Climate science and fetal-tissue research under attack

Posted 14 October 2016 by

Interesting and important program, Science in the crosshairs, on Science Friday today. Host Ira Flatow interviewed Michael Mann of hockey-stick fame, virologist Carolyn Coyne, Lauren Kurtz of the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund, and surgery resident Eugene Gu, who is also the founder of a startup called Ganogen. The impetus for the program, or at least one of the impetuses, was a blizzard of subpoenas issued by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and directed to more than 80 individuals and institutions studying climate science or fetal-tissue research. The chair of the committee is Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee. Rep. Blackburn was invited to participate in the discussion, but her office evidently declined. Dr. Gu, incidentally, is a resident at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, and one of Rep. Blackburn's constituents; while he was not prohibited from taking part in the program, if I understood him correctly, he was not allowed to use the studio at Vanderbilt and had to find another studio elsewhere. Most strikingly, Dr. Gu described an encounter with armed marshals serving him with a subpoena, and commented that his career will probably be damaged by having been the victim of that subpoena. His research at Vanderbilt has been set back by a year. Other guests compared these subpoenas to a witchhunt. Michael Mann discussed death threats that he had received, and he and Ms. Kurtz instructed first-time victims of a subpoena on how to deal with one. They stressed that you need representation: your institution's interests may well not be the same as your interests. Dr. Gu noted that he cannot afford legal representation on a resident's salary but managed to find a lawyer to work with him pro bono. There are not (yet?) a lot of comments on the Science Friday web page, but the fraction that come from deniers such as anti-vaxxers and global-warming deniers was disappointing. One or two set up a false dichotomy: if you have the scientists on the air, why do you not present the opposing view? Because the science is sound and the opposing view is not tenable, and we should not give deniers a platform. (Never mind that they invited Representative Blackburn to join the discussion.) Bottom line: this stuff is worse than creationism by far, but those of us interested in creationism will see a similarity to anti-vaxxism and global-warming denial, in that creationists, anti-vaxxers, and global-warming deniers completely disregard or deny hard evidence and place a treasured belief ahead of actual fact (my words, not Ira Flatow's; he is too polite).

88 Comments

DS · 14 October 2016

I think a class action counter suit would be a goof idea. Convict them of wrongful prosecution and get them all kicked put of office. That should send the right message. No Mr. McCarthy, we will not allow that to happen again.

Just Bob · 14 October 2016

DS said: I think a class action counter suit would be a goof idea. Convict them of wrongful prosecution and get them all kicked put of office. That should send the right message. No Mr. McCarthy, we will not allow that to happen again.
I don't think there's any prosecution involved. I assume they're subpoenaed to testify before a congressional committee. But that's bad enough: time away from work, including preparation; expense; public exposure; having to sit and take it as rightwing nutcase congressmen excoriate you in public, and potentially on CNN. 'Witch hunt' is the right term, even when no legal prosecution results.

Pierce R. Butler · 14 October 2016

Rep. Blackburn's just phoning it in - what a piker!

She didn't subpoena James Hansen, or anybody in Planned Parenthood, or either Clinton, or even Al Gore.

Doesn't Blackburn know there's an election on?

Matt Young · 14 October 2016

Rep. Blackburn’s just phoning it in - what a piker!

I do not understand - did she phone in after the segment was broadcast? Do you have a link? The link I provided still says, "(Science Friday offered Representative Blackburn’s office a chance to respond to these criticisms. As of this article’s publication, we have not received a statement.)."

Eric Finn · 14 October 2016

Science is an endeavour for increasing our understanding about how our environment works.

Democracy is a political form of government, in which the majority decides the course of actions.

Winston Churchill said: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” Maybe he had in mind that the people could vote for an option that is clearly against the best current (scientific) knowledge.

I do not endorse a society governed by scientist. Even so, I think it would be wise to take into account the finds in science also in political decision making.

It appears to me that the motivation to attack science is always that the finds in the science (and the implications of those finds) are not pleasing to a person or a group. The motivation may be ideological (creationism) or simply political (climate change denial). Either way, it is perfectly allowed to oppose science in a democratic society. And – it is always a political decision to finance research on fetus tissue or space exploration.

Things get worse, when science denial is justified by mangling scientific concepts. It is understandable that at least some of the scientists will respond (3rd task of the scientists). You can believe what you like and vote as you like, but science is not democratic. Solid evidence is needed.

Any human society offers ways to misuse the very accepted rules that intend to protect the individuals. Lawsuits can be used to harass others. Police banging aggressively on the door might be frightening, but it is totally another beast. This incident, which probably seeks to add a human perspective to the story, might reflect inadequate training of the police force in the US. It is not part of science denial.

DS · 15 October 2016

"If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." Thomas Jefferson

If the politicians refuse to listen to the scientists, if they ignore them or persecute them, if they pretend that a scientific consensus does not exist, then that society is doomed. That is exactly what is happening in the United States. We are seriously considering a candidate for president who is on record as saying that climate change is a hoax. If that person is elected, you can expect more inquisitions and witch hunts. Climate change is an inconvenient truth, but truth none the less.

Joe Felsenstein · 15 October 2016

Matt Young said:

Rep. Blackburn’s just phoning it in - what a piker!

I do not understand - did she phone in after the segment was broadcast? Do you have a link? The link I provided still says, "(Science Friday offered Representative Blackburn’s office a chance to respond to these criticisms. As of this article’s publication, we have not received a statement.)."
Matt -- thanks for this post. But do look up the slang phrase "phone it in".

Joe Felsenstein · 15 October 2016

Including fetal tissue research together with climate change is bizarre. The Discovery Institute does something similar when it also includes "human cloning" in the list of theories in their model "academic freedom" law.

But, unlike the other topics, fetal tissue research is not the target of denial. If it were being denied that it was possible then there would be no reason for objecting to this research because it wouldn't work anyway.

No, the real criterion for adding "fetal tissue research" to the list is "things Rep. Blackburn is unhappy with".

Pierce R. Butler · 15 October 2016

Matt Young: ... did she phone in after the segment was broadcast?

As Joe F notes, I used the phrase metaphorically, to indicate she was just going through the motions, not giving her project its full demagogic due. (See Benghazi hearings, etc.)

Pls recalibrate your sarcasmometer.

Matt Young · 15 October 2016

My sarcasmometer is fine: it is expressions coined after 2000 for which I am not responsible. Rep. Blackburn was supposed to join them by telephone -- at least was invited to do so -- but she never, um, called in. I wish she were only going through the motions, but I am afraid that she has so far at a minimum inconvenienced at least 80 individuals and institutions.

DS · 15 October 2016

Matt Young said: My sarcasmometer is fine: it is expressions coined after 2000 for which I am not responsible. Rep. Blackburn was supposed to join them by telephone -- at least was invited to do so -- but she never, um, called in. I wish she were only going through the motions, but I am afraid that she has so far at a minimum inconvenienced at least 80 individuals and institutions.
And that should be grounds for prosecution for judicial misconduct and a class action law suit for harassment. "I don't like it" is not justification for a congressional hearing. DIdn't we learn anything from McCarthy? Are we still going to let crap like this go on in this country? What's next, evolutionary biologists? Has she actually charged anyone with anything? Has she actually uncovered any illegal activity? Is this just another political power play? Can't people just refuse to testify or plead a fifth of vodka or something?

Just Bob · 15 October 2016

DS said: And that should be grounds for prosecution for judicial misconduct and a class action law suit for harassment. "I don't like it" is not justification for a congressional hearing. DIdn't we learn anything from McCarthy? Are we still going to let crap like this go on in this country? What's next, evolutionary biologists? Has she actually charged anyone with anything? Has she actually uncovered any illegal activity? Is this just another political power play? Can't people just refuse to testify or plead a fifth of vodka or something?
I agree in principle, but these aren't judicial hearings, so there's no judicial misconduct. Also, you can't sue a congressman: "The Constitutuon's Speech and Debate Clause shields Members of Congress from being brought to Court for their actions (or inactions) in Congress so they can debate (or not) freely." https://www.quora.com/Why-cant-groups-of-citizens-sue-Congressmen-women-for-not-doing-their-jobs-as-the-majority-wants-Why-can-they-violate-the-Constitution Also, I believe a congressional committee isn't necessarily looking for illegality, and doesn't need to be. The only thing they can charge anyone with is contempt of Congress for refusing to testify. A Committee can hold hearings merely to seek information, and AIUI, most are not aimed at uncovering wrongdoing at all. Yes, this is a political play, probably mainly aimed at kissing up to Blackburn's Tea Party Crazies back home. It doesn't have to really accomplish anything if she (and maybe some other Republican members) can be seen putting them commie, tree-huggin', fetus-sellin', atheist scientists in their place via ranting speeches disguised as questions for witnesses.

Joe Felsenstein · 15 October 2016

Let me correct my comment above. I was thinking of the Discovery Institute and state legislators who have introduced "academic freedom" bills that has a list of topics that they are upset with, with "human cloning" tacked on at the end in an illogical way.

But reading the text of the NPR story linked to above, I see that Representative Blackburn concentrated on fetal tissue research from the start. So it is not a bizarre tacked-on issue. It is just that she has run wild, making it clear that legislative intent is not what she is concentrating on.

quentin-long · 16 October 2016

sez Matt Young: "My sarcasmometer is fine: it is expressions coined after 2000 for which I am not responsible."

If this webpage can be trusted, the idiom 'phone it in' has been in live use since before the 1950s…

Donald Trump is not the problem; Trump is a symptom. The actual problem is the however-many tens of millions of people who made Trump's candidacy possible. I don't pretend to have any solutions for this problem, but at the very least, one thing I think might be helpful is for people to stop voting Republican. For any office whatsoever. The GOP's active embrace of the bigoted, ignorant, White segment of the population has won them big political gains over the past few decades; as such, the GOP almost certainly does not see any reason to stop embracing bigoted White ignoramuses. But if membership in the Republican party becomes a liability—if that "R" next to a candidate's name starts to mean fewer and fewer votes — then the GOP will find a reason to stop embracing bigoted White ignoramuses. Or if the GOP keeps on keepin' on with their current playbook, it will continue to hang onto its majority status among an ever-shrinking demographic.

If the US population chooses, collectively, to stop voting for Republicans, either the GOP will become sane again, or it will become a political irrelevance. And… you know what? Either way is fine by me.

DS · 16 October 2016

So, if they are not being charged with anything, why do they need representation? What would be the penalty for refusing to testify? How does a subpoena set your research back one year?

If congress wants to become educated by scientists so that they could make rational choices regarding science policies, they are certainly going about it the wrong way. If they don't want to become educated by the experts, why not? Are they going to use this circus as a pretense to cut funding to these areas of study? Is there anything that can be done to stop this madness? Anything? Or are scientists going to become the new "communist threat"?

Maybe there should be an investigation of the climate deniers, in order to determine where their finding is coming from. After that, it might be harder for anyone to call climate change a "hoax'.

RJ · 16 October 2016

Climate deniers don't receive federal research funds. So this sort of 'investigation' would not happen.

Yes, it is very disruptive to have people arbitrarily come in and require you to provide records. It is unjust if it sets back your research for one afternoon.

Someone commented on an ignorant electorate. Well, there always will be large numbers of ignorant and bloody-minded people. I don't know what the rules are for Congressional subpoenas, but if the hard-right faction can elect just a few members, it won't matter even if the vast majority oppose them.

Scientists need to form a national organization, or a branch within an existing organization, to oppose this harassment. We know what this Representative is doing; she aims to punish people who disagree with her. Again, I don't know what are the rules for this sort of thing, but there must be some limits on the triviality of Congressional subpoenas. Fighting back needs organization, and there has to be some point at which this harassment can be proved to be pure abuse of power.

Possibly the researchers can sue the government if they cannot sue the individual involved.

Can members of Congress be impeached?

Matt Young · 16 October 2016

If this webpage can be trusted, the idiom ‘phone it in’ has been in live use since before the 1950s…

Well, I trust Ben Zimmer more than I trust the website I found, which I thought implied that the idiom dated from around 2003. Now that I scan Mr. Zimmer's article, I sort of remember actors talking about phoning in a performance, rather than actually being there (figuratively, of course). But I have to confess that I am otherwise unfamiliar with the idiom. That said, Rep. Blackburn may not have phoned in to Science Friday, but I presume that she is doing exactly what she wants to do: harass and intimidate scientists. That she has no legislative purpose does not mean that she is phoning it in in the sense that the original commenter meant. DS asks, Why do you need representation? I cannot tell you in detail, but if you do not provide everything that is requested, you risk a citation for contempt of Congress. I know that several lawyers follow this blog. Could we get one of them to explain in more detail? What would be the penalty for not testifying? As Just Bob says, probably a citation for contempt of Congress. Congress can compel your testimony under the guise of gathering information, whether or not you are suspected of a crime and whether or not they are truly seeking information. Why does it set your research back one year? I cannot tell you that in detail either, but I assume that complying with a congressional subpoena is time-consuming, at a minimum. Besides gathering the required information, you probably have countless meetings with your lawyer, the university's lawyer, the department head, the dean, the provost, and God knows who else. I once spent hours of my time, the department head's time, and the lawyer's time when a Colorado congressman charged that I had improperly used the university's e-mail to query state school board members as to their position on teaching creationism (or something like that). I simply cannot imagine how much time I might have spent to respond to a congressional subpoena. Perhaps we can get Dr. Gu to describe his ordeal, but I would hate to make an additional demand on his time.

eric · 16 October 2016

Just Bob said: Also, I believe a congressional committee isn't necessarily looking for illegality, and doesn't need to be. The only thing they can charge anyone with is contempt of Congress for refusing to testify. A Committee can hold hearings merely to seek information, and AIUI, most are not aimed at uncovering wrongdoing at all.
True, but calling 80 people is still a pretty d*ck move. There is not a chance every one of those people speak; maybe four or five do. She has a suit against Planned Parenthood and a Bioscience firm; what she's doing here is hoping politically novice and naive scientists will give her juicy quotes that she can use in those suits. The good news is, scientists proper aren't her target: PP is. Though that may be no consolation for scientists who are also supporters of women's rights. But the really bad news is, she's in a safe seat and has been for a decade. Which means this is not merely an October vote-getter, and will probably continue after November.

Joe Felsenstein · 17 October 2016

A good lawyer might be able to insist on Gu being granted immunity from federal prosecution for all matters testified to. Otherwise Gu would just take the Fifth Amendment on all questions.

TomS · 17 October 2016

Joe Felsenstein said: A good lawyer might be able to insist on Gu being granted immunity from federal prosecution for all matters testified to. Otherwise Gu would just take the Fifth Amendment on all questions.
How much does a good Washington lawyer charge to accompany someone in testimony before Congress?

RJ · 17 October 2016

Maybe each scientist should plead the fifth to every question. But we should note that scientists don't have to be charged with a crime or even suspected to be subpoenaed in this way. There even are circumstances, not obtaining here, in which Congressional hearings might be legitimate even when crime is not suspected - the people are paying for this you know.

There is every reason to think that in this case, the subpoenas will be given and acted upon, but the hearings won't be scheduled. As we know, the Congressperson's game is to injure these scientists, not to engage in a legitimate fact-finding investigation. She will achieve her goals even if the hearings are never scheduled; testimony need not be taken to injure the scientists.

So pleading the fifth does not solve the main problem, which is delaying and inconveniencing the scientists with paperwork and the hand-over of records. This person, and the Republican Party generally, are just looking for any means to hurt people they don't like.

DS · 17 October 2016

RJ said: - the people are paying for this you know.
Yes they certainly are. That is precisely the point. The people paid for the science to be done in the first place. Another part of the the government can't come in and deny the very science they choose to fund, just because they don't like the results. Besides, if it were federally funded research, the scientists already had to adhere to federal regulations. They have already been selected and prioritized. If there are no charges, if no wrong doing has even been alleged, it's just harassment pure and simple. Just because one party couldn't stop them from getting the funding doesn't mean that that party can now try to sabotage everything that has been accomplished. Shooting the messenger isn't only going to end poorly just for the messenger. And the people are paying for the hearings as well. Are their best interests really being served by a witch hunt completely divorced from reality? The people will also pay for denying science or impeding science, they just don't know how big that price will be.

Joe Felsenstein · 17 October 2016

If Congress is scheduling hearings to genuinely investigate what legislation is needed, they would not engage is massive over-subpoena-ing. If they were engaged in a McCarthy-style witchhunt in an atmosphere of general hysteria, they need hearings to have drama in which the victims are pressured to "name names" of more victims. Usually the issue of legislation gets shoved into the background and more or less forgotten, as the objective is to show that Congress is acting boldly to hunt down the victims, and actually coming to a conclusion and issuing a report or proposing a law would leave no excuse for doing more hearings.

The present subpoenas sound like they are designed to generate publicity for Rep. Blackburn. With no more general witchhunt under way, the hearings themselves may never occur. Nevertheless the people subpoenaed need to fund a lawyer and prepare as they never know when they might actually be called.

I remember the McCarthy period vividly -- the present atmosphere is nothing like it. This sounds like just a local sideshow, though a nasty one.

eric · 17 October 2016

DS said: The people paid for the science to be done in the first place. Another part of the the government can't come in and deny the very science they choose to fund, just because they don't like the results.
In theory, sure they can. CDC, HHS, and OSHA could all disagree on safe exposure limits for some chemical, for example, because they cite different research or have different views on the credibility of different studies. This is typically parsed as "CDC does not concur with HHS on..." When you see "does not concur", that's bureaucratic speak for "our part of the government thinks their part of the government is off their rocker on this issue." Likewise, a legislator may weight different scientific (or pseudo-scientific) inputs differently from one or more of those organizations, arriving at a conclusion different from CDCs, or HHS', or OSHA's...or all three.
if no wrong doing has even been alleged, it's just harassment pure and simple.
Yes probably - or worse. She could be using the subpoenas as an implicit threat, to make a university president or corporate CEO think that maybe supporting this research is not worth the hassle or the risk of lost federal funds. This is especially true in today's budget climate; it may be hard to hide a vindictive cut when budgets are growing, but when they're shrinking anyway, its trivial. Having said that, its allowable harassment. In the same way that micromanagement can be considered harassing but sometimes bosses do it anyway. Congress can request information from programs and institutions receiving federal dollars as part of their oversight role. And because they have the power of the purse, people generally accede to those requests.
Just because one party couldn't stop them from getting the funding doesn't mean that that party can now try to sabotage everything that has been accomplished. Shooting the messenger isn't only going to end poorly just for the messenger. And the people are paying for the hearings as well. Are their best interests really being served by a witch hunt completely divorced from reality? The people will also pay for denying science or impeding science, they just don't know how big that price will be.
All true. But in the US system, these problems are hypothetically fixed by election (i.e., the people getting ticked off that their representative's subpoenas are wasteful, pointless grandstanding and not reelecting her), not by limiting Congress' power to oversee programs that they (partially) fund.

RJ · 17 October 2016

Hey DS, I hope you didn't think I disagree with you - seeing as I said very explicitly that these subpoenas are designed solely to harass. And I certainly agree that this bullshit clearly is wasting resources the government has put into this research.

That said, yes there are circumstances in which it would be appropriate to have Congressional hearings even with no wrongdoing alleged (eric provided one example; others are easy to generate). That does not in itself constitute harassment.

What I was saying is that there needs to be a way of remedy in a case like this, when there is not a legitimate reason to have hearings. Elections can't fix this if any individual member is free to harass federally funded scientists for political reasons. Scientists need to fight back, and now.

Can a member of Congress be impeached? If there is, there would be little prospect of success. But no matter; it would be embarrassing to that member's party, deservedly. Let's find a way that scientists can fight back, by suing or filing articles of impeachment. Members of Congress need to be disincentivized from this sort of nonsense, right now, or it will just continue.

Hardball time is here.

DS · 17 October 2016

RJ,

No problem. It seems we are in broad agreement.

However, I feel that it is imperative that political leaders not be allowed to abuse their power to promote their own ideological or religious agenda at the expense of their constituency. If that is indeed the motivation here, it is an egregious abuse of power. This is exactly the kind of thing that destroys faith in science and government. It is disturbing in the extreme that there is no recourse to curtail such behavior. Fortunately, those who would abuse that power are impotent to change the facts of science, so harassment is all they can cling to.

If anyone thinks that it is OK to allow such behavior, just remember, evolutionary biologists could be next.

Joe Felsenstein · 17 October 2016

I should just comment that yes, there are ways that hearings can be held to explore important issues. One can invite people to testify, without subpoena-ing them. They might be happy to give their opinions and explain them.

RJ · 17 October 2016

I think that given the present audience, there is no need to hedge your words..."If that is indeed...". It is clear, it is obvious, that this politician is abusing power by abusing scientists and thereby vitiates the efficacy of both government and science. Whether that is true is not the interesting question, because it is obvious to us supporters of science.

The interesting question: can we do something about it, something more proactive than waiting and hoping for an eventual sea change in the electorate and politicians?

Joe Felsenstein · 17 October 2016

Legally, you can't do anything about it.

eric · 18 October 2016

RJ said: Elections can't fix this if any individual member is free to harass federally funded scientists for political reasons. Scientists need to fight back, and now. Can a member of Congress be impeached? If there is, there would be little prospect of success. But no matter; it would be embarrassing to that member's party, deservedly. Let's find a way that scientists can fight back, by suing or filing articles of impeachment. Members of Congress need to be disincentivized from this sort of nonsense, right now, or it will just continue.
AFAIK no, members of Congress cannot be impeached. The Constitution only mentions Congress having the power to impeach [the President]; it doesn't mention any branch of government having any power to impeach representatives. Secondly, AFAIK the courts have consistently ruled that the qualifications listed in the Constitution are the sole qualifications that must be met. IOW, no State can add more requirements to the list. But from a practical standpoint, I'm not sure any formal removal process would be more effective than the 2-year reelection cycle we already have. That's a short enough time horizon that simple public condemnation is going to be about as effective and as timely as any formal process you want to institute.

eric · 18 October 2016

Joe Felsenstein said: Legally, you can't do anything about it.
I'd caveat that; there is no formal removal or punishment process. Which is really what RJ is looking for. You can certainly do things about a bad representative. Run against them. Campaign for one of their primary competitors. Campaign for one of their general election competitors. Take ads out in their district newspapers explaining and condemning their actions. Write op-eds doing the same. Write blog pieces doing the same. And so on. Since Rep. Blackburn appears to be representing a very safe Republican district, I think your best bet in this case is probably finding a more science-friendly Republican competitor who would be willing to run against her in the 2018 election. Another thing that can be done (but probably not by you, me, RJ, etc.) is to get them removed from their committee and/or sub-committee roles. AIUI, this would remove the Rep's ability to do things like issue subpoenas or call witnesses. However, removal from these sorts of positions typically requires a representative to greatly anger their own party's leadership, so its hard for regular people to influence. Rep. Blackburn's power to harass scientists appears to be stemming from her position as Chairman of the House select sub-committee investigating Planned Parenthood (see here. So if you want to get her removed, you'll have to somehow convince Paul Ryan et al. that her actions are costing the Republican party votes. My guess is, there is no realistic chance of that happening, at least not at the moment. Public opinion would have to turn heavily against the political theater that is the GOP's 'investigation' into PP. When that happens, the special sub-committee will be considered more of a detriment than an asset, and the GOP will disband it (probably with much fanfare about mission accomplished).

DS · 18 October 2016

eric said: Rep. Blackburn's power to harass scientists appears to be stemming from her position as Chairman of the House select sub-committee investigating Planned Parenthood
On what basis did she initiate a hearing on climate change? Is that part of the same hearing as fetal tissue research? If so, what is the possible connection between climate change science and planned parenthood? Is she afraid that people will not want to have kids if they figure out how badly we have screwed up the planet? Or is this a separate hearing for some other committee that she is on? And how much government money is involved in climate change and fetal tissue research? Maybe she should be holding hearings on military spending. But I guess that would't go over so well for her party in an election year.

RJ · 18 October 2016

I find it hard to believe that there literally is no limit to the triviality of information requests by Congress. Can Congressman Joe Schomo of Iowa subpoena records from federally-funded electrical engineering researchers because he dislikes the hair colour of engineers at his alma mater, claiming that hair dye is a safety hazard?

At any rate, I hope that professional organizations and university representatives will at least strongly advocate on behalf of scientists victimized by assholery, loudly and unambiguously pushing the massage to national media that this politician (and others like her) is attempting only to injure people doing work she doesn't like. I hope that university researchers of all disciplines will bring up the matter every single time public perception and support of universities is brought up. People should be prepared to be a little bit unreasonable on their own behalf.

I see here a small group of individuals forced to bear a burden on their own, which belongs not to them but to the research and academic community.

Just Bob · 18 October 2016

DS said: what is the possible connection between climate change science and planned parenthood?
IT'S ALL PART OF THE CONSPIRACY!

eric · 18 October 2016

DS said:
eric said: Rep. Blackburn's power to harass scientists appears to be stemming from her position as Chairman of the House select sub-committee investigating Planned Parenthood
On what basis did she initiate a hearing on climate change?
I have no idea, but its not uncommon for congresscritters to hold multiple positions on multiple committees or subcommittees.
Or is this a separate hearing for some other committee that she is on?
That would be my guess, but its just a guess.

eric · 18 October 2016

RJ said: I find it hard to believe that there literally is no limit to the triviality of information requests by Congress. Can Congressman Joe Schomo of Iowa subpoena records from federally-funded electrical engineering researchers because he dislikes the hair colour of engineers at his alma mater, claiming that hair dye is a safety hazard?
Schomo can subpoena engineers to come testify on hair dye. Opening records that are considered to be 'work product' by the University may be a slightly different situation. Again though, I'd argue that the important limits are the pragmatic ones: (a) ticking off your party with embarrassing requests can get you booted from your positions of power (plus, loss of the national party's support in your next campaign), and (b) time spent in hearings is time that could be spent campaigning, so congresscritters only do it when they think its worth the time and effort. Its not like she has infinite time to hold political theater; she's going to prioritize her actions the same way we all do. Calling a hearing on engineer hair color is allowed by the rules, yes. But its unlikely to get over the priority bar and unlikely to be seen by party leadership as helpful. Therefore, its unlikely anyone would do that, even out of vindictiveness.
At any rate, I hope that professional organizations and university representatives will at least strongly advocate on behalf of scientists victimized by assholery, loudly and unambiguously pushing the massage to national media that this politician (and others like her) is attempting only to injure people doing work she doesn't like.
I have no idea what the relevant University administrations have said about the PP-related requests, but both UVA (Mann's former place of employment) and Penn State (his current one) have been reasonably strong in supporting Mann's climate change research against GOP political attacks. And if it's any consolation, in the UVA case the courts did declare Virginia Attorney General Cuccinelli's attempt to sub-poena Mann and release his research to be illegal. Three years later, Cuccinelli lost in his bid to become Governor, perhaps due in part to his attacking UVA and a UVA scientist. Probably not the smartest move for someone who wants to become governor of Virginia.

harold · 18 October 2016

There is only one solution.

Elections.

Where possible, vote for their Democratic challengers.

If the Democrats are in the majority all of this stops.

Unfortunately, each party holds regional bases of power. You're not going to get rid of these people by supporting their Democratic opponent if they represent some district in Oklahoma that is 98% Republican.

Primary challenges won't work, either, because you can't find a red state Republican who isn't a rabid climate science denier and anti-contraception panderer to challenge them.

The Republicans are gone insane, but have a strong base of power. A Democratic majority shuts this down, but if a protest somewhere gets violent or OPEC raises the price of oil, Americans outside of the Republican power zone, in "purple" states, may vote in a bunch of telegenic "moderate" Republicans and the whole circus starts all over again.

There is literally nothing you can do except try to keep Republicans out of power.

I am in a position to do something about this. My congressional district is contested. Clinton is going to win my state, but the congressional district is contested between a suburban Democrat and a fake "moderate" Republican who is in a state of Trump panic. So I'll vote for the Democrat.

If you live in a district that is uncontested one way or another you can't do much. You can contribute to Democrats in competitive races.

One party is gone insane. No matter what you feel about the other party, it is imperative to limit the power of the insane party. That is the state of American politics.

I'd love to have more choices and not be locked into supporting a flawed but okay consensus party, but right now, that's literally all there is. When the dike is leaking and all you have is a finger, you have to use a finger in the dike strategy. Vote for the Democrats, hold your nose if you have to, and pray to all that is holy that some idiot thing like a Democratic sex scandal or a jerk burning the American flag on the fourth of July outside a VA hospital doesn't panic the herd back toward the poison grass again.

eric · 18 October 2016

harold said: Primary challenges won't work, either, because you can't find a red state Republican who isn't a rabid climate science denier and anti-contraception panderer to challenge them.
They exist, thought they're not as common as I'd like them to be. But more relevantly, they can be developed. The tea party groomed new candidates to feed their group's appetite for more right-wing candidates. There's no reason moderate republicans can't do the same. And that strategy is far, far more likely to be successful (compared to your choice of 'vote Democrat') in heavily GOP-gerrymandered districts...which may be literally most of them, nowadays.

harold · 18 October 2016

There’s no reason moderate republicans can’t do the same.
I would say there is, a simple reason. I wish it weren't true. Outside of Utah, there is no constituency for them. I'll speak more about Utah at the end. Oklahoma has a Democratic party, and its Democrats are pretty conservative already, and they get elected once in a blue moon. It would be like trying to create anti-gay, anti-abortion, immigrant bashing candidates to run in Democratic primaries. What's the point. No Democrat would vote for that in a Democratic primary. We already know that we can vote for that in the general election just by choosing the Republican. This isn't an economics blog, but I'll point out that lower wages and more regressive taxes haven't created an economic boom. Inching back away from those things under Democrats seems to lift us out of recessions and then snapping back to them every time Republicans have power always seems to generate a recession. So there's precious little market for an "economically right wing but pro-science party". Because that would be kind of like an "admit that Santa Claus is imaginary but believe in the Easter Bunny" party. It's very hard to maintain reality denial on any level without having it creep into every level. If you're already arguing that cutting taxes on the wealthy will reduce the deficit and driving down wages will magically make jobs appear out of nowhere (a fair paraphrase of some Republican economic claims), it's a generous concession if you even admit that the sun rises in the east. On top of that, everybody already knows that they can vote Libertarian. Trying to fix the Republican party is like trying to fix the leak on the Titanic. It's over. Man the lifeboats and let it go down. Utah is a weird exception to many rules. I haven't live in Utah but lived nearby and knew a decent number of Mormons. It's the "red state with blue state statistics in health, teenage pregnancy, education, crime, etc" and there's a reason for that. Mormonism may be nuts in many ways, and they are very red state on many issues, but it isn't a fake political construct like the rest of the religious right. If Mormons were like typical right wing Christians, if Mormonism says don't drink whiskey, they'd drink a gallon every day, then say they "repent" and are "forgiven" but "New Yorkers" (other than Trump) are all going to hell because they accidentally smelled some whiskey in someone else's glass. But for better or worse, they aren't like that. They just don't drink whiskey. They like working hard in school and getting good grades, and they like science, despite persistent negative findings on the Planet Kolob. So in Utah, yes, a science nerd moderate Republican might have a chance. Elsewhere we see clear proof that Republicans would rather have a guy who goes on Howard Stern to brag about grabbing women, but denies global warming, than anyone who questions what they care about. I truly apologize for the bluntness of some of my points, but this is a political issue.

eric · 18 October 2016

harold said:
There’s no reason moderate republicans can’t do the same.
I would say there is, a simple reason. I wish it weren't true. Outside of Utah, there is no constituency for them.
That's the popular wisdom. But nobody in 2006 could've imagined the Tea Party being a thing (because it was in part a response to a black President), nobody in 2014 imagined Trump would be a thing, and so I suspect that in 2020 it may be worthwhile for mainstream Republicans to try an anti-Trump even though we can't imagine it being a thing. This is particularly true in regards to women and latino voters: if Trump gets the absolute thrashing at the polls in those two demographics as expected, the GOP is going to have to do something about it.
Trying to fix the Republican party is like trying to fix the leak on the Titanic. It's over. Man the lifeboats and let it go down.
I think that's wishful thinking on Dem parts. Over the last century the two parties have made many big changes to their platforms, but they haven't gone away or been replaced. I expect the same thing is going to happen to the GOP over the next 10-20 years: there will be big changes to the GOP platform, it will not get replaced by a different party.
Elsewhere we see clear proof that Republicans would rather have a guy who goes on Howard Stern to brag about grabbing women, but denies global warming, than anyone who questions what they care about.
Republican men don't seem bothered by it, but Republican women (at least in political office) do. And since women are now a majority of voters, that's a problem. Since we're being blunt, I'll put it to you this way: Trump's strategy of being the macho guy is losing him votes. He continues to use it because he's a political novice, not because he is some stealthy political guru than knows what the public wants more than the pollsters and pundits. Republicans do care, and that's why Trump's numbers are worse than any candidates' since Carter in 1980. What we're seeing is a failed campaign strategy in action. Could he win? Yes, sure. Stranger things have happened. But no Republican in the future is going to look back at the 2016 Trump campaign and say "mmmm, I gotta run my campaign like that."

RJ · 18 October 2016

I don't see anything to apologize for, harold. I'd be blunter; the Republicans are against America; they hate America. The Republicans are traitors, not simply wrong. The Dems, in contrast, are mostly sincere in their refusal to admit they also are right-wingers; they don't want to believe it. On a certain level, their adherence to neoliberal dreams also is irrational, but at least they do it with a smile.

A couple of things though.

I have personal experience with Mormonism and while it is likely that they are a qualitatively less hypocritical lot than most of the fundies, there are plenty of secret drinkers and pornography consumers there too. Possibly the hypocrisy is greater for converts whose cultural heritage is Catholic. Every one of my family members has now abandoned the LDS.

As to conservatism, there are a fair number of places in middle America where the mainstream Dems also are Kool-Aid drinkers. Anti-Semitic, anti-evolution, etc.

I think this already has been implied or said by others, but the evidence is that the non-crazy conservatives already have switched to the Dems. And H. Clinton would have been too right-wing to get the 1952 Republican nomination. I also don't have direct evidence for this, but it seems certain that conservative scientists have also made the switch, crazy or not. A reasonably intelligent person can only take so much constant hatred.

harold · 18 October 2016

RJ -

I strongly agree with your analysis (as always, I also agree with much of what Eric said).

I hope Eric is right.

In the end my disagreement, if you can call it that, with him, is pure semantics anyway.

The Democratic party didn't go away, but the Democratic party of 1900 is long gone in every way. There's just a party now, which has a right wing side favoring austerity economics and a low threshold for bombing, represented by Hillary Clinton. And there's a progressive side favoring the return to policies that worked great when we had them, and adoption of a few obvious policies from abroad - affordable education, decent wages, universal health care coverage, for example. I'm also against executions and private prisons. I may someday see progress on private prisons. However, both sides are genuinely opposed to discrimination on the basis of gender, race, orientation, or religion. And both sides of the Democratic party are reasonably opposed to proposing cuts in things like social security. My subjective sense is that nobody would love to "privatize social security" more than Hillary "quarter mil for a fifteen minute talk at Golden Sachs, and that's just the fee for the talk and doesn't include the private jet, five star hotel suite, five star meals, accommodations for aides, etc" Clinton, but she knows that she chose a certain party and can't go too far outside their boundaries. She got lucky running against Trump.

So sure, maybe people like Eric can bring about changes, so that some completely different party bearing little or no resemblance is called the "Republican party" in the future, and more power to them if they can.

Trump is an incredibly gifted salesman. Politics was a mistake for him. He gained tens of millions of fanatically loyal customers with his act, but in politics only the side with the most customers gets anything. I do expect to see the Trump Network, with Ailes on board, making a solid profit, soon after the election.

harold · 18 October 2016

Trump’s strategy of being the macho guy is losing him votes.
It sure is, it's losing him women's votes. But there's a problem for Republicans. He's also gained some votes. The model that worked from 1980 to 2016 was to put up some guy who's clean cut and polite enough not to scare off the ladies, but who serves up dog whistle code for the right wing guys. But now those guys have had a taste Trump. They don't even care if he wins the election or if it turns out to be "rigged". They want more Trump. You're not going to be able to offer them some Ayn Rand-loving dork who "condemns" vulgarity and offers up dog whistle gruel. Sure they want the "libtards" to lose, but they want Trump even more than they want that. Try to go back to the original 1988 George Bush, and you've created a three party system. There will be the Democrats, the Bush Party ("Dubya" not welcome but prime seats reserved for GHW and Jeb), and the Trump Party.

RJ · 18 October 2016

Perhaps you don't need to be reminded that the Democratic Party in 1900 was the home of the KKK. Then as now, I suppose, you had to take the (very) bad with the (sort of) good.

On the bright side, I've heard HRC say she wants to get rid of private prisons in the near-term, and she sounded like she actually meant it. Maybe next is a realization that private control of commodity markets and utilities is a (damned obvious) threat to national security.

PaulBC · 18 October 2016

About the only thing I disagree with in harold's analysis is any comparison between the GOP and the Titanic. I suspect they will come up with a way to regroup. They have congress and will almost certainly hold onto the house, state governments, and thoroughly gerrymandered districts. They'll be here for a while. It won't require a significant change in climate science denial until reality progresses for at least another decade and they look even more foolish than now. It certainly won't involve moderation in any sense. It also won't involve the outreach to non-white voters promised in 2012. But they'll ditch Trump and somehow get their voters in line (How? well, I am glad it's their problem, not mine). They can't win with this approach in the long run, but they can do a lot of damage in the medium run.
harold said: There's just a party now, which has a right wing side favoring austerity economics and a low threshold for bombing, represented by Hillary Clinton. And there's a progressive side favoring the return to policies that worked great when we had them, and adoption of a few obvious policies from abroad - affordable education, decent wages, universal health care coverage, for example. I'm also against executions and private prisons. I may someday see progress on private prisons. However, both sides are genuinely opposed to discrimination on the basis of gender, race, orientation, or religion. And both sides of the Democratic party are reasonably opposed to proposing cuts in things like social security. My subjective sense is that nobody would love to "privatize social security" more than Hillary "quarter mil for a fifteen minute talk at Golden Sachs, and that's just the fee for the talk and doesn't include the private jet, five star hotel suite, five star meals, accommodations for aides, etc" Clinton, but she knows that she chose a certain party and can't go too far outside their boundaries.
Pretty plausible, though I do not believe Hillary Clinton in 2016 wants to privatize social security. Certainly many moderate Democrats would have wanted to 20 years ago, but... is Stockholm Syndrome curable? Haven't we finally ditched Reagan? Obama still suffers from Reagan Stockholm Syndrome, but it's mild. Hillary Clinton more so, but I don't think she currently believes in the privatization of social security. She's happy to keep it going as it is and repair it along the way. I italicized part of what you wrote above, because I feel it bears emphasis, and I wish some of my Sanders-supporting relatives could see it that way. The Democratic party is big and unruly, but it shares some common values and these are quite distinct from the GOP, or what it's become since Nixon's southern strategy. I had a similar observation I made right after the Democratic National Convention, which I'll quote below: Think of two orthogonal axes of national progress. The first one is to find things about America that aren't good enough and make them better. The second is to identify what is is generally agreed on as good and extend those benefits to everyone, particularly those currently suffering discrimination. I think that the Sanders movement has mostly been focused on the first axis. The Democratic national convention could, by contrast, be seen as a celebration of progress along the second axis. And while I think both axes are important, it's my view that the second one is more important and more tractable as well.

eric · 18 October 2016

harold said: I may someday see progress on private prisons. However, both sides are genuinely opposed to discrimination on the basis of gender, race, orientation, or religion. And both sides of the Democratic party are reasonably opposed to proposing cuts in things like social security. My subjective sense is that nobody would love to "privatize social security" more than Hillary
Wow, our perceptions of her and the Dems are totally different. Obama already announced an end to private federal prisons; this is a done deal in terms of Democratic politics. The federal system /= all 50 state systems, but it is a big part of our justice system. So there has been progress, and if you don't see it, you've IMO set yourself a very high bar for what counts as progress. On social security: Hillary has publicly spoken out against privatizing it...in 1997. This is not new territory, and that was well before she had skin in the game. So I have no idea where you've gotten the idea that her true wish is to privatize it.
She got lucky running against Trump.
I totally agree. Its hard to imagine someone so unpopular being elected President aganist anyone else. Trump's idiocy and unpopularity is why she's going to win.
So sure, maybe people like Eric can bring about changes, so that some completely different party bearing little or no resemblance is called the "Republican party" in the future, and more power to them if they can.
For the record, I consider myself more of an independent leaning liberal. I have no intention of helping the GOP do anything. I just think lefty reports of the death of the GOP are greatly exaggerated. Look, we just went through this. Obama's 2008 victory was accompanied by liberals saying the political landscape had completely and permanently changed, and that the GOP would not survive unless they learned how to be responsive to minority concerns. Then the GOP came back strong in the 2010 midterm, baffling those same liberals. They continued to hold the lead in legislative races in 2012 and 2014. My prediction is that Clinton will win in a landslide. Because people vote party ticket, 2016 will also see big gains for the Dems in the House and Senate. Then, just like in 2008, lefties will again proclaim that this is a sign that the GOP is dead, and that unless they change their demographic base, they'll never be in power again. And then, in 2018, the GOP will retake the Senate and keep the House - baffling those exact same liberals. Do not mistake a victory based on personality and individual candidate preferences for a victory based on some permanent, demographic change.

W. H. Heydt · 18 October 2016

Re: Utah. Consider Jon Huntsman. Former governor of Utah. The only sane Republican in the race when he ran (though he didn't last very long).

After the 2012 election, the GOP put a group together to do a "post motem". This year, no one paid any attention to what they said. After this election, someone could go through, change all the dates, punch up a few points, and reissue the report. After 2012, Bobby Jindal told the Republicans that ehy needed to stop being the "party of stupid". He went on to run--using all the stupid he'd just told them not to be. He didn't even follow his own advice.

Dave Luckett · 19 October 2016

I read discussions of US politics like this one with a horrified fascination. And I worry. I can't believe that a substantial fraction of the US population - approaching half - is actually insane, but I hear Trump speak, and I see evidence for his continued popular support, and I wonder, and shudder.

When he actually dissed a decorated veteran who had died in combat, mort pour la patrie I thought, well that's that. He's gone. A conservative voter base will never tolerate that. I was wrong. When he vented insanity after insanity on the stump, everything from whacko conspiracy theory to birtherism (though he repudiated that, kinda, later), when he flat denied saying things that he was on the public record as saying, I thought, no, surely not. But I was wrong. When his answers to any question about specific policy are vague evasions, or change radically depending on his mood, I thought nobody outside the funny farm could possibly support this. I was wrong. Finally he boasts about sexual assault and FINALLY some of them jump ship. It takes that. And STILL he's in the running, and as eric says, might fall across the line, despite everything. It depends, God help us all, on turnout. If the Democrats don't turn out for Clinton, he could make it. And they might not.

I know that there is no serious constituency for actual socialism in America. OK, I know the reason for that, or think I do, and it's understandable. What I don't understand is how "liberal" came to be a dirty word in the US. I can put your gun fetishism down to history, little as I care for it, and much as I hold it to account for a homicide rate twice or three times that of any other western democracy. But your incarceration rate? Your retention of capital punishment? Your desperate reluctance to allow one-payer taxpayer-funded basic health care, despite the obvious advantages? The queer localisation of your public education system, with the inevitable consequence that the people who need it the most are least likely to get it? The corrosion of your cities themselves?

Sure there are parts of Mexico City or the barrios of South America, or the slums of Bangkok, that rival South Chicago or the south Bronx, or Detroit - but aren't you supposed to be the leaders of the western world? I can't put a name to anything in the UK, or Australia, or Europe generally, that's remotely in the same league. I saw the south side of Chicago - by pure accident and because I didn't know - and it remains graven in my consciousness as something I will give anything I possess rather than see in my own country.

Why do you hate public investment in the public interest so furiously? What on earth has given rise to a class - a large and important class - that votes and militates directly in opposition to its own interest? It defies reason. Why do you think that it is better to give money to a particular candidate's election campaign, and allow them to negotiate a maze of quid pro quos with others AFTER election, rather than support a particular party with a previously published agenda that then becomes the policy of the elected government? You might as well mandate bitter party infighting, a tendency exacerbated by your primary election system, which is a burden and a circus that might be calculated to make it impossible for the party to work within itself, let alone with others. How, in the name of all that's wonderful, do you tolerate an electoral college and an all-or-none delegate count for each State? That's stark, staring madness, guaranteed to deliver results that deny democracy itself.

What the Commander-in-chief of the US armed forces can do is appalling, right there on its own. No single person should be entrusted with such power. Even Obama has, in effect, endorsed the doctrine that the US President can have anyone in the world killed on his say-so. But what Trump might do with those powers goes far beyond appalling, into realms that have no name. Trump's finger on the Button is enough to give anyone nightmares. I think of the possibility, and my flesh creeps.

The rest of the world knows that there is nothing to be done about America that Americans are not willing to do themselves. All we can do is watch and hope. But, oh brother, sometimes it gets fraught, and now is one of those times.

eric · 19 October 2016

Dave Luckett said: When he actually dissed a decorated veteran who had died in combat, mort pour la patrie I thought, well that's that. He's gone. A conservative voter base will never tolerate that. I was wrong.
I think this is in part explained by the 'vote against' phenomena. Conservatives didn't necessarily approve of the flubs you mention, however they really, really don't want Clinton in the WH, so they're willing to tolerate them.
What I don't understand is how "liberal" came to be a dirty word in the US.
Well, the country is actually fairly evenly split. And if you poll people on individual issues, you'd be surprised to find out that the majority agree with many liberal social policies. Gay rights, some minimal gun control laws, legal abortion - in poll after poll, the majority of Americans support these things. In some, it's not even close; gay rights is already above 60% approval and denying gun ownership to people on the no fly list has something insane like 90% support. Its just that many of the people who agree with individual liberal policies don't like the Democratic party, and think the elected GOPers will be better at lowering taxes, shrinking government expenditures, etc.
Why do you hate public investment in the public interest so furiously? What on earth has given rise to a class - a large and important class - that votes and militates directly in opposition to its own interest? It defies reason.
Good questions, both. I don't know. I think one of the more common guesses is that poor republicans see themselves as becoming wealthy in the future, thus they see lower taxes on the wealthy etc as in their (future) interests. But honestly, that's just a guess. Could be, they just don't like rules and being told how to spend their money, even when a collective decision on how to spend money benefits them.
How, in the name of all that's wonderful, do you tolerate an electoral college and an all-or-none delegate count for each State? That's stark, staring madness, guaranteed to deliver results that deny democracy itself.
Ah, but it's a self-imposed madness. :) The states decide how to apportion their votes. The constitution says nothing about it and they don't have to do majority-gets-all. The problem is, it's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma; when one state uses the current system, national politicians have more incentive to pay attention to them because that pot of votes is huge. So the incentives are to 'defect' and do a winner take all method.

harold · 19 October 2016

Wow, our perceptions of her and the Dems are totally different.
The media paints the Democrats as "wildly liberal", and compared to far right Republicans they are. However, by world standards, they're a coalition of mainstream progressives and moderate certer-right conservatives. I understand that saying that Hillary Clinton is somewhat conservative on the issues is like saying that the naked emperor is naked. But that's because the word "conservative" has been hijacked to mean "whatever Republicans say it means". Hillary Clinton is a moderate conservative running against a howling right wing authoritarian populist loon. The Republicans implicitly acknowledge that, by the way - have you heard them attacking her as "liberal", let alone "Marxist"? All the attacks are on her emails (relevant, contrary to what some claim, but they could be a thousand times worse and I'd still vote for her to defeat Trump), or cheap sexist personal stuff (which I can't stand even though I don't like Clinton much). Tuition was highly affordable when Clinton was college age, but she opposes affordable tuition so much that she grudgingly agreed to a means testing imitation. Even though that issue is popular with a super-maority and would have been a huge diplomatic gesture to Sanders voters. Her exact words were "I don't want to give Donald Trump's children free tuition". Ironically, they might qualify for her means tested program, because Trump declares a taxable income of zero. Two hard working clinical lab technologists, one making $60K and the other $61K - their kids won't qualify. There's no such thing as free college anyway. Students sacrifice considerable opportunity cost, and society pays for faculty, administration, and facilities. Nobody ever said it should or could be "free". It's a question of how we pay for it. Right now we have multimillionaire college administrators and students graduating deeply in debt. Clinton tacitly approves of that system, but for political reasons grudgingly agreed to superficial, means tested fix, which will be better than nothing but also quite unfair. Kaine opposes even a public option for the Affordable Care Act. He doen't want to give anybody's kids free health care. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/obama-administration-end-use-private-prisons/ Politico actually admits that some Democrats are "moderates" not "liberals" and that's fair - they're moderate conservatives. Obama's gesture is great, but federal prisons hold a tiny percentage of total inmates, and only 12% of federal prisons were for profit to begin with. Of course I want the business of deterrence and rehabilitation entirely out of for profit, at the state level as well. http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/obama-administration-end-use-private-prisons/ My point about social security was a somewhat irrelevant guess that Hillary would secretly wish to privatize it but grudgingly holds to the party line. I may be wrong, that's just my attempt at mind reading.
Then the GOP came back strong in the 2010 midterm, baffling those same liberals.
Please don't throw around false accusations against "the liberals". Most of us weren't baffled. In 2008, the Democrats could have done anything they wanted and won the White House. Could have run Sanders. Could have run the most conservative Oklahoma blue dog they could find. Could have run a Hispanic candidate. They found themselves able to make one of the most important moves in American history. They ran a black man for president and won. A backlash followed, and the coded language used was "debt". If you believe the Tea Party movement was about debt, I offer the following questions - 1) What do pictures of the President of the United states depicted as a "witch doctor" and similar images have to do with debt? 2) Why didn't the protests break out during the Bush administration, when the change from surplus to deficit took place? 3) Why didn't Tea Party members demand increased government revenue, if their issue was "debt"? When I said the Republican party was dead, I didn't entirely mean that in its current form it's losing its ability to win at the national level. It is, and the Tea Party backlash is more of a "cornered raccoon going really nuts at the end" thing than a "citizens standing up for robber baron economics" thing. But what I really meant is that in its current form it is dead as far as accepting scientific reality is concerned. I have great respect for your intelligent and insightful comments here, and if you want to make the Republican party more sensible on science, more power to you, but you've got your work cut out.

harold · 19 October 2016

GOPers will be better at lowering taxes, shrinking government expenditures, etc.
The Republican party is a coalition of the small percentage of people who actually care about this, and the large percentage of people who are still in a backlash against civil rights, women's equality, gay rights, etc. People who feel that not being a woman, openly gay, or brown or black, is an important advantage for them, and are terrified by the thought of losing that "advantage". Most of the Republicans I know are of the former sort, but that's because I'm an educated professional. For the real proportions, see "Jeb Bush versus Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primary". Higher wages, wealthy paying a reasonable amount of taxes (they wouldn't notice), universal health care coverage, and affordable higher education - all as popular as gay marriage. "Lowering taxes" - Which taxes? How will the revenue be replaced? If it won't be replaced, exactly which expenditures will be cut and what will be the effects of cutting those expenditures, and/or how will debt be raised and what will be the effect of that? "Shrinking government expenditures" - What is your target for government expenditures and what is your coherent rationale for that target? Which expenditures will you shrink, by how much, on what time schedule? What will be the effects of that, negative as well as positive? Say, isn't this "shrinking/smaller federal government" thing just a really obvious pander to civil rights backlash anyway? Coded Goldwater stuff? Alabama used to vote for as many federal expenditures as possible, for obvious reasons, but then the federal government enforced the end of segregation, and now they want "smaller, less powerful federal government"? These are meaningless propaganda slogans. They're primary use is to sugar coat the motivations of the Trump wing. They are accepted as truisms by a small, affluent subset of the population (who see visions of "lower taxes" sugar plums swirling around their head and become so enticed that they can't think further), but that proportion is at Green Party supporter levels.

Henry Skinner · 19 October 2016

Dave Luckett said: I read discussions of US politics like this one with a horrified fascination. And I worry. I can't believe that a substantial fraction of the US population - approaching half - is actually insane, but I hear Trump speak, and I see evidence for his continued popular support, and I wonder, and shudder.
/me nods.
Sure there are parts of Mexico City or the barrios of South America, or the slums of Bangkok, that rival South Chicago or the south Bronx, or Detroit - but aren't you supposed to be the leaders of the western world? I can't put a name to anything in the UK, or Australia, or Europe generally, that's remotely in the same league. I saw the south side of Chicago - by pure accident and because I didn't know - and it remains graven in my consciousness as something I will give anything I possess rather than see in my own country.
Rational behaviour is not a requirement for politicians, nor for voters, wherever they live. When George W. Bush was president I joked that the USA is a third world country, one with nukes. Despite the joke's inaccuracy, many of the social problems in the USA I associate with poor nations rather than a rich western one. I don't think president Obama improved things much. It seems to me this Trump bloke would love to make my joke accurate. I shudder at the thought that Trump might get control of those nukes.
All we can do is watch and hope. But, oh brother, sometimes it gets fraught, and now is one of those times.
The US presidential elections are interesting entertainment, but since it's not my country I don't care deeply who wins, it's always a politician. This time I do care. I don't fancy a madman running my country's senior military ally.

harold · 19 October 2016

Dave Luckett -

Every rich country had radical changes in the 1960's and 1970's - widespread availability of convenient contraception leading to far more equality for women, colonial independence movements, realization of the environmental pollution and conservation issues raised by the industry of the time.

But here in the US, due to our history of slavery and segregation, and our role as the primary cold war antagonist of the Soviet Union, there was more, much more.

The first civil rights backlash election was the clumsy, heavy-handed Goldwater campaign of 1964. In a booming economy, Americans were in a generous mood, and Goldwater's excessively blatant pandering to racism led to a humiliating defeat.

But then came the assassinations of Robert Kennedy and Dr. Martin Luther King and the subsequent unrest, and the escalation of the Vietnam war. Nixon was able to cobble together a "liberal New Deal economics but socially anti-hippie" coalition. Racists, sexists, and homophobes don't like hippies either so it worked (although maybe those homophobes might have had a few qualms about the Nixon inner circle). However, the old "anti-New Deal, austerity for the gruel eaters, filet mignon for us" wing simmered in the background, and they saw that opportunity might arise.

Then came burning industrial rivers, the oil crisis, rising drug-fueled crime, the Iranian hostage crisis, and probably more I'm forgetting.

In that time of panic, Ronald Reagan was able to amp up Nixon's anti-hippie stuff and make it a shade more blatantly racist, and use the "minorities on welfare" scheme to sneak back in the old robber baron austerity economics, now repackaged as "Reaganomics", although they might as well have called it "Coolidgeomics".

That schema worked until 1992, when Bill Clinton, with his crafty Arkansas country boy common sense, saw that if he ran as a moderate right winger, he could force them ridiculously far to the right, since they would never concede to running a "liberal Republican against a conservative Democrat", and beat them for being so far right - at least at the presidential level.

In 2000, as is now largely forgotten, they finally decided to run a "moderate". Everyone conveniently forgets that Dubya originally ran on a fake moderate, "two parties are about the same", "I'm a uniter not a divider", "I love Hispanics", "I'm a jovial guy to have a beer with" platform. He still lost the popular vote to Al Gore, but "won" the election.

Then came the World Trade Center terrorist crime against humanity, and the Dubya administration was able to use that to openly go far right wing.

But by 2008 Americans had had enough, so much so that they wisely elected a historically competent and successful president, who also happens to be black.

But he is black, so that gave the staggering beast a shot of adrenaline to keep it staggering on indefinitely.

Now they've nominated Trump, who can't even beat Hillary Clinton, but who embodies the passionate last desperate stand of the civil rights backlash.

We'll see where it goes from here.

eric · 19 October 2016

harold said: These are meaningless propaganda slogans. They're primary use is to sugar coat the motivations of the Trump wing.
Perhaps at the national political level. But I think the rank and file are sincere about wanting them. The slogans work because they resonate.
if you want to make the Republican party more sensible on science, more power to you, but you’ve got your work cut out.
I would think everyone would want that. It is better to have both parties using sound data to arrive at policy decisions rather than one.

harold · 19 October 2016

I would think everyone would want that. It is better to have both parties using sound data to arrive at policy decisions rather than one.
I very strongly agree. I just think it's a harder job to try to change a rigidly ideological party from the inside, than to simply vote against it. I wish all pro-science Republicans strong success, of course.

harold · 19 October 2016

But I think the rank and file are sincere about wanting them.
A good test for whether someone really wants something, or is claiming to want it to disguise a hidden agenda, is that if they really want it, they'll be able to articulate specifically what they want. If they're claiming to want "A" but it's really a coded way of expressing less socially acceptable desire "B", they'll keep their demands for "A" impossibly vague. For an example from the "left", quarterback Colin Kaeperinick was in the NFL when Trayvon Martin was shot, was in the NFL when Michael Brown was shot, etc, but was fine with everything until he was benched. Then he suddenly began, and by no means do I dispute his right, protesting "racism". However, many conjecture that his true motivation is to make it awkward for the San Francisco Forty-Niners to bench or cut him, by creating a situation in which, if he is benched or cut for poor performance, he can falsely claim that he is being "persecuted for his political beliefs". A good test would be asking him what specific action anyone could ever take to end the conditions he protests. Successful protests of the past, like the civil rights movement or protests against the Vietnam War, sought measurable, identifiable outcomes. Donald Trump claiming that the election is "rigged" is similar. What could convince him that it isn't "rigged"? If Hillary Clinton wins, obviously, there is no rational measurement or analysis that could. He's simply setting the stage to falsely claim that any outcome in which he is not elected is invalid. So if someone really wants to "shrink government" or "lower taxes" and it's not just repetition of "nicer sounding" slogans to disguise a different agenda, they should be able to answer my questions. “Lowering taxes” - Which taxes? How will the revenue be replaced? If it won’t be replaced, exactly which expenditures will be cut and what will be the effects of cutting those expenditures, and/or how will debt be raised and what will be the effect of that? “Shrinking government expenditures” - What is your target for government expenditures and what is your coherent rationale for that target? Which expenditures will you shrink, by how much, on what time schedule? What will be the effects of that, negative as well as positive? Say, isn’t this “shrinking/smaller federal government” thing just a really obvious pander to civil rights backlash anyway? Coded Goldwater stuff? Alabama used to vote for as many federal expenditures as possible, for obvious reasons, but then the federal government enforced the end of segregation, and now they want “smaller, less powerful federal government”?

RJ · 19 October 2016

Well harold, we don't have an interlocutor to answer your questions. But the preferences expressed by the Republicans are indeed incoherent; there is no reasonable answer to your questions. A conservative intellectual who cares about America must not vote for the party until large changes are made.

Forget liberal; when people are polled and asked if they want heavily socialistic programs - without mentioning socialism or liberalism - they often go for them in big numbers. Yes, the same people who say they are against HRC because 'taxes', if you ask them the right way, are in favour of expanded Social Security, free tuition, free healthcare, even democratic control over economic investment. "And we could have those things were it not for those treacherous liberals and high taxes!!"

My conclusion is simple - 'we're fucked'.

eric · 19 October 2016

harold said: A good test for whether someone really wants something, or is claiming to want it to disguise a hidden agenda, is that if they really want it, they'll be able to articulate specifically what they want.
Harold, I think you're mixing up criteria on which we judge candidates for office and criteria on which we judge regular people. Your definition might reasonably apply to political leaders. I.e., if Trump or Clinton can't articulate their plan for balancing the budget, then its reasonable to suspect that they don't really care about balancing it. But I don't think you can really apply that logic to the rest of us because we aren't applying for the job of budget-balancer, tax-lowerer, government-shrinker, or what have you. I have no problem believing that the average American conservative really does want lower income taxes, even if they are unable to 'articulate specifically' what would be an acceptable set of base rate + exemptions. One does not have to be a CPA or economic analyst to really want a change in the tax structure. :)
So if someone really wants to "shrink government" or "lower taxes" and it's not just repetition of "nicer sounding" slogans to disguise a different agenda, they should be able to answer my questions.
I disagree. Again, we need to distinguish whether the 'someone' you're talking about is a presidential candidate or a person on the street. For a candidate, yes. Person on the street, no. Because you do not have to be educated about a subject to have desires about it, and people often have strategic or long-term goals without any specific plan or understanding about how to achieve it. I really would like to lose weight. I have no idea what combination of diet and exercise will be successful in getting me there. I'm still trying to figure that out. So, are you telling me I 'don't really' want to lose weight because I can't answer your questions to a specific detailed level?

harold · 19 October 2016

So, are you telling me I ‘don’t really’ want to lose weight because I can’t answer your questions to a specific detailed level?
Yep. Of course. Obviously. The person who has some kind of a plan and makes some kind of an effort, even if not the most rational approach, wants to lose weight. The person who says they "want" to lose weight but can't say how much and gets evasive when you ask about it, or defensive when you mention things that work for others, on that subject only irrevocably full of shit. Absolutely. 100%. I guarantee that 95% of adult Americans are keenly aware of what the two parties actually endorse and actually do. And when they pull that lever, they know what they're pulling for. And if they say "Oh, Trump is just terrible, but I had to vote for him because I 'support smaller government' in some vague way", they're lying about why they voted for Trump. One hundred percent.

harold · 19 October 2016

harold said:
So, are you telling me I ‘don’t really’ want to lose weight because I can’t answer your questions to a specific detailed level?
Yep. Of course. Obviously. The person who has some kind of a plan and makes some kind of an effort, even if not the most rational approach, wants to lose weight. The person who says they "want" to lose weight but can't say how much and gets evasive when you ask about it, or defensive when you mention things that work for others, on that subject only irrevocably full of shit. Absolutely. 100%. I guarantee that 95% of adult Americans are keenly aware of what the two parties actually endorse and actually do. And when they pull that lever, they know what they're pulling for. And if they say "Oh, Trump is just terrible, but I had to vote for him because I 'support smaller government' in some vague way", they're lying about why they voted for Trump. One hundred percent.
I don't mean this to be as insulting as it accidentally sounds, and I shouldn't have said "lying". It's not conscious. A very, very good friend of mine, NOT voting for Trump and embarrassed about voting twice for Dubya, uses this. She opposes the Republican agenda on any issue you can come up with. But in the past she's resorted to stereotypes about "personal responsibility", "smaller government", whatever, to rationalize a habit of voting for the party that appeals on a more emotional level. Not overt racism by any means, nor greed. Just a general sense that "white middle class people" "should" vote for that party. If you can't articulate what you want, you don't really want it, you just want people to hear you say you want it. I don't mean to sound like a harsh jerk here. There's nothing terribly wrong with it and I probably do it too, in other areas.

harold · 19 October 2016

“white middle class people”

Whoops, I should have said more accurately "middle class people".

Bottom line, I don't mean to be insulting or anything, but saying you want "smaller government" without having any idea of smaller than what or how to achieve it is a purely empty slogan.

It's not ethically wrong or anything. It's just not meaningful.

And I'm going to try to stop talking about this now.

harold · 19 October 2016

Eric -

Okay, actually, one more rhetorical question.

I have enormous respect for your contributions here and we agree on the basic issue in this thread - parties should respect science.

I will close with this set of rhetorical questions, but just for completeness, and it's not a big deal -

If you say you want "smaller government", buy you can't say how small or how to get there -

How will you know when the government is small enough?

How do you know it isn't small enough now?

How can your representatives figure out which legislation they should represent you with, if you don't tell them anything specific about how small you want it and how to get there?

Republicans pointed don't make the government smaller; is it possible that failure to communicate what you want in a clear way is giving them carte blanche to say "we'll make the government smaller for you" and then do anything they want, since you have no way of evaluating their progress - all you can ask is that they endorse a vague claim to "want to make the government smaller"?

How do you know there aren't things that would "make the government smaller" but that you would oppose, that you could invoke by blindly asking for "smaller government"?

You didn't answer my other questions, so I don't expect answers here, and that's fine. These questions are somewhat rhetorical.

DS · 19 October 2016

Having now read the article, it appears that the climate scientist was served a subpoena to appear before another committee chaired by another person. But that's also disturbing, since that means that the 80 subpoenas served were all supposedly to fetal tissue researchers. It also means that this is not the only committee that has taken it upon itself to subpoena scientists. How much more of this kind of thing is going on? Once again, are these really the biggest budget items that they should be investigating, or just the most political hot button topics to get press for?

Palaeonictis · 19 October 2016

DS said: "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be." Thomas Jefferson If the politicians refuse to listen to the scientists, if they ignore them or persecute them, if they pretend that a scientific consensus does not exist, then that society is doomed. That is exactly what is happening in the United States. We are seriously considering a candidate for president who is on record as saying that climate change is a hoax. If that person is elected, you can expect more inquisitions and witch hunts. Climate change is an inconvenient truth, but truth none the less.
To add injury to insult, some of the predicted effects of climate change include an unprecedented rise in violence over the next century due to the dwindling of resources due to long term weather changes such as major drought, not to mention the major humanitarian crisis that is expected to result from the flooding of huge amounts of land, adding to competition over resources and land, and thus more violence. Other effects include a substantial increase in the intensity of storms, more intense heat waves, pest species invading newly opened lands, dooming ecosystems, ocean acidification, etc etc etc. To say climate climate change is a hoax is one thing, but electing a candidate who believes said thing is surely to doom human civilization tenth fold.

DS · 19 October 2016

So the Chairman of the Science Committee is a climate denier who is charged with overseeing those who research climate change. And he has chosen to accuse them of lying and hiding data, all without any evidence of wrong doing whatsoever. Does this sound familiar? Now he chooses to ignore their conclusions and harass them instead. Just more sour grapes from the party of sour grapes. They can't do anything about the science, so they attack the scientists instead.

DS · 19 October 2016

Oh and did I mention that he's in the pocket of big oil?

W. H. Heydt · 19 October 2016

eric said:
Dave Luckett said: How, in the name of all that's wonderful, do you tolerate an electoral college and an all-or-none delegate count for each State? That's stark, staring madness, guaranteed to deliver results that deny democracy itself.
Ah, but it's a self-imposed madness. :) The states decide how to apportion their votes. The constitution says nothing about it and they don't have to do majority-gets-all. The problem is, it's a bit of a prisoner's dilemma; when one state uses the current system, national politicians have more incentive to pay attention to them because that pot of votes is huge. So the incentives are to 'defect' and do a winner take all method.
It's a self imposed madness that was established in the 18th century for several reasons, and which is now entrenched as something we're used to. Part of it was the original authors being leery of mob rule (something current events suggest they were correct about) coupled with slow communications (speeds being limited to horses and ships). It was--as is Congress itself--a compromise to prevent either numbers of small states or the populations of large states from dominating each other. The electoral college actually gives small states a slight advantage, as no matter how small, no state will ever have less than 3 electoral votes. the state by state "winner take all" however is NOT written into the Constitution. Each state gets to decide how to apportion it's electoral votes. There are two states--Nebraska and Maine--that are NOT "winner take all". In the primary elections and caucuses (which and how varies by state), the Democratic party has insisted that all delegates be granted proportionally (that's how Sanders came as close to being nominated as he did). The Republicans allow the states to decide, and some are proportional and some are "winner take all". There are a few with hybrid systems. Much of this is driven by a myth that ended with the US Civil War. The myth is that each state is--somehow, and to some degree--a sovereign entity, that the Union is a free creation of the states banding together. When that was actually true, under the Articles of Confederation, it turned out not to work and the that system was replaced by ratifying the Constitution. (People tend to forget that the US is--technically, at least--several years older than the Constitution and that the constitutional system is NOT the original US governmental system.) In part, one might turn this whole sub-topic around and ask why the UK still has a House of Lords in the 21st century. Where is the sense in that?

eric · 19 October 2016

harold said: The person who says they "want" to lose weight but can't say how much
20 lb.
and gets evasive when you ask about it, or defensive when you mention things that work for others, on that subject only irrevocably full of shit.
Evasive? I'm the one who brought it up! So I've passed your two new criteria. However, those weren't what you originally said. You originally said that I needed to have a specific, detailed plan for doing it. I don't. According to your previous claim, that means I don't really want to. Do you stand by that claim? Because its baloney. Again, someone can want some end goal without having a specific, detailed plan for achieving it.
And if they say "Oh, Trump is just terrible, but I had to vote for him because I 'support smaller government' in some vague way", they're lying about why they voted for Trump. One hundred percent.
I think you vastly underestimate the ability of humans to start with the same facts but reach different policy conclusions.

eric · 19 October 2016

harold said: If you say you want "smaller government", buy you can't say how small or how to get there - How will you know when the government is small enough? How do you know it isn't small enough now? How can your representatives figure out which legislation they should represent you with, if you don't tell them anything specific about how small you want it and how to get there?
None of those questions need be answered in order for our hypothetical smaller government voter to evaluate a candidate. They simply ask the candidates: do you plan on increasing the government budget, or decreasing it? Do you plan on increasing the civil service work force, or decreasing it? "Decreasing" is their proxy measure for "smaller." And no, they don't have to have some objective measure of size in mind; one can have a rate and direction of change as a goal. Using my analogy, it is perfectly possible for me to have a goal of "lose, not gain, weight this week." Our hypothetical small government voter can want the government to lose, not gain, weight this term. That could be their policy goal. In fact, every time you hear some economist or political person propose we reduce the deficit by X, they are proposing a rate goal rather than an objective $ goal for the debt.
Republicans pointed don't make the government smaller; is it possible that failure to communicate what you want in a clear way is giving them carte blanche to say "we'll make the government smaller for you" and then do anything they want, since you have no way of evaluating their progress - all you can ask is that they endorse a vague claim to "want to make the government smaller"?
Agreed, actual politicians often treat such statements as toilet paper. That, however, has nothing to do with the question of whether a voter can actually want smaller government even if they can't articulate a specific plan for achieving it. You're saying if the voter can't articulate a specific plan for achieving smaller government, they must not actually want smaller government. I disagree with that claim. Your logic would also imply that only engineers could want to go to Mars and only biologists could want a cure for cancer. This is obviously untrue. Sincere desire for X does not require knowing how to achieve X.
You didn't answer my other questions, so I don't expect answers here, and that's fine. These questions are somewhat rhetorical.
Harold, you fired off your last four posts in the span of 22 minutes. Perhaps, just maybe, you might want to consider the possibility that there is an innocent explanation for my non-responsiveness.

eric · 19 October 2016

DS said: It also means that this is not the only committee that has taken it upon itself to subpoena scientists. How much more of this kind of thing is going on? Once again, are these really the biggest budget items that they should be investigating, or just the most political hot button topics to get press for?
This sub-committee was formed by the GOP in response to the PP 'gotcha' videos about selling fetal tissue that surfaced about a year ago. So while I don't have an answer to your bigger question, I'd put this particular one in the "hot button topic" category rather than the "big budget concern" category.

eric · 19 October 2016

W. H. Heydt said:
Dave Luckett said: How, in the name of all that's wonderful, do you tolerate an electoral college and an all-or-none delegate count for each State? That's stark, staring madness, guaranteed to deliver results that deny democracy itself.
the state by state "winner take all" however is NOT written into the Constitution. Each state gets to decide how to apportion it's electoral votes. There are two states--Nebraska and Maine--that are NOT "winner take all".
I believe that's what Dave was asking about in his second question, and the question I was answering. I didn't answer his "why electoral college" question, but I agree with your answer. In addition to Nebraska and Maine just opting not to go winner take all, there is also the NPVIC effort. If it succeeds, it would also eliminate the concept of swing states and big states being more important than small states. The electoral college would still be there, but it would be largely symbolic.

PaulBC · 19 October 2016

eric said: None of those questions need be answered in order for our hypothetical smaller government voter to evaluate a candidate. They simply ask the candidates: do you plan on increasing the government budget, or decreasing it? Do you plan on increasing the civil service work force, or decreasing it? "Decreasing" is their proxy measure for "smaller."
I think it's safe to say that most people would like to keep more of their income and spend less time filling out bureaucratic forms or submitting to inspections (whether for home improvement or running a small business). It's also safe to say that people want clean drinking water. They want to be covered for temporary and long term disability. They want bridges that don't collapse under them, etc. Most people (and I don't think this is insulting or condescending, because people have other things to do) don't always follow the consequences of one thing to the next. The most effective strategy of the GOP has been not only to encourage the disconnect between public costs and public benefits but to convince people that their taxes are going to "wasteful bureaucracy" or (more perniciously) to "those people." It has worked out well over the years, and is distinct from those like Grover Norquist who very actively want to shrink the public sector to carry out explicit goals of weakening government and favoring wealthy private interests. So I think it is possible that many ordinary voters "want smaller government and lower taxes" but don't want it the same way Grover Norquist does. They are just talking about two very distinct things and this works to great advantage for the GOP. Even Norquist, an awful amoral person, has to be distinguished from the Tea Party, which is mostly a white identity movement. It is not about any principles at all, just the desperate attempt of a large but shrinking group to hold onto their remaining privileges. They will be around long enough in cornered animal mode to do a lot of damage, but they aren't winning new converts. History has simply passed them by. The question is really how things can realign. Some time in the late 90s I rather stupidly believed that the Republican party was about to co-opt center-right DLC Democrats, turning the Democratic party into an ineffectual leftwing movement and basically insuring Republican hegemony for decades. Obviously, nothing like that happened, and I think one part of it is that I underestimated the personal animosity of Republicans of any stripe towards anyone who is ostensibly a Democrat (and particular hatred of the Clintons). At this point, the Democratic party seems to be the home of most people who just want to continue a status quo government, yet who differ wildly on policy (but--as I would paraphrase harold--at least aren't overt racists or religious bigots). I am not optimistic enough to believe that there is any big realignment coming that will diminish Republican influence. In fact, gerrymandering is going to pay great political dividends though 2020 and probably longer. The "moderate Republican" is unlikely to be a huge factor either. Some Republicans may be happy to go along with climate change regulations (or at least carbon trading). They still won't want to associate with the Democratic "brand" and they will only be electable in certain parts of the US.

harold · 19 October 2016

And no, they don’t have to have some objective measure of size in mind; one can have a rate and direction of change as a goal. Using my analogy, it is perfectly possible for me to have a goal of “lose, not gain, weight this week.” Our hypothetical small government voter can want the government to lose, not gain, weight this term. That could be their policy goal. In fact, every time you hear some economist or political person propose we reduce the deficit by X, they are proposing a rate goal rather than an objective $ goal for the debt.
I have no strong motivation to keep disagreeing with Eric, since first of all, we both agree that it would be better if both parties respected science, and second of all he and I agree strongly on matters related to the underlying subject matter of this blog. Nevertheless, his own analogy compels me to point out the problems in his arguments here. It is not at all rational to have "rate and direction of change" as a goal in either case. Let's talk about weight loss. People who only care about the direction and rate of weight loss have a medical problem. It's called "anorexia nervosa" and it's deadly. Not caring about the absolute value of their weight, but only about the direction and rate of change, they literally lose too much weight and starve themselves to death. Furthermore, though, let's talk about people who actually are fat. They don't have anorexia and they'd like to stop losing fat when they get down to the weight where they like the way they look, or where their endocrinologist tells them they're likely to have a beneficial impact on their type 2 diabetes and reduce their cardiovascular disease risk. Even then, just saying "I want to lose weight and I don't need to worry about the details" is point blank wrong. There are many heavily marketed methods that cause rapid dehydration, or cause loss of muscle mass as well as fat leading to a "yo-yoing" cycle, or just aren't sustainable. It is 100% meaningless, or arguably, and irrational obsession, to say that you want "smaller government", if you don't have some idea how small it should be, and why, and how to achieve that. It's a gimmick. And although I doubt that the likes of Paul Ryan even get its coded origins, it's a gimmick with its roots in Goldwater civil rights backlash.

DS · 19 October 2016

eric said:
DS said: It also means that this is not the only committee that has taken it upon itself to subpoena scientists. How much more of this kind of thing is going on? Once again, are these really the biggest budget items that they should be investigating, or just the most political hot button topics to get press for?
This sub-committee was formed by the GOP in response to the PP 'gotcha' videos about selling fetal tissue that surfaced about a year ago. So while I don't have an answer to your bigger question, I'd put this particular one in the "hot button topic" category rather than the "big budget concern" category.
That is correct. And that video was investigated and found to be a fabrication. It revealed absolutely no wrong doing on the part of PP. So why would you need a congressional hearing? Ditto Climate change. The alleged wrong doing was a total fabrication. Why keep beating a dead horse? It's as if facts and the truth mean nothing to these people. And these are the leaders in congress! These are the people in charge of over sight! Time for a little chlorine in the gene pool.

eric · 19 October 2016

PaulBC said: I am not optimistic enough to believe that there is any big realignment coming that will diminish Republican influence.
I don't think anyone really predicted the nativism that gave Trump the GOP candidacy. It certainly seems to indicate that they are not going to be able to grow more inclusive the way they've claimed they want to for the past 4-8 years, at least not with Hispanics and religious minorities. On the other hand, we are living through one big social policy realignment right now: in the span of about 2008-2028, both parties are going to have shifted from "no gay marriage, maybe at best civil partnerships" to "of course gay marriage, it's not even an issue worth talking about." At least, that's my prediction.
In fact, gerrymandering is going to pay great political dividends though 2020 and probably longer.
You are probably right, though as I said upstream there is in principle no barrier to other GOP factions using the Tea Party strategy. Pick a safe district, beat the incumbent in the primary by appealing solely to republicans, then sail through the general while you enjoy the irony of the gerrymandering that was intended to stop challengers ensuring your victory instead.

eric · 19 October 2016

harold said: Nevertheless, his own analogy compels me to point out the problems in his arguments here. It is not at all rational to have "rate and direction of change" as a goal in either case.
Harold, you've pointed out that there can be bad rate/direction goals if left unchecked. Sure, that's true. That doesn't prevent people from having reasonable ones and just updating them as needed. Do you really think that it is an irrational obsession for someone to have a goal like "smaller deficit" or "lose weight this week" or "smaller government"? Are you really claiming a statement like that means the person doesn't really want what they say they want? Are you really claiming that nobody can want a cure for cancer unless they have a specific plan for how to create one?

PaulBC · 19 October 2016

harold said: It is 100% meaningless, or arguably, and irrational obsession, to say that you want "smaller government", if you don't have some idea how small it should be, and why, and how to achieve that. It's a gimmick. And although I doubt that the likes of Paul Ryan even get its coded origins, it's a gimmick with its roots in Goldwater civil rights backlash.
I think your definition of "want" is too specific to be useful, and it's also non-standard. There are a lot of things I want that I don't have much of a plan for, and which I am pretty sure I will never have. I "want" to write a novel. I don't even fool myself that I could publish it. Actually I had a fairly specific idea last year that would have drawn on some unique experience (a family medical emergency). I just don't have time. If I wanted it enough I would make a plan and set out time for it. It might not be very good, but I am pretty sure it would fit most definitions of an unpublished novel. So I conclude that I don't want it enough to carry it out, making what I "want" fairly uninteresting, but not meaningless. Or, less abstractly, I really want a functioning Curta mechanical calculator. I am sure I would enjoy having one and learning how to use it. It is one of the few "things" I have ever really coveted. I could probably track one down and afford to buy it, though I don't think my wife would approve of the expenditure. I have also wondered if I'm the right owner. Would it break? Would I ever go the effort and expense to repair it? Is that a real want? It seems so to me. As I said above, I think most voters have a sense that they want to keep more of their money and spend less time on permits and inspections. I don't see how you can dismiss this as "100% meaningless". This is not want their manipulators want of course. They really want a weakened government and an empowered private sector that can cut corners as it sees fits. But "smaller government" is still a slogan that appeals directly to the voter, because it suggests specific benefits. It might even appeal to me if I didn't think things through. Liberals like me don't actually want "bigger government" but we want the public good that comes from judicious regulation and public spending. That makes "bigger government" and "higher taxes" more palatable, but not an end in itself. E.g. I live in a California school district that levies additional property taxes through intiatives that nearly always pass, not because the voters like keeping less of their money, but because we are voting directly to maintain the quality of the school district. I think what makes something a real want is not the amount of thought people have put into it, but how offering it will affect their decision-making, whether they understand it completely or not. "Smaller government" sounds good to many Americans. Some other slogan does not. Suppose your slogan was "encouraging our traditional crafts". Somebody might like that, but probably most people would feel very neutral (till you said you need to levy a new tax for it and then they'd be negative). It is simply not true that people don't want the things they think they are being promised, though there is definitely a bait-and-switch going on between what Grover Norquist means and what "Joe the Plumber" thinks he means. To be honest, this seems like a strange sticking point, and I have mostly lost track of what you and eric are arguing about. The GOP is not the Titanic. Trump is also not representative of a rightwing resurgence. There are a number of forces at play, and anyone who could actually predict the next realignment would have a great advantage over the rest of us.

harold · 19 October 2016

As I said above, I think most voters have a sense that they want to keep more of their money and spend less time on permits and inspections.
We'll just have to agree to disagree. I wonder how many people who comment here as proud supporters of science have directly voted for politicians who deny evolution, deny global warming, and support harassing scientists, and will continue to, and claim some desire for a "smaller government", that they can't even define, and thus wouldn't even know if was achieved (but which presumably includes tax-funded harassment of scientists) as the rationale. I wonder how many will in the future. Meanwhile, for the rest of us, if you don't want those policies don't vote for those politicians.

PaulBC · 19 October 2016

harold said:
As I said above, I think most voters have a sense that they want to keep more of their money and spend less time on permits and inspections.
We'll just have to agree to disagree.
Fine, though I agree with most of what you wrote. I think you are showing a blindspot to something that is fairly obvious and meshes with American culture. If people say they want smaller government, who am I to second guess?
I wonder how many people who comment here as proud supporters of science have directly voted for politicians who deny evolution, deny global warming, and support harassing scientists, and will continue to, and claim some desire for a "smaller government", that they can't even define, and thus wouldn't even know if was achieved (but which presumably includes tax-funded harassment of scientists) as the rationale.
Fewer than you might think, but it probably varies by region. I live in the SF Bay Area and would really have to go out of my way to vote for a climate science denier. They would also lose even if I voted for them. If I lived near Dallas or Atlanta... well, I would vote Democratic because I have done so all my life, but other people might vote for a Republican for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with climate change. And if I haven't been clear enough, I personally do not believe in small government hokum, but I am willing to say that people are wrong in wanting "smaller government" without going the unnecessary extra mile of insisting that they don't really want it after all.

Just Bob · 19 October 2016

DS said: It's as if facts and the truth mean nothing to these people.
What "as if"? There's no "as if".

DanHolme · 21 October 2016

A UK perspective on ‘smaller government’ : Compared to the US I imagine the UK’s government is pretty ‘small’ anyway, but the sort of person who would like it smaller is someone who essentially wants to do stuff that the taxman or the local council says they can’t. For instance, a millionaire who wants to build a garish mansion in the middle of protected land in the ‘greenbelt’ is often fond of ‘smaller government’; an employer who doesn’t want to contribute to workplace pensions might be against ‘big government’; and a person seething that the value of their property has gone down because the council has approved a development they don’t like would want to ‘fight the system’.

These are usually the people who would like a bigger military, stronger ‘Border Force’, and more police on the streets, but I guess these don’t count as ‘government’.

Since 2008 there’s also been a growing trend in UK media to portray all government services – the public sector – as ‘bloated’ and in need of trimming, which the Conservatives kicked off in the 80s and has always been an underlying theme since. The sort of person who hates that kind of ‘big government’, I find, complains that the pensions of public sector workers are ‘excessive and funded by the public purse’ and that public sector workers are ‘inefficient and always on strike’ (whilst neither saving for a pension nor joining a union themselves).

This has been a very concerted attack on unions and on services which has suited the last two governments very well in their agenda to cut costs and promote things like private security firms (to run prisons), private healthcare, private pensions, etc. A cynical man might wonder how many politicians of this stripe leave politics to join the board of a private security firm, health trust, national bank….

eric · 21 October 2016

harold said: I wonder how many people who comment here as proud supporters of science have directly voted for politicians who deny evolution, deny global warming, and support harassing scientists, and will continue to, and claim some desire for a "smaller government", that they can't even define, and thus wouldn't even know if was achieved (but which presumably includes tax-funded harassment of scientists) as the rationale. I wonder how many will in the future.
As I've said before, I'm more on the liberal side. I'm not defending GOP ideas because I support them, I'm defending the notion that people hold GOP ideas honestly and sincerely, and that these comprise actual, legitimate "wants" the same way you want things. Partisans often have a form of blindness, where they can't see how anyone could look around at the world and arrive at any conclusion other than theirs. They conclude from this that anyone reaching some other conclusion must not be rational. FL springs to mind; atheism isn't merely a different conclusion to him, it's insane and irrational. To him, anyone claiming atheism is either irrational or lying for some mercenary, ulterior motive. I see you falling into this same form of blindness in terms of politics: where you can't see how anyone could be really, sincerely want (for example) smaller government. Where you think any claim to want it must either be completely irrational or prompted by some ulterior motive.

eric · 21 October 2016

DanHolme said: A UK perspective on ‘smaller government’ : Compared to the US I imagine the UK’s government is pretty ‘small’ anyway,
It should be! You have 1/5 our population and management structures do not necessarily scale linearly with population. I think one reason the "bloated government" line sounds compelling is because people are generally really bad at extrapolating. The fact that we're also really bad at nonlinearities is like the icing on a mistaken conclusion cake. Think about a family managing their finances. So maybe 1 person out of the 4 needs to work a half hour a week to manage it. Doesn't sound bloated, does it? Now extrapolate out to a finance department for 50 million or 350 million people. For the UK case, that would be 446,000 people working full time. I bet your government finance departments are smaller than that, right? In this case, the nonlinearities help; they improve efficiency, and you need fewer person-hours of financial management per capita than a family does. But people will still complain, because they don't get the math and because 440,000 civil servants sounds pretty bloated for almost any government function.

harold · 22 October 2016

Partisans often have a form of blindness, where they can’t see how anyone could look around at the world and arrive at any conclusion other than theirs. They conclude from this that anyone reaching some other conclusion must not be rational.
I'm not a partisan and don't have that form of blindness. I can perfectly well see how a rational person might propose and defend policies that aren't the same as what I think are best. I've had many civil, enlightened discussions with those who do, and that has helped me to clarify my own positions. I respond here only because it's clear that I'll keep being falsely accused of "partisan blindness' for pointing out the difference between three things - 1) Transparent, actionable policy proposals. 2) Mindless propaganda slogans, which may accurately reflect some sort of political desire in a vague way, but serve mainly to obfuscate and simplify, or to glorify individual leaders. E.g. "I'm with her!" 3) Dog whistle code. Milton Friedman was a sincere defender of smaller government ideas, and although I'm not a huge fan overall had a fair number of rather good ideas. Homer Simpson looks at his tax bill and gets mad and votes Republican, and then gets madder later when he ends up paying more for worse garbage collection because the service is "privatized"' (made up example, not from actual episode, using Homer Simpson as an example of a "generic working class white American male"). Barry Goldwater ran on a backlash against civil rights and initiated the use of "small government" rhetoric as a coded criticism of federal intervention to enforce human rights. There seems to be a tendency in this thread to admit the Milton Friedman and Homer Simpson influences, but deny the Barry Goldwater influence. But the original subject of this thread, science denial as policy and witch hunts directed at scientists, is more in the McCarthy/Goldwater tradition than in the Milton Friedman tradition.

RJ · 23 October 2016

Harold has made no claim, none at all, about whether people might want smaller government in a rational, articulate way. The empirical evidence is that for the vast majority of those that say they want it, it's a mere mantra, a tribal signifier, and/or code for 'I hate the blahs."

- "Hey, I just want smaller government."

- Our public transit is pathetic; you said so yourself. So you want more cuts to it? "No, government needs to get its hands off our buses. I just want smaller government."

- Well, I guess I could agree with you on one aspect. Our military does little to protect Americans and really is all about offence, not defense. It's very expensive; we desperately need to cut military spending. "No, we gotta kill the ragheads. I don't want to betray our defenders. I just want smaller government."

- I agree with you on another aspect; we should stop giving so many wasteful hi-tech gadgets to police departments. "The police protect us; they need that gear. I just want smaller government."

- Well, the private sector has shown little appetite or ability to maintain our nation's infrastructure. You say it's crumbling, and I agree with you. But how do you propose to renew it without public spending? "We can't have new highways because taxes are too high. Smaller government would bring better infrastructure. I just want smaller government."

- Both your grandmothers are able to pay their mortgages with the help of Social Security. You want to cut that? "No, I just want smaller government."

- Do you think cement companies should be able to dump their wastes in rivers? "Of course not; I just want smaller government."

These are not strawmen. They are the sorts of things that people say, much more than any real arguments for smaller government.

There is a particular individual who said something pretty fatuous above, and I think there is a connection with the refusal to admit that a large plurality of American conservatives have deeply incoherent preference-sets. A person who can say or type, with a straight face, that no-one could have predicted the strong nativist turn in the Trump campaign is a person who has not been listening. There has been a lively and well-documented Internet discussion on this matter going back at least to 1993. Books too. The nativist turn did not need to be 'predicted'; it was noted and identified a long time ago.

There is a difference between coherent and reasonable desires, worthy of moral respect (even from those that disagree) and the fleeting inarticulate 'want' of small government typical of American conservativism. The vast majority of American conservatives who express a desire for smaller government have not 'arrived' at a 'conclusion'.

Those practicing compulsive centrist disorder like to present themselves as the reasonable center and act all appalled when leftists say they bear some responsibility for conservative wackiness, maybe more than the Newt Gingrichs of the world. Well, the shoe fits, and I'm not sorry when I claim this. To zeroith order: the centrist 'why can't we all just get along' liberals bear more responsibility for Republican nativism than do Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.

Those arguing with Harold: are you willing to admit that he did not express an inability to see how someone could disagree with him? The accusation of blind partisanship was actually kind of vicious. Are you willing to admit that there is a qualitative difference between a 'wanting' that is articulate and actionable, and a 'wanting' that is at best pure air? If not, I think maybe they are engaged in tribal signalling.

By the way, I am not claiming any special virtue for leftists or liberals as individuals. My general sense is that 90% of liberals and leftists don't have any good reasons for their beliefs. For hardcore Donald Trump supporters, though, it's close to 100%.

eric · 24 October 2016

RJ said: If you can’t articulate what you want, you don’t really want it, you just want people to hear you say you want it.
My father has cancer, and it will probably kill him within a year. I want a cure for cancer. I have no idea how to achieve it. I have no plan to learn biochemistry just so I can articulate more specifically what I want. So, do you and Harold doubt this is a sincere want? Are you going to tell me that I don't really want it, I just want people to hear me say I want it? If your answer to that is "no eric, I recognize that you may have a legitimate want here," then don't you recognize that someone voicing a similarly vague and shallow want for political conservative points might be equally sincere?
Those practicing compulsive centrist disorder like to present themselves as the reasonable center and act all appalled when leftists say they bear some responsibility for conservative wackiness, maybe more than the Newt Gingrichs of the world. Well, the shoe fits, and I'm not sorry when I claim this. To zeroith order: the centrist 'why can't we all just get along' liberals bear more responsibility for Republican nativism than do Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.
I generally lean left (I think this is the third time I've had to say that). What I object to is, basically, people I agree with not being able to comprehend that their political opponents have the same human wants, desires etc. as them. That their political opponents may be just as sincere in wanting to improve the country and just disagree with you about how to improve it and in some cases what "an improved country" looks like. Basically, I see a lot of political attribution biases. Prime example: "the Republicans are against America; they hate America. The Republicans are traitors, not simply wrong". That, to me, fairly screams attribution bias.
Are you willing to admit that there is a qualitative difference between a 'wanting' that is articulate and actionable, and a 'wanting' that is at best pure air? If not, I think maybe they are engaged in tribal signalling.
So, my wanting a cure for cancer is pure air? I don't really want my dad to live, I'm just doing some tribal signaling? I agree with you that many voters may have a shallow understanding of important political issues. Much like my very shallow understanding of oncology. But shallowness is not the same thing as insincerity and it certainly doesn't imply ulterior motives (or, going back to your quote, hatred for the US and treason).

harold · 25 October 2016

eric said:
RJ said: If you can’t articulate what you want, you don’t really want it, you just want people to hear you say you want it.
My father has cancer, and it will probably kill him within a year. I want a cure for cancer. I have no idea how to achieve it. I have no plan to learn biochemistry just so I can articulate more specifically what I want. So, do you and Harold doubt this is a sincere want? Are you going to tell me that I don't really want it, I just want people to hear me say I want it? If your answer to that is "no eric, I recognize that you may have a legitimate want here," then don't you recognize that someone voicing a similarly vague and shallow want for political conservative points might be equally sincere?
Those practicing compulsive centrist disorder like to present themselves as the reasonable center and act all appalled when leftists say they bear some responsibility for conservative wackiness, maybe more than the Newt Gingrichs of the world. Well, the shoe fits, and I'm not sorry when I claim this. To zeroith order: the centrist 'why can't we all just get along' liberals bear more responsibility for Republican nativism than do Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck.
I generally lean left (I think this is the third time I've had to say that). What I object to is, basically, people I agree with not being able to comprehend that their political opponents have the same human wants, desires etc. as them. That their political opponents may be just as sincere in wanting to improve the country and just disagree with you about how to improve it and in some cases what "an improved country" looks like. Basically, I see a lot of political attribution biases. Prime example: "the Republicans are against America; they hate America. The Republicans are traitors, not simply wrong". That, to me, fairly screams attribution bias.
Are you willing to admit that there is a qualitative difference between a 'wanting' that is articulate and actionable, and a 'wanting' that is at best pure air? If not, I think maybe they are engaged in tribal signalling.
So, my wanting a cure for cancer is pure air? I don't really want my dad to live, I'm just doing some tribal signaling? I agree with you that many voters may have a shallow understanding of important political issues. Much like my very shallow understanding of oncology. But shallowness is not the same thing as insincerity and it certainly doesn't imply ulterior motives (or, going back to your quote, hatred for the US and treason).
Best wishes to your father. This is completely non-analogous. "Better treatments for cancer" is not a mindless slogan. You can define what you want as the outcome within a reasonable way. You can intelligently discuss what general policies we can pursue, at what cost, what else we might prioritize basic and clinical cancer research over. For the record I believe that we should consider markedly increasing biomedical research. So you think that Republicans never use the term "small government" as a group-identifying slogan or coded pandering to less popular ideas. Fine. I think they sometimes do (which is not to say that they never use the term sincerely, they sometimes do that as well). My position is reasonable. Yours is borderline reasonable; maybe a little naïve, but at least you err on the side of thinking well of your fellow human. Nobody here is dehumanizing Republicans or using absurd, over the top language. In fact I'm usually being criticized for "not being mean enough" on this site. We're not insulting you; we're not labeling you "partisan" or filled with "attribution bias" just because you don't agree with us. Why don't you stop insulting us? There's no possible chance of convincing you, I get that, and who cares? Who cares if we ascribe the term "smaller government" to propaganda and code at a higher frequency than you do? Why won't you just let it go? For the record, the "Other side are traitors" stuff was initiated by the right wing and especially used during the Bush II era. Ann Coulter was particularly prominent in labeling liberals "objectively pro-Saddam" traitors who need to "learn that they can be physically hurt" etc. That caused some liberals to turn the tables by beginning to use similar language toward conservatives, but only because conservatives have been trying use the unfair and inflammatory "we're patriots and they're traitors" meme for much longer. Do some research if you aren't convinced.

eric · 26 October 2016

harold said: This is completely non-analogous. "Better treatments for cancer" is not a mindless slogan. You can define what you want as the outcome within a reasonable way. You can intelligently discuss what general policies we can pursue, at what cost, what else we might prioritize basic and clinical cancer research over.
No I can't, not in any specific way. I can in a general qualitative way, but that is exactly the way many conservative voters express their desires for policy changes. I'll also point out that my actual plan for helping my dad looks a lot like their plan: I'm going to use my resources to get experts on the job, and let them figure out the details. But that is fairly directly analogous to voting for someone who you then expect to carry out a policy. Our government is essentially hired by the voters to do a job on behalf of those voters. So I disagree with you that the situation is disanalagous. I have a shallow understanding of something I want, and so I delegate fulfilling it to someone better equipped to do so. That doesn't make me insincere - and a conservative doing the exact same thing doesn't imply that they are insincere either.
For the record I believe that we should consider markedly increasing biomedical research.
If you believe this is a sufficient level of detail to say you actually want it, then why isn't "I believe that we should consider markedly decreasing the number of civil servants" sufficient?
So you think that Republicans never use the term "small government" as a group-identifying slogan or coded pandering to less popular ideas. Fine.
No, I don't think I said that. My point is that the run of the mill conservative is no different from the run of the mill liberal in terms of having policy opinions, being sincere about them, and wanting to improve the country. They aren't traitors, they really want what they say they want, etc. We appear to agree on this; that there are some insincere mercenary bigots using GOP talking points as top cover to hide their bigotry. I'd also say that there are some insincere mercenary selfish rich people using 'free market = good' as top cover to hide a base selfishness. But that isn't most conservatives, any more than the more negative extremes of liberalism represent most liberals.
Nobody here is dehumanizing Republicans or using absurd, over the top language.
You don't think RJ's quote, offered last week during this very conversation, does this? Go back and look at it; not only is it over the top, but he explicitly says there's a contrast between Republicans and Democrats because the latter are mostly sincere in their beliefs about themselves. Directly implying that conservatives are not mostly sincere in their political beliefs. This is exactly the point against which I'm arguing. I'm not arguing against some straw man here; I'm arguing against points made on this thread, last week, by a liberal.
Why won't you just let it go?
Well because as much as I dislike nasty political rhetoric emanating from the right, I dislike nasty political rhetoric emanating from the left more. You're my peeps. Having said that, I'm perfectly happy to let this thread die a natural death if you don't think we have really anything of substance left to discuss.
For the record, the "Other side are traitors" stuff was initiated by the right wing and especially used during the Bush II era.
Are you really going to hang your hat on 'they started it'? I don't think I would accept that defense from someone I opposed (nor, do I think, would you). So why accept it in defense of a liberal?
Do some research if you aren't convinced.
For sake of argument I'll agree: I'm convinced they started it. I just didn't think my side thought 'they started it' was a valid reason to engage in calling political opponents traitors.