And later on,There have certainly been lots of articles on the subject, including lots of peer-reviewed studies that seek to look at original data. I hesitate to term them all "science," since many are descriptive: they design and carry out no experiment and attempt to falsify no hypothesis. They fall into the sort of technically proficient studies of natural history that most of us think of as science but which are really just the groundwork for it. They develop theories about the way the world works; science only happens when those theories get properly tested.
And finally he confesses that he "had the strong impression that research into the hygiene hypothesis had shown that dirt was good for us," but found that he was "mistaken"; the evidence is "clearly weak." Possibly, he had that impression because "[t]he hygiene hypothesis is the sort of story that's attractive to mass media"; I certainly had that impression for that reason (though the hypothesis seems somewhat stronger to me than to Burch). I cannot entirely agree that descriptive studies that formulate no hypotheses are not science; if that were so, then taxonomy might not be considered a science. But it is important that 50 years of careful epidemiological work is not conclusive. Of more concern to me here, however, is the fact that the very scientists who work on the hygiene hypothesis remain unconvinced. Specifically, they do not formulate a hypothesis and then break their necks to support it. Rather, they look at the evidence as dispassionately as anyone can, and they stand ready to discard the hypothesis if it is falsified. Such behavior is in stark contrast to any of several ideologies I could name.The most important thing to note, though, is that what started off inconclusive has stayed that way.The association between infections and allergies was first suggested as long as half a century ago--although originally the idea was that infections caused such diseases, not prevented them. Allergies and autoimmune diseases have risen and parasites have dropped away at the same time as a host of other things have changed--democracy has spread, satellites have been launched, mobile phones have been developed, and a raft of modern politicians elected. If you wanted, you could show an association between any of those aspects of contemporary life and the increase in rates of allergies and autoimmune disorders. Associations are easy to spot, even plausible ones--but proving causation is hard. Might early exposure to bugs and parasites be entirely unrelated to allergies and autoimmune diseases? Quite possibly. It's been suggested that the spread of detergents in the world (which lines up chronologically with every other modern phenomenon) disrupts the mucus lining the inside of our intestines, with some diseases being caused as a result.
14 Comments
DS · 12 March 2012
"They develop theories about the way the world works; science only happens when those theories get properly tested."
Actually, they develop hypotheses about the way the world works; theories only happen when those hypotheses get properly tested and are not falsified.
harold · 12 March 2012
Dave Lovell · 12 March 2012
Just Bob · 12 March 2012
Might there be some ambiguous cause-effect relationship? Perhaps a family line that is genetically predisposed to allergies has, over several generations, tended to move away from farming, so that the population left on the farm tends to be less allergic, and those in urban areas more so. And of course that effect wouldn't obviate the possibility that early and frequent exposure to allergens and pathogens does also contribute to resistance.
Dang, science can be so complicated.
Maybe I'll become a creationist.
............ Nah.
Richard B. Hoppe · 12 March 2012
My great grandmother used to say, "You have to eat a peck of dirt before you die." That settles it for me. :)
harold · 12 March 2012
harold · 12 March 2012
jlesow · 12 March 2012
This is not exactly new. My father was a state health officer and among the first to mandate polio vaccination. He mentioned the rarity of paralytic polio in India and was rather lax about his kids' hygiene; at least he never lectured about our play habits. This would have been in the 50s.
He may have been stricter with my older brother, and he did suffer from allergies.
Matt Young · 12 March 2012
Robert Byers · 13 March 2012
This comment has been moved to The Bathroom Wall.
Dave Luckett · 13 March 2012
Byers, had you ever considered actually checking the empirical data derived from experimental observation about this and other matters? Rather than come up with utter screaming nonsense like "the other colds are just stronger cold virus's" (sic) - whatever that vacuosity is supposed to mean.
I mean, finding out facts by looking up the actual research is a radical suggestion, but it just might work.
apokryltaros · 13 March 2012
DS · 13 March 2012
Tenncrain · 13 March 2012
Byers, since you have been moved from this thread, a reply awaits you here in the Bathroom Wall.