Late last month, Casey Luskin wrote an article advocating a positive case for ID creationism. Jack has already done a good job of refuting Casey's wishful hand waving.
However, in the comments of the post, Casey and I had a little exchange in which I tried to get him to commit to developing a positive model of common design, and he just, well, assured me that his legal education prepared him to deal with the statistics that he was butchering left and right. Yeah, umm . . . anyways, my last comment was never published, and now enough time has passed that I feel I can share it with you and let you decide why it never showed up on the DI's website.
Mr. Luskin, my counter to your article is a simple one. If ID is testable, where is the model that allows me to test its fit to molecular data? Until one exists, your article is nothing but spin. Evolution can do this, why can't ID?
I am being intentionally conservative in how I respond because I don't want to get side tracked into a long debate over Dr. Theobald's paper. I mentioned him because I believe his methodology is the best way to test your claims of the utility of "common design." Thus much of your responses on the quality of his paper are immaterial to the challenge, which is the main point of my argument. (I see them as being off topic. On topic criticisms would be related to the quality of Bayesian analyses.) My reason for bringing up his research is that he developed a robust statistical test for universal common ancestry and executed it. That is more than the fellows of the Discovery Institute have developed in two decades of trying to disprove common descent. His research isn't perfect, but it is still better than hot air.
If you don't like how Dr. Theobald constructed his models, his research provides a framework for doing what you see as a proper test. For instance, you criticize him for not using a proper model of "common design", yet the Discovery Institute has yet to produce a model to of how molecular data should look under common design. In other words, you criticize him for not including a hypothesis that not been elucidated in either scientific or anti-evolution literature. In my professional opinion, I do believe that his independent origin models are a good approximation to "common design" and much more rigorous than anything you or your comrades have proposed. But you disagree, which is why I ask you to educate me on how molecular data should look under a ID-approved model of common design. (Which is another reason why I can't develop such a model. It won't be ID-approved.)
If I sound disingenuous, it is because I believe that neither your nor any other fellow of the Discovery Institute has any interest in doing any work to develop a positive model of ID and test whether molecular data fits it. (That doesn't mean that I won't encourage you to prove me wrong.) You'd rather complain about Dr. Theobald not including a model of common design approved by you, than actually showing us what that model should look like. This is why I'm trying to keep us on track. Because I want to see an alternative model, not complaints about what Dr. Theobald used.
While it is true that you don't have to use Bayes-factor analysis for every hypothesis test, it is also true that the body of evolutionary research is rich enough and well developed enough to support such models. In other words, in evolution we have models that allow us to calculate "P(data | common descent)". These models are core to our research and teaching programs. Despite all the rhetoric, ID lacks even rudimentary models for "P(data | common design)". The gauntlet has been thrown down. Care to pick it up?
By challenging you to develop something that can be inserted into a Bayes-factor analyses, I'm challenging you to develop a new, positive approach to ID, one that doesn't rely on negative argumentation. You seem rather confident on your statistical training from law school and before that, thus I think you should at least try to put something together for the community.
I find it ironic that you insist on citing Dr. Martin's comments, and I suspect that you have failed to accurately parse his convoluted prose. Paraphrasing him: "Theobald's paper is trivial because we already know that universal common descent is true. Thus it is not novel and should not have been published in Nature." Despite claiming to be aligned with Dr. Martin, you clearly are not making the same argument as him, unless you are really willing to claim that universal common descent is so obviously true that statistical tests of it are not needed. I will note here that in my professional opinion, I disagree with Dr. Martin's views on the novelty of Dr. Theobald's research.
And finally, the point about "null hypotheses" is an important one. When I teach, it is an important criterion to distinguish those who understand the differences in statistical methodologies that those who don't. This isn't a semantic issue; it is a fundamental test to whether you understand what Dr. Theobald did or not. In Fisherian hypothesis testing, a null hypothesis is given special treatment, and picking the null is in reality a matter of taste and convention. In what Dr. Theobald did, there is no hypothesis that was given special treatment, all were treated equally. This is why criticisms that focus on his "null hypothesis" are completely off the mark.
The advantage of treating everything equally is that any critic can develop a better model than Dr. Theobald and test it alongside his models. Instead of criticizing what he did, it would be more productive if you could work on developing a model and show me how it can be done better.
86 Comments
OgreMkV · 21 April 2011
Yeah, no wonder that never made it past Morton's Demon.
robert van bakel · 21 April 2011
'one that doesn't rely on negative argumentation.'?
And what prey, will ID have to fall back on if they cannot, mock,cast aspursions upon,ridicule,disseminate,mis-quote,quote-mine, or generally mangle when 75% of their case (?), 'negative argumentation' is removed? Their science?
Stanton · 21 April 2011
Chris Lawson · 22 April 2011
Did Luskin really claim that his legal training gave him expertise in statistics? That seems...odd.
Michael · 22 April 2011
Funny. Law school statistics. Heh. (Ad homenim snark filter was off)
I think the ID folks are so far away from being able to develop anything resembling a model (let alone a properly constructed hypothesis... wait... theory... wait... ability to argue from logic and not rhetoric... wait, darn snark filter!), that while your comment is intelligent, compelling, and completely reasonable, it would just be ignored if it was even fully understood.
Off to get my snark filter fixed...
Thanks for the thoughtful laugh this AM!
Chris Lawson · 22 April 2011
Well, I guess it's on par with his legal expertise in genetics, evolution, and thermodynamics.
harold · 22 April 2011
To state the obvious...
Scientific hypotheses can be stated in a testable way, because the objective is to test hypotheses and see which one fits the data. Although individuals may emotionally favor and advocate for one hypothesis, that's not really the objective, and that tends to randomize out anyway - for every scientist whose too stubbornly committed to one hypothesis, there are many who aren't, and a few who are too stubbornly committed to a rival hypothesis.
An overt test of ID/creationism would be intolerable to its creators and followers. It would fail; we all know that, because it has already failed - there is no coherent hypothesis of ID/creationism, beyond the claim that magic is required for certain things that can be explained without magic.
There are very obvious tests of ID/creationism that can be carried out any time. Take a sterile environment and pray that the designer will make a novel macroscopic multicellular life form poof into it by magic within a certain amount of time. Pray that no more transitional fossils will be found. They could have been praying that Lenski's E. coli never evolved a novel trait.
But no tests will ever be proposed or carried out.
Fake "predictions" will be common, but no actual workable test that clearly rules ID/creationism in or out will be suggested, and in fact, efforts will always be made to keep it to vague and obfuscatory to be tested.
harold · 22 April 2011
Apologies for the whose/who's typo
OgreMkV · 22 April 2011
VJBinCT · 22 April 2011
An historical note: Thomas Bayes, whose statistical method is now so useful, died 250 years ago last week. Without computers, it had little application. Thanks to a friend, a Mr. Price, who found the manuscript of the paper in Bayes' effects after his death, it was read before the Royal Society and then published. Pretty amazing. And lucky for us Mr. Price was looking out for his friend's legacy.
John Kwok · 22 April 2011
RBH -
To the best of my knowledge, Luskin's training in geology never gave him a fundamental understanding of statistics, period, whether it is classical parametric statistics (based upon well-understood assumptions with regards to the Normal Distribution) or one based on Bayesian methodology.
The only Dishonesty Institute "savant" who has tried to offer any kind of test regarding "design" as it has been conceived by an "Intelligent Designer" is Stephen Meyer, especially in his chapter on using the fossil record to test for "deviations" from a "true" Design in his "Signature in the Cell", but what he proposes is utterly simplistic and ignores constraints imposed by phylogenetic history. If Meyer can't accomplish anything remotely akin to what you demanded from Luskin, I am reasonably confident that no one at the Dishonesty Institute - especially Luskin - will ever demonstrate a scientifically rigorous test for some aspect of Intelligent Design.
mrg · 22 April 2011
John Kwok · 22 April 2011
harold · 22 April 2011
Questions for ID/creationism advocates -
I know you're out there. Here are some questions.
1) If an ID/creationism advocate did design a test of prediction that legitimately tested ID versus the theory of evolution, and if ID failed, what would you do? Would you accept the theory of evolution? Could any evidence or test convince you? Can YOU give me an example of what such a test would be?
2) What is an example of something that is not intelligently designed?
3) Who is the designer? Do you secretly believe that the designer is Jehovah, but refuse to state that in order to to support the claim that "ID isn't religious"? If so, is this behavior compatible with Christianity?
4) Exactly what did the designer do, in detail?
5) When did the designer do it?
6) How did the designer do it?
386sx · 22 April 2011
SWT · 22 April 2011
Stanton · 22 April 2011
GODDESIGNERDIDIT" as the alpha and omega of science, consistently refuse to explain how the Designer did it.mrg · 22 April 2011
Doc Bill · 22 April 2011
harold · 22 April 2011
John Kwok · 22 April 2011
fnxtr · 22 April 2011
I keep wondering, "if it's not mechanistic, what is it?"
The only answer I can think of is "magic".
(Compare to JoeG's "Design is a mechanism".)
GIGO.
Karen S. · 22 April 2011
Karen S. · 22 April 2011
John_S · 22 April 2011
Scott F · 22 April 2011
Flint · 22 April 2011
TomS · 23 April 2011
Mike Clinch · 23 April 2011
John Kwok · 23 April 2011
harold · 23 April 2011
Mike Clinch -
Your answers are 100% correct :). You gave a scientific answer to question 2), so I'll discuss the unutterable ID/creationist answer below.
I should fill you in on some background. I've been arguing against politicized creationism since I first became aware of it in 1999, due to the original Kansas School Board incident. (I was aware of Jack Chick tracts, creationist beliefs of fundie sects, and so on before that, but had been blissfully unaware of political efforts to get it into public schools.)
I'd love to see an ID/creationist attempt to answer my questions, but at the same time, the point is kind of that they can't and won't. The only reason they can't is the legalistic and political nature of ID. Let's go through it. Recall that the whole point of "ID" is to "court proof" creationism.
1) Of course, there is no evidence that could turn them around; that's courtroom poison so they can't say so. (I'll note here that if ID wasn't an attempted courtroom con, they could openly admit that nothing would turn them away from their faith. I won't repeat this point, but you'll see below how, if it wasn't for legal considerations, they could, in general, answer the questions.)
2) You gave an obvious answer from biology, but what's a fundamentalist going to say? Jehovah designed everything in its present form 6000 years ago, and if earthquakes or lightening changed features within the time he can admit has passed, well, those were Jehovah's will, too. Another more subtle problem for them here is that an answer would lead to "why is this designed and that not?" challenges, but the basic issue here is - "can't say it was all designed by Jehovah, can't say it wasn't, either".
3) Of course it's Jehovah; can't say that in court.
4) This is a huge dilemma for them. The emotional appeal of creationism is that human beings were magically created. They hate abiogenesis, but only because it's one more argument against humans being magically created, not because they give a damn about how bacteria were created.
Nobody really gives a crap about the distinction between "God willed the big bang 13 or 14 billion years ago and simple unicellular life emerged on earth, which eventually gave rise to the modern biosphere" versus "God willed the big bang, and then about 10 billion years later he willed the creation of a crude unicellular ancestor to modern life (and may have helped out with flagella along the way)". If you're already reducing Jehovah to rare or trivial acts, possibly millions or billions of years apart, why not just say that he "wills" or "gives meaning" to everything, be done with it, and stop arguing with the scientific explanation?
Back when ID was all the rage, I had a canned speech in which I would explain its claims. My original plan was to then explain the flaws, but I never had to go beyond "bacterial flagellum could not have evolved". People rejected it as soon as they heard those words.
Incidentally, they tried "bacterial flagellum" in court, and the jury laughed. On the other hand "God breathed life into the dust and it became Adam" is a loser if you're trying to argue that it isn't a religious explanation. Big dilemma.
5) "When" is a big stumbling block. Can't say "4004 BC" in court. "Don't know when"? Some of them try that, but it's a HUGE sticking point. Funding drops every time someone at the DI says anything that implies "old". "Old Earth Creationists" are isolated crackpots, YEC gets all the money. One big reason why is that everybody sees that if there's enough time, evolution is the obvious explanation. That was always the sole argument of highly intelligent 19th century Anglican Church leaders against erosion, evolution, etc. "Sounds reasonable, but there wasn't enough time, therefore magic creation".
6) Magic, miracle, whatever. Note that here they use a different strategy. Try to say words like "design" or "discontinuity", which are, in the context, synonyms for "magic". Again though, can't say "miracle", "divine will", etc, in court.
Mike Clinch · 23 April 2011
John Kwok · 23 April 2011
Karen S. · 23 April 2011
John Kwok · 23 April 2011
Mike Clinch · 23 April 2011
John Kwok · 23 April 2011
harold · 23 April 2011
Although I don't practice religion personally, Happy Easter to everyone who does, and everyone who is looking for an excuse to eat chocolate eggs. (I personally use the terms "Easter" and "Christmas" frequently, as they have strong positive cultural connotations for me, although I may interchangeably use terms like "Happy Holidays", especially to emphasize the ecumenical and universal nature of traditional solstice festivities).
May the Multicultural Spring Festival Fertility Symbol Rabbit be generous to all with his Fertility Symbol Confectionery.
Matt Young · 23 April 2011
harold · 23 April 2011
I use the term "Jehovah" as a clear way of signifying the deity of modern Christian fundamentalism; no offense is intended and it is a commonly used traditional form.
Terms like "God", "god", "divine being", and so on are more ambiguous.
Obviously, "Jehovah" isn't necessarily universally accepted by, nor specific to, creationists, either, but nothing is perfect.
As I have noted many times, I strongly support everyone's right to live and believe as they see fit. My arguments with creationists, for that matter, are SOLELY that they attempt to violate rights by teaching sectarian dogma in public schools, and promote the use of sectarian dogma and science denial in deciding public policy.
fnxtr · 23 April 2011
John Kwok · 23 April 2011
Science Avenger · 23 April 2011
Paul Burnett · 23 April 2011
Hercules Grytpype-Thynne · 23 April 2011
harold · 24 April 2011
John Kwok · 24 April 2011
henry · 24 April 2011
Paul Burnett · 24 April 2011
Wolfhound · 24 April 2011
Just Bob · 24 April 2011
mrg · 24 April 2011
As they used to say way back when: Christ has returned, and she's black.
Science Avenger · 24 April 2011
Stanton · 24 April 2011
Hercules Grytpype-Thynne · 24 April 2011
It's called archaism. From the point of view of 16th/17th-century English, it's our writing that is grammatically mangled.
SWT · 24 April 2011
Re: Liturgical grammar ...
"The Lord is come" was at one point a perfectly standard English construction, but that form fell out of used in the last century or so. When I was learning to read German, my professor used this as an example of how to form (IIRC) the present perfect for strong verbs (Er ist gekommen vs. Er hat gekommen) -- the formulation used in the hymn is a tidbit left from the evolution of English from an earlier Germanic form. I think it's retained as a tradition.
"The Lord is risen" is an affirmation that Christ not only arose, but is still risen -- that He didn't die sometime after the resurrection.
NoNick · 24 April 2011
W. H. Heydt · 24 April 2011
Henry J · 24 April 2011
mrg · 24 April 2011
mrg · 24 April 2011
You're referring: "He says the sheriff is near!" Yeah, let's not go there.
JASONMITCHELL · 25 April 2011
henry · 25 April 2011
henry · 25 April 2011
bobsie · 25 April 2011
Just Bob · 25 April 2011
Better check with your fundie mentors, henry. You're not allowed to "guess" about such articles of faith. You must have FAITH and KNOW.
And you'd better know the right thing, or you're going to Hell.
Rolf Aalberg · 25 April 2011
Shebardigan · 25 April 2011
Marilyn · 26 April 2011
Hi mrg, from a previous reply, I’ve been thinking about because it bothers me too. The illnesses you mentioned, you know there is relief and there are treatments for some illnesses that are not available to be given to people only because they live at the wrong side of town. There could possibly be cures for illnesses, cures that we don’t know about that for some reason are not distributed to people not only in the third world but in numerous places. The governing bodies in charge of such matters must have their reasons. Money could be one. Illnesses that are related to lifestyle could be another. Or just “don’t want to”. Alternative medicines and preventions can go along way to helping sufferers I don’t mean illegal or untried or unknown remedies.
Chili Pepper · 26 April 2011
Matt Young · 26 April 2011
God says, "Ehyeh asher ehyeh," which is sorta hard to translate into English because ancient Hebrew had a very different conception of time (which I simply can't internalize). It means something like "I am who I am," but the implication is continuing action -- "I will always be who I always am" perhaps? Anyway, the root YHVH looks like it might have the same root as the verb for "to be," but as far as I know that is not certain, and YHVH is not a homonym.
Hercules Grytpype-Thynne · 26 April 2011
John_S · 26 April 2011
Regarding the question of "is risen" vs "has risen": are we sure "risen" is a verb? I thought it was an adverb (or maybe an adjective - I get confused when "to be" is involved) describing the condition of being "risen".
Consider the sentence "he is given to uncontrollable rages". Clearly, changing "is given" to "has given" would produce nonsense (unless "uncontrollable rages" were the name of some charity ...).
Regardless of one's opinion of the Bible or the KJV, the translators were highly-regarded scholars at Oxford, Cambridge and Westminster, well-versed in English, Greek, Latin and Hebrew. It's pretty unlikely they would have made a simple, bone-headed grammatical error.
Dave Luckett · 27 April 2011
"Risen" is here a gerund, a verb particle being used as an abstract noun, being the name of a condition which is the result of an act. "She is married" is another example.
Matt Young · 27 April 2011
I do not know why we are discussing this phrase, but I would have called "risen" or "married" participles functioning as predicate adjectives. Whatever you call it, there is no question that "he is risen" is correct, if archaic English.
Science Avenger · 28 April 2011
David Fickett-Wilbar · 1 May 2011
David Fickett-Wilbar · 1 May 2011
John Kwok · 4 May 2011
I wonder whether Casey Luskin should consult with this "genius", one Dennis Jones, a paralegal from California (that's the extent of his education BTW), who has a Facebook page devoted to the "future" of Intelligent Design (It's called "Intelligent Design: the future".). Before he booted me off of his group, he whine and moaned:
John, I called you a liar already, and I'm going to call you a liar again now.
"Intelligent Design can't do this."
Strawman. ID doesn't study fossils. ID is about biochemistry and bioinformatics, http://www.designinference.com/ and http://...www.evoinfo.org/.
"All it does is to say that some Intelligent Designer was responsible for the 'Cambrian Explosion.'"
BULLSHIT, you fucking liar. ID has NOTHING to do with a designer. ID does observe the obvious fact that there was a higher degree of radiation present during the Cambrian and there are conjectures as to how information increased at that time.
ID is not a contemplation of the supernatural. You are imposing a false strawman caricature upon ID. ID is a study of information in the genome of a population, how DNA originates and how the information increases towards greater complexity. However information might be sequenced, and compartmentalized into genes or other quantifiable purpose for measurement, we do know that the information we are seeking results in the formation of an original biochemical structure.
1. MECHANISM: ID as a mechanism in and of itself – Intelligent Design is the action and result of artificial intervention interrupting undirected natural processes, such as natural selection. Examples include genetic engineering and selective breeding.
2. HYPOTHESIS: ID as a scientific hypothesis in biology – Intelligent Design is the proposition that evolution requires an artificial intervention in addition to natural selection and mutations.
3. SCIENTIFIC THEORY: Intelligent Design Theory in Biology is the scientific theory that artificial intervention is a universally necessary condition of the first initiation of life, development of the first cell, and increasing information in the genome of a population leading to greater complexity evidenced by the generation of original biochemical structures.
If you peruse the proposition statements you will see there is no reference to a designer whatsoever. I would greatly appreciate it if you never reference a condescending "Designer" references again in a message thread I originate again. I have never expressed ID Theory in terms of the supernatural, nor have any of the fellows of the Discovery Institute. If you ever push that absurdity in a thread of mine again, you better have some documentation to back up your unfounded rhetoric, or I'll delete your bullshit in a heartbeat.
I already told you several times now that ID is not about the supernatural, and you are not listening or paying attention.
The news article I posted to open this thread is currently in the news right now, and the original press release straight from the researchers at UC Davis. Regards.
henry · 5 May 2011
mrg · 5 May 2011
Yawn.
Stanton · 5 May 2011
John Kwok · 5 May 2011
henry · 7 May 2011
Dave Luckett · 7 May 2011
henry, since you appear to be ignorant of canid evolution - and why not? - "the beginning", as you put it, is about 60 million years back, when the ancestors of the mammalian carnivores began to diverge. Canidae were among the first to emerge as a distinct line. The earliest members of the group were small and apparently partly aboreal. Though skeletal and dental evidence makes it clear that they were already evolving towards the modern canid, they looked more like martens, but less adapted to climbing. That is, if you go far back enough, we do find forms that are something other than "dogs, wolves, etc". It hasn't been that way from the beginning, and it will not necessarily always be that way.
Sorry, henry, but your ignorance is not an argument. It is only evidence of itself.
John Kwok · 7 May 2011