Testing Common Design
Recently I've been thinking that it might be possible to test a subset of creationist arguments: that molecular similarities are better explained by common design than common descent.
I believe that using a Bayes factor-based analysis along the lines of Theobald (2010) would be the appropriate approach. Not only would this force the construction a positive model of design (a first in creationism), but one can also integrate over the different intelligent designers that the DI likes to throw out there. So whether Hanuman, God, Jesus, God, the Holy Ghost, God, Richard Dawkins, God, Moses, God, Uranus, God, Thor, God, Prof. X, or God is the true common designer (or a mixture of the ones above), they all can be included in the model.
Of course, ID advocates would probably insist on using a Dirac delta function as the prior.
42 Comments
Joel · 1 April 2011
You forgot the Flying Spaghetti Monster. Antipasta much?
Matt G · 1 April 2011
I'd LOVE to see the creationist math behind pseudogenes.
Mike Elzinga · 1 April 2011
So the creationist argument would be the integral over r from -∞ to +∞ of ΣiGi(r) δ(r - ri) where
Gi(r) is the ith god as function of r which equals 1 if the god exists and 0 if it does not exist, and
ri is the four-vector location of the ith god's abode.
OgreMkV · 1 April 2011
I too think about this (probably more than I should)... so...
What and how have you decided to quantify?
One of the 'issues' with ID is that they continue to insist on 'function' as an important concept within their systems. Since that's non-quantifiable, do you plan on taking that into account.
If you're going to do a straight DNA or protein sequence comparison, then I would encourage you to include truly random sequences as a control.
TomS · 2 April 2011
Does common design explain why humans are most similar, among all living things, to chimps and bonobos?
Does that mean that we have common purposes? That to fulfill the goals of the common design we ought to behave like apes?
OgreMkV · 2 April 2011
mrg · 2 April 2011
Hercules Grytpype-Thynne · 2 April 2011
Matt G · 2 April 2011
OgreMkV · 2 April 2011
TomS · 2 April 2011
mrg · 2 April 2011
Matt G · 2 April 2011
mrg · 2 April 2011
OgreMkV · 2 April 2011
Yeah, I hate April 1st. We ought to rename it "Poe's Law Day".
Wonderist · 2 April 2011
The link to Bayes factors just re-links to this post. What is the correct link?
TomS · 2 April 2011
Wheels · 2 April 2011
OgreMkV · 2 April 2011
Wheels · 2 April 2011
He's getting at two ridiculous claims of ID, where we are only similar to other apes through "Common Design," and the metaphysical argument that Design gives us purpose whereas "just random accidental chance" doesn't. He's sending up those arguments by implying that our common design with other primates means we have a common "purpose" as other primates, which is something very few IDists would agree with.
Matt Young · 2 April 2011
Reed A. Cartwright · 2 April 2011
Link fixed.
harold · 2 April 2011
1) Common descent is the position of people who care about truth and evidence. This group of people will change what they say according to what the evidence shows. Common descent predicts common biochemical pathways.
2) Magic "design" is the position of a group of people who merely defend a self-serving propaganda position no matter what any evidence shows. It makes no predictions; in fact, they deliberately structure their claims to be able to deny making an actual prediction. Their proclamations are as informative as a broken clock.
3) If biochemical pathways were substantially different across different lineages (which they are not, but if they were), both groups of people would call this a challenge for common descent - one group by following the evidence, and the other group because that is what they will say no matter what.
4) Since biochemical pathways are remarkably conserved across all of life, the people who care about objective evidence say that common descent is supported. The other group of people just keep saying "design" because that is what they will say no matter what.
There is no real need to test "common design" because no serious person has ever hypothesized "common design". "Common design" is just a half-assed ad hoc pseudo-rationalization adopted after the fact by those who are committed to saying "magical design" no matter what is observed.
Olorin · 2 April 2011
mrg · 2 April 2011
John Harshman · 2 April 2011
I actually discussed this seriously with Doug Theobald last year. I suggested that one model of "common design" that would be incompatible with common descent would be a star tree, so instead of comparing the standard tree with isolated sequences you might compare it with a star tree. Unfortunately he couldn't find a program that would properly evaluate likelihoods over a star tree.
Of course that's only one model. Since "common design" implies nothing, it's hard to test using any one model, or any set of models.
mrg · 2 April 2011
John Kwok · 3 April 2011
RBH · 3 April 2011
Henry J · 3 April 2011
Not to mention the occasional monkey business!
ppb · 4 April 2011
I think Intelligent Design explains why humans resemble Vulcans and Klingons more closely than they do chimpanzees.
TomS · 4 April 2011
(Apologies for this heavy handed treatment of your post.)
All imaginary beings are (by definition) intelligently designed. (And some real things are not intelligently designed, unless "intelligently designed" is so meaningless as to apply to everything). Which goes to show that intelligent design is not enough to explain anything's existence.
mrg · 4 April 2011
"Number One, why is it that on every planet in the Federation, the inhabitants look exactly like humans except for different patterns of bumps on their heads?"
"Beats me, sir."
John Vanko · 4 April 2011
How to test common design?
It's a bit different from 'recognizing' common design.
ID proponents know it when they see it, but they can't tell us how they know it.
Paley only knew that the watch laying out there on the moor was 'designed' because he knew, a priori, that humans design watches. (An ethereal alien, without knowledge of planet Earth, would not necessarily know that the watch was a design of 'intelligence'. Indeed, the alien, with knowledge of carbon-based evolution, might consider the watch 'natural'.)
To be honest, the only design we really know about is human design - tools, clothes, art, etc. (Okay, and maybe some animal tool use, and some natural 'designs' like Fibonacci series in flowers, etc etc etc.)
And human design leaves a signature - like the semiconductor company that left the figure of a valentine's heart with a bite out of it, and the letters MMI, to tell Monolithic Memories Inc to "eat your heart out!"
Or an artist's signature, or a patent number.
So testing design might be as simple as finding the signature or patent number of the Great Designer - something non-functional that says "I designed this!".
As humans, the best we can do is assign our traits to the Great Designer - creating the Great Designer in our own image, as it were.
So back over to the ID proponents - show us a signature that says "I designed this!".
Kevin B · 4 April 2011
harold · 4 April 2011
John Vanko -
Of course false analogies with human design are one of the most basic ID/creationist arguments.
I think you're being a bit unfair to birds and insects, among others, though. They do a lot of designing.
An ornithologist examining a bird's nest created by an unknown species of bird might be able to make some good guesses about the type of bird who designed it. Buy why? Because he knows about what other birds design.
In all valid, scientific studies of "design" - archaeology, forensics, special expertise in wasp's nests, whatever - the starting point is the nature of the designer. By definition, this implicitly includes the limitations of the designer. SETI is no different. The idea is that humans use the radio wave portion of the EM spectrum to send human-recognizable messages (messages which can also be interpreted by other species such as dogs under certain circumstances), so maybe aliens with some features in common with humans might do the same thing.
YEC used to at least specify a designer, but since that designer was omnipotent and inscrutable, i.e. "could do anything and we may never know why", it wasn't a useful concept. No limitations, no testable hypotheses. Maybe the Empire State Building was designed by Vishnu one minute ago, along with all my "memories" of it having been there before. All I can say is that I have an explanation for it that doesn't require Last Thursdayism style magic.
ID/creationism is in even worse shape. It's fundamentally a political/legal scam. The real goal was always only to make creationist claims while dissembling that they are "not religious" in order to "court proof" them for public schools. Therefore, it can't even admit that an omnipotent and inscrutable Jehovah is the designer. So it's forced into the absurd position of claiming that things with a good natural explanation must have been "designed" by "intelligence", while claiming to be completely ignorant about the identity of the designer (and fending off approaches from crackpots with non-Fundamentalist Christian claims of "designer" identity) and then spinning millions upon millions of words of dissembling bafflegab in an elaborate bluff.
John Vanko · 4 April 2011
I agree with you.
When I first heard of ID I thought it was a joke cooked up by some YECreationists who thought they had pulled the wool over the eyes of those atheist scientists.
It went something like this:
"Those atheist scientists are obligated to investigate every scientific possibility for the origin and development of life on Earth. If we posit an unknown 'Designer', and don't use the name of God, then those atheist scientists will spend the rest of their careers trying to find evidence for, or disprove, our conjecture, which we know is unprovable and unfalsifiable. How can they deny it might not have been little green aliens? We will show them for the fools they are. Praise God! er ... I mean the Designer!"
mharri · 4 April 2011
Mr. Vanko: Clearly, you are joking; but some have claimed to have found your signature. The argument, whose sheer stupidity makes my head hurt just from the recollection (this from a guy who loves bad puns!), goes something as follows. Since DNA is made up of letters, and human language is made up of letters, clearly DNA is a language. Well, languages mean communication, right? And who would communicate in DNA? God.
John Vanko · 4 April 2011
Roger · 5 April 2011
Frank J · 5 April 2011
Not to defend ID in any way, but isn't this all moot since an Michael Behe, ironically one of the ID peddlers most cited by rank-and-file evolution-deniers, has admitted for 15+ years that "common design" (which he apparently favors as an explanation) is not mutually exclusive with common descent (which he also favors over the popular mutually contradictory "independent origins" models)? Especially since those ID peddlers who still prefer to pretend otherwise, nevertheless refuse to challenge their own on that crucial issue?
harold · 7 April 2011