250 years of Bayes!

Bayesian stats. Gotta love 'em!

"Any of us scientists working today would be beyond lucky to have our work cited 250 later!"

Beyond is right! Having your paper cited 250 years later has nothing to do with luck; it has to do with nailing down something that's truly important.

He is buried in Bunhill Fields (Wikipedia: Bunhill Fields). His grave is marked on the map.

rossum

250 years of Bayes, and most people still don't know their prior
from their posterior.

He is buried in Bunhill Fields (Wikipedia: Bunhill Fields). His grave is marked on the map.

Here is a good introductory explanation of Bayes' Theorem

Ironically, the Reverend Bayes is the bane of intelligent design theorists. Dembski gave an entire chapter of one of his books to discrediting Bayesian hypothesis testing.

Hmm. I haven't read any of Demski's books, having read a few of his articles leaves me with no inclination to voluntarily suffer such abuse, but I would guess Dembski's complaint was broadly the "materialistic science" angle.

After all, it wouldn't be all that applicable to "nonmaterialistic science", would it?

mrg said: Hmm. I haven't read any of Demski's books, having read a few of his articles leaves me with no inclination to voluntarily suffer such abuse, but I would guess Dembski's complaint was broadly the "materialistic science" angle. After all, it wouldn't be all that applicable to "nonmaterialistic science", would it?

Malchus said: He is a very poor writer.

Malchus said: Dembski's works suffer from the problem of grossly simplified mathematics, inappropriately applied, and explained with remarkably turgid, clunky prose. He is a very poor writer.

mrg said: Hmm. I haven't read any of Demski's books, having read a few of his articles leaves me with no inclination to voluntarily suffer such abuse, but I would guess Dembski's complaint was broadly the "materialistic science" angle. After all, it wouldn't be all that applicable to "nonmaterialistic science", would it?

It is apparently frequently the case that the names of theorems are attributed to mathematicians who didn’t actually do the real work on the theorem while the person who actually derived the theorem doesn’t get his/her name attached to the work.

Let A = the statement that the attributions for theorems frequently do not reflect who actually did the work.

Let B = the statement that Bayes Theorem is due to Bayes.

Then what is P(B|A)?

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