Over at Uncommon Descent Dr. Dembski has replied to commentators who pointed out he misrepresented climate science, especially his claim that in the 70's
The scare back then was global cooling!
In response, Dr. Dembski
quotes an article which proves he did misrepresent climate science. If that's not enough, he goes on to make stuff up.
I draw your attention to the last clause: there was "a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s." One would think that this would constitute "scientific evidence" for global cooling. ..... But the Principle of Methodological Counterintuitiveness tells us that this just means that the earth is getting warmer.
Well, what did we expect (and he's probably doing it just to stir scientists up anyway). What caused people to conclude global warming was the relentless rise in temperature from the early 70's on.
What is more interesting is the continued tone of science envy, carried over from
his previous article.
What allows scientists to line their pockets with our tax dollars is that science must, perforce, tell us things that we can't figure out on our own.
Yes, yes, all those research grants go into our pockets weighs them down so much we can't move except to type our panic-inducing screeds (
I've dealt with this before). But weirdly, he is also envious of the counter intuitiveness of science.
But the Principle of Methodological Counterintuitiveness tells us that this just means that the earth is getting warmer. .... (a corollary of the Principle of Methodological Counterintuitiveness is that the greatness of a scientist is in direct proportion to the counterintuitiveness of his/her theories). Note that this is a methodological principle -- we make it a method of science to look for the most counterintuitive theory and then baptize it as "science.
The findings of science
are quite often counter-intuitive. That the Earth rotates around the Sun, that disease is caused by invisible living organisms, mass bends space (and so on and so on, don't get me started on Quantum Mechanics)). Even in the simplest things. Ask someone to imagine they are walking along carrying a ball, and ask where the ball would land when they dropped it, most people imagine the ball would fall behind them, instead of beside them. Most of what we intuitively believe about the world is wrong.
But being counter-intuitive is not enough, these findings have to be supported by evidence. Earths rotation around the Sun is supported by the phases of Venus, Foucault's pendulum, Stellar parallax and a whole lot more beside. A funny theory by some fusty old gent with big whiskers is accepted because of the findings of genetics, biogeography, paleontology, molecular biology and so on. And Global Warming is accepted because the world is warming.
And what about that flat bit in the warming record, from roughly 1940 to 1970? We were pumpimg out CO
2 then, whey did the warming pause? Surely that flat bit is counter-intuitive. But at the same time as we were pumping out CO
2, we were also pumping out a wide variety of aerosols, soot, sulfides and so on,
which acted as cooling agents. In the 60's, clean air acts were passed which reduced the input of the cooling aerosols, and the existing aerosols slowly precipitated out. by the 70's warming started again. (actually, it's a little bit more complicated, but lets leave the detailed stuff to Real Climate see also
here and
here).
The pause in warming may seem counter-intuitive, but there was a good reason for it, explained
via painstakingly collected evidence. Dr. Dembski may envy us for our money (snort) and counter-intuitiveness, but the whole point of science comes back to evidence, the money we spend on experiments to produced data, and the counter-intuitiveness comes for that data of the real world confounding our expectations. Now if only the Discovery institute could get their minds around the
data part of the equation.
(PS really read "
How to talk to a climate skeptic")
95 Comments
wright · 30 July 2009
I'm beginning to understand how worrisome people like Dembski are, in that their sneering, anti-science posturing is so accepted by so much of the public. I read his stuff, having only a layman's grasp of most subjects, see all the strawmen, ad hominems and outright lies, and wonder who can take this person seriously. He's a self-parody.
But clearly, people do. That's why it is so important to keep countering his potentially dangerous nonsense.
Mike Elzinga · 30 July 2009
rimpal · 30 July 2009
Most of what we intuitively believe about the world is wrong.
Growing up in India, I got almost all my popular science education from English translations of books published in the Soviet Union - the publishing powerhouse Mir Publishers. Their titles were simply illustrated, very, I mean very, well written, and free of any attempt to be politically correct about the material world. Common sense and intuition were given the short shrift, mercilessly if necessary. While the titles at the British Council Library and the USIS Library were better in gorgeous colour, glossy, and racy, Mir Publisher titles - books actually - were informative and educational, with the advanced level books good enough to be used as textbooks. And of course the British Council and USIS libraries had long waiting lists and after the arrival of the failed school marm in the UK and the fake cowboy across the pond their budgets were cut drastically and the libraries became less cheerful places. Even after the breakup of the USSR Mir Publishers titles were available for some time. Only now, thanks to the manufactured controversies over evolutionary biology have scientists in the US started reading out the riot act on scientific writing. Hope they continue to do so.
Wheels · 30 July 2009
It wasn't just the rise in temperatures from the 70s onward, warming was predicted to occur based on human introduction of greenhouse gases way back at the turn of the century by Arrhenius.
By the time most of the "global cooling" papers were published, they were already outnumbered by the body of papers predicting a warming trend and rather consistently outpaced by them year after year. (PDF) But given Dembski's Methodology of Counterintuitiveness, that must mean that science really did predict global cooling over global warming!
eric · 30 July 2009
Dembski's just leading us on a wild goose chase. Let's try and remember the big picture:
1. Dembski falls for a math blunder in support of his non-AGW stance.
2. People challenge him on the math blunder.
3. He responds by quoting another article in support of no-AGW. But (tricky tricky D), he misquotes it so badly that he successfully shifts people's attention away from the original blunder on to the new blunder (which is probably a lot less personally embarrasing, considering he's a mathematician).
Do not be distracted. Continue to ask him why he thinks the McLean et al. paper (not some other paper) refutes global warming.
KP · 30 July 2009
fnxtr · 30 July 2009
DM: you can just put brackets around TM and it comes out as the trademark superscript, thus(TM). Kewl, huh?
fnxtr · 30 July 2009
Though the carat/exponent thing sends the message clearly, too.
fnxtr · 30 July 2009
caret. Jeez.
KP · 30 July 2009
DavidK · 30 July 2009
For Dembski's term "methodological counterintuitiveness,' the closest I could come was this reference in the wikipedia, which in Dembski's case seems appropriate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudoscience
And Ian, please, I'm being picky here, but you said "...the Earth [rotates] around the Sun?" No, the earth [revolves] around the sun in its orbit and [rotates] around it's axis on a 24 hr cycle. Also, Foucault’s pendulum does not support the Earth revolving around the sun, but does demonstrate the Earth rotating on its axis.
Though they are frequently confusted, there is a marked difference between the two.
Henry J · 30 July 2009
truthspeaker · 30 July 2009
I don't think it's science envy so much as science resentment. The natural world is hard to understand, and he blames scientists for that.
Joe Shelby · 30 July 2009
About the 1940-1970 and "the many variables involved", one could also point out that from 1938 to 1945, conventional weaponry was pumping more dust into the air than had ever been done by that source before or since.
And to make matters worse, above-ground nuclear testing was kicking up almost as much in a matter of seconds and was happening all over the world throughout that era (in islands in the pacific, mountain ranges in china, deserts in America and Australia, and who knows where the Soviets were doing their bit...).
Above ground nuclear testing slowed considerably by choice and by treaty by the 1970s.
So you had major sources of planet-cooling dust that aren't kicking up dust anymore.
waynef · 30 July 2009
Dembski said, "What allows scientists to line their pockets with our tax dollars is that science must, perforce, tell us things that we can’t figure out on our own."
I'm am engineer and, I assume, am considered a scientist. I personally feel that mine is a noble profession where I have the great fortune of working with the laws of science on a daily basis in the pursuit of designing great structures and processes that have taken mankind on a grand and wonderful journey.
Yes, every day Mr. Dembski I work on wonderous concepts that neither you, nor the general population could even begin to "figure out on [your] own".
You don't agree? Fine. You sit at my desk for one day and design a plane or a bridge or a spaceship or a chemical plant or a pollution control system and we'll see.
truthspeaker · 30 July 2009
The thing is, Demski could, if he wanted, go to school for a long time and learn the skills and background knowledge required to understand it himself. Scientists are not hoarding this knowledge, nor are they dissuading people from becoming educating themselves about science. Quite the opposite.
DavidK · 30 July 2009
eric · 30 July 2009
Brian · 30 July 2009
At it's simplest, he blithely ignored his own article: "This hypothesis never had significant scientific support, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s."
Reread that first bit about "This hypothesis never had significant scientific support." Also, this whole discussion and analysis of the graph, shows again how the term global climate change is a better term then global warming. Some of our pollutants do cool the planet. We should limit them, but that does make CO^2 emissions more potent.
DS · 30 July 2009
Dembski said, “What allows scientists to line their pockets with our tax dollars is that science must, perforce, tell us things that we can’t figure out on our own.”
So, Dembski admits he is no scientist. Good to know. Well I recently received a copy of "The Evolution Wars" which described him as "a scientist". I sent the book back.
What allows Dembski to line his pockets is lying about science to those too ignorant to know better. Which do you think would be greater sin?
Oh and of course Dembski is dead wrong again. There is absolutely nothing preventing scientists from telling us things that we can figure out on our own. Would Dembski prefer that scientists do that instead?
JohnW · 30 July 2009
Dembski's playing to his audience.
Based on his behaviour since Dover, he's given up on getting anywhere politically, legally or scientifically with his ID cargo cult. All that's left is to take what he can from his base: poorly-educated religious conservatives. And which sector of society is most likely to beleive there's an evil cabal of pointy-headed intellectuals conspiring to obtain money and power by spouting stuff which is obviously untrue? Poorly-educated religious conservatives.
Alternatively, I suppose it's possible that some other scientist is sitting on his yacht with his pockets lined with my share of the tax dollars...
jackstraw · 30 July 2009
waynef to Dembski
"You don’t agree? Fine. You sit at my desk for one day and design a plane or a bridge or a spaceship or a chemical plant or a pollution control system and we’ll see."
Great. I already suffer from the "bad guys chasing me" nightmares, and the "I can't stop falling" nightmares.
Now I'm going to get the "Dembski engineered that bridge/plane" nightmares.
I may never sleep again.
SteveF · 30 July 2009
Off topic, but I seem to recall a discussion on comets here at PT. Here's an upcoming paper on Science on this issue, thought I'd mention it:
"Reassessing the Source of Long-Period Comets "
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1172676
RBH · 30 July 2009
What I find interesting is the increasingly bitter tone of Dembski's writing. He is becoming the sad old curmudgeon of the ID movement.
Matt G · 30 July 2009
Freelurker · 30 July 2009
Mike Elzinga · 30 July 2009
Paul Burnett · 30 July 2009
Dan · 30 July 2009
waynef · 30 July 2009
Freelurker · 30 July 2009
waynef · 30 July 2009
Invigilator · 30 July 2009
well that's it then! All we have to do to deal with climate change is abandon all antipollution efforts and set off our remaining nuclear arsenals in regular surface blasts. Problem solved!
raven · 30 July 2009
Ian Musgrave · 30 July 2009
Paul Burnett · 30 July 2009
Freelurker · 30 July 2009
Wheels · 30 July 2009
Carl Sagan was a good astronomer who was at his best when popularizing science, making the processes of the cosmos wonderful to behold and championing the power of clear, rational science while also projecting a deep respect for a humanity that he hoped could reconcile itself with itself.
Dembski is like an anti-Sagan. He's lousy at mathematics and at his worst when demonizing science, painting the processes of the world as so inferior that they need constant meddling to do anything, and causing a divisive rift between scientists and non-scientists while also fomenting ignorance and polemicism.
MPW · 30 July 2009
RBH · 31 July 2009
Amadan · 31 July 2009
Freelurker · 31 July 2009
Looks like I misread waynef's comment of July 30, 2009 3:24 PM as a defense of Dembski. I see now that waynef and I are both mainstream engineers, the kind that won't tolerate IDists misrepresenting our profession.
eric · 31 July 2009
phantomreader42 · 31 July 2009
Erasmus, FCD · 31 July 2009
PAUL BURNETTE. CLIVE,BABY IS WATCHING YOU. CLIVE,BABY WILL NOT TOLERATE YOUR MENTION OF HIS SITE ON OTHER GODLESS HOMO SITES. UNCOMMONDESCENT TOLERATES ALL RESPECTFUL DISSENT EXCEPT FOR THE DISSENT YOU PROFFER ON OTHER WEB PAGES OR ON UNCOMMONDESCENT. UP IS DOWN, NIGHT IS DAY, ID IS SCIENCE.
-DT
Paul Burnett · 31 July 2009
Erasmus, FCD · 31 July 2009
anyone who wishes to explore this topic(Clive,Baby and other UD moderators having personal temper tantrums and hissy fits resulting in the EXPELLING of critics and commentors) any further might find this comment and thread illuminating
http://www.antievolution.org/cgi-bin/ikonboard/ikonboard.cgi?act=SP;f=14;t=5141;p=145912
as you have noted paul the moderation policy at UD is a joke. Barry Arrington has claimed that even PZ Myers would be welcome at UD, but the history of the blog comments documented in gory detail at AtBC demonstrates that BarryA et al are pathetic liars.
Wheels · 31 July 2009
I tried to register to post comments there, but never got my confirmation e-mail.
Could be that I used the same name as I do here.
Paul Burnett · 31 July 2009
gregwrld · 31 July 2009
Mike Elzinga · 31 July 2009
fnxtr · 31 July 2009
Mike Elzinga · 31 July 2009
Ok; I guess Dembski really said it.
MPW · 31 July 2009
Flint · 31 July 2009
raven · 31 July 2009
RBH · 31 July 2009
fnxtr · 1 August 2009
Mike Elzinga · 1 August 2009
John Kwok · 1 August 2009
John Kwok · 1 August 2009
Mike,
Dembski doesn't have to worry. He has dear buddy and Number One Enabler, philosopher Michael Ruse, to lean on the next time the s**t hits the fan.
John
stevaroni · 1 August 2009
John Kwok · 1 August 2009
Rolf · 2 August 2009
veritas36 · 3 August 2009
On a positive note, the global warming denialists will not be happy with Dembski's endorsement. They are oh-so-different from those anti-evolutionists dumb bunnies, please don't put them in the same category with religious cranks and holocaust deniers. Why, the antiAGW crowd believes in true science.
BioBob · 4 August 2009
You should be ashamed of posting that 'temperature' chart. Discredited pseudoscience and provocative presentation as you decry the same from others. The pot calling the kettle black much ??
Try one like this instead:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/library/pics/2000-years-of-global-temperature.jpg
fnxtr · 5 August 2009
Roy apparently also said this:
"I finally became convinced that the theory of creation actually had a much better scientific basis than the theory of evolution, for the creation model was actually better able to explain the physical and biological complexity in the world... Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer."
This QED moment brought to you by Wikipedia.
DS · 5 August 2009
"Science has startled us with its many discoveries and advances, but it has hit a brick wall in its attempt to rid itself of the need for a creator and designer.”
Yea, and that brick wall is between the ears of creationists.
If you start out with the immutable assumption that a creator is required in order to produce complexity and then go on to completely ignore every scientific discovery made in the last two hundred years, then of course you will conclude that science cannot explain complexity. I guess that's what happens when discoveries startle you, you tend to ignore them in favor of your preconceived notions.
fnxtr · 5 August 2009
Creationism isn't better, it's just easier. All you have to do is act like The Who's "Tommy".
Wheels · 5 August 2009
I know I really shouldn't point out Spencer's IDist position whenever someone brings him up in a climate change debate, but I just can't let it go. What more blatant evidence do you need that the person doesn't understand the science they're describing?
Stanton · 5 August 2009
DavidK · 5 August 2009
fnxtr · 5 August 2009
Yeah I don't get that. First Earth was bumped from the centre of the universe, then the Sun was, but it seems moving homo sapiens sapiens from that position takes a lot more energy.
Biobob · 5 August 2009
The point is that neither climate change deniers nor climate change proponents have any monopoly on irrationality and pseudoscience.
Nor does either side refrain from propagandizing it's position and ad hominem attacks.
And, in fact, science tells us nothing about "faith" or the presence or absence of any 'creator'.
IMO, we are still like ants stumbling around merely attempting to understand earth, solar system, galaxy, and universe without an awful lot of success to date. We have a long way to go, and all of us should keep that foremost in mind.
Dave Luckett · 5 August 2009
fnxtr · 5 August 2009
DS · 5 August 2009
Biobob wrote:
"IMO, we are still like ants stumbling around merely attempting to understand earth, solar system, galaxy, and universe without an awful lot of success to date. We have a long way to go, and all of us should keep that foremost in mind."
I agree completely.
However, real scientist are acutely aware of this. They are continually humbled by the unexpected things they discover. And they also know how far we have come in understanding the universe and our place in it by applying the scientific method and having the courage to examine the evidence and follow it where ever it leads. Not bad for ants.
Creationists never discover anything and if we used their approach we would never make any progress whatsoever. Moaning that we don't understand everything will never get you anywhere. Admitting it is one thing, but doing something about it is quite another. Why is it that those who have never discovered anything are always the first to point out that we don't know everything?
Stanton · 5 August 2009
EoRaptor013 · 5 August 2009
Don't know who said it, but there is truth there, and it fits well with this discussion:
"The greatest advances in science begin not with, "Eureka!" but with, "Gee... That's odd."
Actually, does anybody know who originated that quote?
Thanks.
Raging Bee · 6 August 2009
Wow, what a shameless crybaby Dembski turns out to be! And of course, like most con-artists, he knows he can't just walk away from a debate, otherwise all his lies will be freely debunked with no response; so he has to leave himself a get-back-in clause while he's stamping off in a huff and vowing never to return.
I've seen this sort of thing from the more amateurish creo-trolls here: they realize they're losing the argument they started, so they make some excuse and say "This will be my last post, but I'd like to leave you with this unbeatable insight..." Then when their "insight" gets smacked down, they have to come back for one more "last time" parting shot...and another...and another...
Stanton · 6 August 2009
fnxtr · 6 August 2009
Or pick up on a different post where they left off before and pretend their bs was never exposed.
Mike Elzinga · 6 August 2009
DavidK · 6 August 2009
Speaking of bricks between the ears, this news snippet recently appeared:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090806/ap_on_re_eu/eu_switzerland_glacier_prayer
What more can be said?
Dan · 6 August 2009
a lurker · 6 August 2009
BioBob · 7 August 2009
Dave Luckett · 7 August 2009
Nothing is "known", in the sense you're trying to promote - perfectly, absolutely. Nothing ever will be. I don't make a habit of quoting the Apostle Paul, but have a look at 1 Corinthians 13:12, and you'll see that even he knew that much. (Mind you, he was cribbing from the original Plato, and Socratic thought before that.)
But not knowing perfectly doesn't mean that we are ants, or that we don't know anything, or that everything we know is wrong. Science doesn't pretend to absolute knowledge. It only accumulates evidence until conclusions can be stated from it. The evidence about the origin of the Universe is unequivocal, from three different directions. The Universe began with a single event, about thirteen to fourteen billion years ago. Time and space started then.
No, we haven't got a unifying theory of everything. We don't have an ultimate basis for matter or energy, so far as I know, but we've gone a lot further than "nibbling at the edges".
We have no experimental data that directly bears on all Earth. But we can measure climate, and we can measure the anthropogenic inputs, and we can compare them over time, and that is a body of evidence. It's not proof, like a theorem, but it's evidence.
To expect perfect knowledge is to expect to be God - hubris in spades. Ignoring evidence because it's not absolute proof, when by the nature of the problem absolute proof and perfect knowledge is impossible, is the act of a dullard indeed. Or more likely, of somebody with an agenda.
Faith and god are scientific untruths, in a sense. Nothing in science can be accepted on faith, or explained by God.
But it's your inconsistency that is most glaring, and most galling. You dismiss all evidence for anthropogenic climate change, but you also demand that the "spirituality of humanity" be accepted without question, even though it cannot be defined, specified, measured, quantified or shown to exist at all. Straining at gnats and swallowing camels, indeed!
Richard · 7 August 2009
eric · 7 August 2009
fnxtr · 7 August 2009
fnxtr · 7 August 2009
believe
Dan · 7 August 2009
Dan · 7 August 2009
EmaNymton · 11 August 2009
Wow, BioBob....you're rather, er, dumb.