Today's
New York Times has an
article wherein Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney clarifies (somewhat) his position on evolution. Recall that in the last Republican debate only three candidates, none of them top-tier,
raised their hands when asked if they didn't believe in evolution. Romney wasn't one of them. And now he says why:
"I believe that God designed the universe and created the universe," Mr. Romney said in an interview this week. "And I believe evolution is most likely the process he used to create the human body."
This of course is the standard theistic evolutionist response. Boilerplate, banal, and politically safe... but also essentially pro-science. Of course there is room in the details for the devil to hide:
He was asked: Is that intelligent design?
"I'm not exactly sure what is meant by intelligent design," he said. "But I believe God is intelligent and I believe he designed the creation. And I believe he used the process of evolution to create the human body."
Translation: I'm not touching ID with a ten-foot pole.
Romney goes on to say that he believes that evolution should be taught in science class, and that other "theories" belong in religion or philosophy class. Again, this is banal and politically safe, but most importantly, it's correct.
Unfortunately it's almost impossible for the mainstream media to print an article on evolution without
something irritating me. And here it is:
Intelligent design is typically defined as the claim that examination of nature points to the work of an intelligent designer, as opposed to the utterly random, naturalistic processes that are taught as part of evolutionary theory.
Utterly random? When are people going to learn that evolution contains an extremely powerful
deterministic process known as selection? I'm afraid the author got his idea about what evolution is from the IDists.
84 Comments
Warren · 11 May 2007
FWIW, Romney's statements are pretty close to what most Mormons are likely to tell you. The church is pretty clear that a literal six-day creation is out of the question; they tend more toward the "creation-by-evolution" camp.
Flint · 11 May 2007
Steve Reuland · 11 May 2007
Maybe that's what was meant, but it's not even close to what "random" means in the context of evolution. If species changed randomly, they would not have adaptations.
I'm not inclined to think that the author is making a subtle distinction that just so happens to coincide with one of the most persistent and misleading claims made by creationists. I think he just doesn't know any better.
Jedidiah Palosaari · 11 May 2007
I don't think Romney's answers were banal or politically safe at all. Making the claim that God used natural laws and evolution to create everything, including humanity, is anything but safe, and anything but boring, once the theological concepts resulting from the idea are considered.
harold · 11 May 2007
"Intelligent design is typically defined as the claim that examination of nature points to the work of an intelligent designer, as opposed to the utterly random, naturalistic processes that are taught as part of evolutionary theory"
It seems to me that this is a snide attempt at a plug for intelligent design.
ID is NOT "typically defined" as "the claim that examination of nature points to the work of an intelligent designer"! That sure isn't how I define it.
"Utterly random and naturalistic" is clearly intended as a put-down. "Utterly random?" Naturalistic? Not natural - naturalistic. "Taught as"?
Try this -
"ID is typically defined as the claim that certain aspects of biology, such as the bacterial flagellum, had to be created by a magical but unknown designer (variously referred to as God, or an alien, depending on the context), rather than by natural evolution. In contrast, the scientifically accepted theory of evolution holds that natural processes can explain the physical diversity of life, including aspects of it, such as the bacterial flagellum or blood clotting proteins, which ID advocates claim could only be created by magic."
The truth is so much more elegant.
A good friend of mine is married to an NY Times reporter, so I'm going to refrain from generalizations about the quality of American journalists.
harold · 11 May 2007
In fairness, the reporter is accidentally more accurate than intended.
"examination of nature points to an intelligent designer" is, despite its worshipful tone, an accurate paraphrase of the Paley's watch argument.
And that is, of course, one of the two "arguments" for intelligent design. We know that a beehive was "designed" by bees, so therefore an amoeba must have been "designed" by a magical designer. The "complimentary argument" being that things like the bacterial flagellum or the blood clotting proteins have "irreducible complexity" and therefore had to be designed by magic.
harold · 11 May 2007
As for Romney, there are very strong research universities in Utah. Whatever controversies and unusual dogmas some may perceive, the Church of Latter Day Saints is not officially committed to outright science denial, despite being quite tolerant of it in some individual members.
I would certainly vote for a Mormon candidate, if I agreed with her policy stances.
I won't be voting for Romney, but that's because he's a right wing weasel. The fact that he's a Mormon is not relevant to me.
Steve Reuland · 11 May 2007
Steviepinhead · 11 May 2007
Of course, arguably the safest position for Romney to take--assuming he felt free to pick whatever was most politically expedient, and assuming that he needs to accomplish Job # 1 (nabbing the Republican nominatin) before he can even start on Job # 2 (winning the presidency)--would be to take a creationist tack. He could weasel on whether it ought to be taught in schools, etc., but that's probably the core position of the Republican base.
After all, it's worked for the last Republican who went the distance.
(Note, I'm not claiming that all REpubs are anti-evolution creationists...)
But, assuming he's going to come out for evolution at all, then Steve is right that God-worked-through-evolution is safer than there-may-be-no-God. Which nobody was expecting from a staunch Mormon in the first place.
Ed Darrell · 11 May 2007
It almost seems as if some people expect Mormons to be creationists, almost to the point of hoping. I'm sure there are still a few LDS creationists -- there is no LDS doctrine that says one cannot believe that, so long as it doesn't interfere with other parts of the faith -- but it is important to note that Mormons have traditionally been supporters of hard science. "Knowledge is the glory of God" it says somewhere in LDS scripture. When I was at the University of Utah, some of us feared that Brigham Young University was capturing all our best large-view evolutionists, when our department turned more toward molecular and some of the best field scientists headed south to Provo,where they were quite comfortable and very productive. (P.Z.? What was your experience in SLC?)
I am aware of one incident at Brigham Young where a teacher in the department of religion complained that a biology professor was teaching evolution, and charges were brought on religious doctrine grounds that could result in the dismissal of the biology prof. The biologist's defense was that in a great debate on the topic in the 1950s, the ruling group of the church, the Council of the Twelve" had determined that there is nothing in the Bible that rules out evolution, and after serious study and prayer, there was no revelation against evolution, either. My recollection is that the religion prof was dismissed when it was determined he was teaching creationism as official doctrine, which it is not.
There are good and great scientists among the Mormons -- Henry Eyring the great chemist, Alex Oblad, an inventor of catalytic cracking of petroleum, Robert Jarvik of artificial heart fame (he may have left the church), Dinosaur Jim Jensen, the fossil finder who left tons of dinosaurs still in the rock under Cougar Stadium at BYU when he retired, physicist Harvey Fletcher, and his son James Fletcher who twice headed NASA. (My father introduced me to Jensen and the Fletchers, and I had some social contact with James Fletcher over the years; I've met Jarvik and Oblad, and Eyring. All of them are/were outstanding people who were great dinner companions, scientists whom you would find interesting at a science meeting, though not likely to join you in cocktails.)
Romney's sin isn't being Mormon so much as it is being Republican. There is no book on a Mormon war on science, because there is no such thing. Mormons in government are known for their policies, not their religion -- Marriner Eccles, as chair of the Fed, Ezra Benson as Secretary of Agriculture, Stewart Udall as Secretary of Interior, Ted Bell as Secretary of Education, Mike Leavitt as Secretary of HHS, Esther Peterson as feminist and consumer advocate, and others. When it comes to science, with the possible exception of Benson, these guys all came through on the side of science.
Ed Darrell · 11 May 2007
I got distracted posting a short while ago, and I failed to include a mention of Duane E. Jeffery, a zoologist at BYU who is also a member of the board of NCSE. I regret the omission.
http://www.lds-mormon.com/evolutn1.shtml
David B. Benson · 11 May 2007
I point out that I am no relation at all of Ezra Taft Benson's.
Well, I guess I have to be at least 19th cousin...
PaulC · 11 May 2007
Dan Gaston · 11 May 2007
One of the things that irritates me, besides the ignoring of selection as a non-random process is that random, as it applies to evolution is used in the statistical sense and not the common usage that the layman uses. Those are two very very different concepts and I don't think that difference is ever stressed enough. Just one more thing that leads to a gross misunderstanding of evolution by the general public.
Anna Z. · 11 May 2007
Having known and worked with Mormons, Romney's statements are similar to what I would expect. I'm sure he will be criticized by some atheists for his failure to be a hellfire-breathing, pseudoscience-spewing fundamentalist literalist, since apparently that is what believers are "supposed" to be.
I would never vote for Romney, but I'm glad to see him giving a voice to the millions of moderate believers who don't cling to a fourth century version of religion and do not feel a need to.
PaulC · 11 May 2007
Dan Gaston: One of the things that drives me bonkers even more than ignoring selection is ignoring reproduction as a key driver of evolution. E.g., the fact that I have ten fingers on each hand, each with an internal skeleton, and no tentacles to speak of is highly predictable from the fact that my ancestors had such fingers for many generations back. The outcome of each birth looks absolutely nothing like a uniform statistical experiment. Of course, there is some variation, but it is dwarfed by the degree of predictability.
If living systems could not produce more or less faithful copies of genes, you might as well forget about evolution. Beneficial mutations arise only very rarely, and it is the ability to amplify their numbers rapidly over a few generations that makes them relevant.
Actually, there are a lot of physical systems subject to random change; we're bombarded by microscopic and macroscopic particles constantly. I'm tempted to make a similar point about selection, though it would stretch the analogy. But one thing life does that other physical systems do not is to provide a means of replicating complex structures. It almost makes me angry to think that some chucklehead would imagine they could model several billion years of rich ecological interactions with a few statistical formulas a la Dembski.
Robert O'Brien · 11 May 2007
Science Avenger · 11 May 2007
I tell people that evolution is random somewhat like the roll of a die is random: not deterministic, but with limitations of result. Obviously that doesn't cover the whole picture, but it gets them grasping that there is a huge range between "completely deterministic" and "totally random".
John Krehbiel · 11 May 2007
Henry J · 11 May 2007
Re "They get away with it because evolution does have a stochastic component to it,"
Course, so do physics, chemistry, astronomy, geology, meteorology,...
Henry
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 12 May 2007
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 12 May 2007
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 12 May 2007
Richard Wein · 12 May 2007
David Stanton · 12 May 2007
Richard,
The same argument you used above applies to selection as well. Individual stochastic events can always affect the final outcome, but the process of selection itself is deterministic in the long run. That is why we can use equations to predict the eventual outcome of selection. Of course the equations are always an oversimplification of a complex reality, but they are entirely deterministic and have proven to be fairly reliable in the long run.
It is also important to notice that the equations for selection are fundamentally different from the equations used to model genetic drift. Once again, it is possible to make some predictions for the entire population in the long run, but it is not possible to make precise predictions about the fate of any one small subpopulation. This is because drift is fundamentally a stochastic rather than deterministic process. It is also important to keep in mind that drift and selection are not mutually exclusive processes and that both can operate at the same time.
Whenever anyone uses the term "random" with respect to evolution, it is important to get them to define exactly what they mean. This can often be difficult, especially when they have no idea what they mean.
Richard Wein · 12 May 2007
I think what we have here is a failure to communicate! I'm using "deterministic" in the sense used by probability theorists, which would be something like "referring to events that have no random or probabilistic aspects but proceed in a fixed predictable fashion."
David (and perhaps Steve) seem to be using it to mean something like "having some predictable property". It seems that with David's usage, a series of die rolls could be considered a deterministic process, because the long-term average die roll is predictable (in the Law of Large Numbers sense). This is not a usage I've come across before, and it seems very strange to me.
Steve Reuland · 12 May 2007
Steve Reuland · 12 May 2007
PaulC · 12 May 2007
Jettboy · 12 May 2007
Jettboy · 12 May 2007
Richard Wein · 12 May 2007
David Stanton · 12 May 2007
Richard wrote:
"But is there any equivalent law of selection? I don't think there is. I think that any accurate statements which can be made about selection will be probabilistic. They may deal in averages or tendencies, but those will be probabilistic averages or tendencies."
I agree that this is usually the case. I think that selection is a process not a force and that the outcome is not always possible to predict with absolute certainty.
However, as Steve has pointed out, if selection is the only thing that is operating, then the outcome is often very predictable. Indeed, there are many examples where this is the case, such as recessive lethals and strong heterozygote advantage. In many cases the perfectly predictable outcome will eventually be fixation or stable equilibrtium unless other factors are operating.
I do not know if "deterministic" is the opposite of "random" or if "predictable" is equivalent to "deterministic". I do know that "random" doesn't come close to describing the role of selection in evolution.
Dan Gaston · 12 May 2007
PaulC:
Reproduction, and of course the molecular process of Replication that underlies it, is kind of funny in a way. It has enough fidelity that we don't see huge errors every time replication occurs, but it is faulty enough that evolution can occur. That is one of the more interesting things in molecular biology, although not the area I like to work on myself. I lean a little more towards the neutralist camp rather than the selectionist camp, although both acknowledge that beneficial mutations are the rarest of all.
The problem is that the general population really doesn't know very much about statistics (see the armchair statisticians whose only contribution to the critique of a study is correlation does not equal causation!) or the terms that are used. Instead they have the folk-definitions of things like random, probability, chance, etc and these folk-definitions are frequently very different from what they really mean in their proper usage and context. Most people, even some in the sciences who don't work on evolution or a related field (like population genetics), don't really understand is the nature of underlying stochastic processes and how they work in terms of evolution and how the interplay between these stochastic processes coupled with selective forces is a truly powerful mechanism for the production of variation in nature. It is absolutely awe inspiring in my opinion. Then again I chose to work with protein evolution for my masters work and if you want to delve into the nitty gritty there you have to have an appreciation for stochastic processes/events, probability distributions, and the functioning of forces on the molecular level.
Henry J · 12 May 2007
Creationist: "... RANDOM ..."
Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means".
Henry
Julie Stahlhut · 12 May 2007
Robert O'Brien wrote:
During my 7 years or so as a Mormon I encountered more YEC* than "theistic-evolution." Of course, that might have to do with a tendency to keep such beliefs "on the down low."
Indeed, I've met a few people who were either YECs or other flavors of special creationists (with less emphasis on the "YE" part) who attended what we would think of as liberal Protestant churches. And, of course, some of our -- er, favorite "design proponentsists" are Roman Catholics. None of these churches adhere to doctrines of Biblical literalism, and good science is taught in their affiliated schools. But how many rank-and-file church members could explain their own church doctrines as taught to prospective members of the clergy in seminaries -- or even as they are taught to undergraduates at, say, a liberal Methodist or Catholic university?
Lest this sound condescending: How many of us could explain and critique, in detail, the economic platform of the political party for which we voted in the last election?
Richard Wein · 12 May 2007
Well said, Dan.
I think I may have been reading too much into Steve's and Dave's comments. Perhaps their thinking is simply something like this: selection is not equiprobable; therefore it's not random (in the folk sense); deterministic is the opposite of random; therefore selection is deterministic.
David Stanton · 12 May 2007
Dan wrote:
"Most people, even some in the sciences who don't work on evolution or a related field (like population genetics), don't really understand is the nature of underlying stochastic processes and how they work in terms of evolution and how the interplay between these stochastic processes coupled with selective forces is a truly powerful mechanism for the production of variation in nature. It is absolutely awe inspiring in my opinion."
Yes, well said. I agree with Richard.
James McGrath · 12 May 2007
The key point is that outspoken individuals making the case that faith and evolution are not at odds is key to ending the religious opposition to the teaching of evolution. For that reason I view this as a good thing.
http://blue.butler.edu/~jfmcgrat/blog/
Dan Gaston · 12 May 2007
James MacGrath: I agree. While I don't personally agree with the Theistic Evolution most people who hold it tend to take (which occasionally comes pretty close to ID in all but name) at least it is an attempt by the faithful to reconcile their faith with the world around them. They let reason, logic, and scientific evidence speak for itself and simply adapt their faith accordingly. I have no beef with that and commend them for not being suckered in by the fundamentalist viewpoint that is hijacking their religious beliefs.
Science Avenger · 12 May 2007
Interesting Anti-atheist. Perhaps you should share the results of your healthy imagination on a creative writing site. I suspect the people there will be a lot more enthused about them than people on a science site are going to be.
Flint · 13 May 2007
I think when the article says evolution is "utterly random" he's trying to say that humans (and any other organisms) are by no means necessary or predictable results of the evolutionary process. As Gould says, if you rerun the experiment a zillion times, you will never generate the same organism twice. The process of evolution is much too dependent on contingencies over which selection has no influence. Selection can only operate on variation made available to it, and that variation is inherently unpredictable and random.
In other words, we simply circle back to intent. Theistic evolutionists essentially believe that this variation isn't random; it's being *deliberately introduced* by their god, operating behind the scenes. Evolution is their god's tool to produce humans, and mutations were deliberately and intentionally manipulated for that purpose. Non-theistic people, at least as I read it, regard humans (and all other creatures) as a purely contingent accidental result of a process with a large random component.
I don't have such a problem with the article, but I'd have written about an undirected and unpredictable process, rather than a random process.
Thanatos · 13 May 2007
guys english is not my native tongue
but the word determinism is common in european languages (homonym from greek is aetiocracy) and in science vocabulary for ages.
crudely
determinism = The (specific) cause has the (specific) effect
causality = A (every) cause has An effect and vice versa
determinism is causal,causality is not obligatory to be deterministic
a analogy for determinism is a 1-1 function while causality is not obligatory 1-1.
qm is non-deterministic and it is inherently random though not fully since it is causal.
chaos theory is deterministic but its randomness is not inherent like qm's.
determinism is not an antonym of randomness
full-total randomness (whatever that is) means non causal,but nothing as such is believed to exist in the physical world since all physical laws are causal.
(at the present of course but it's kind of difficult to imagine how could total randomness exist even in a future non-temporal theory since for change to happen
there has to be some kind of abstract variable -more abstract "time"- with respect to which ,change takes place)
Torbjörn you're a physicist I believe,did you use different than standard terminology
for biologists to understand?
wÒÓ† · 13 May 2007
Someone's talking smack about you guys.
David Stanton · 13 May 2007
Selection is causal. The cause is a suboptimal phenotype produced by a particular genotype. So for example, with strong heterozygote advantage an equilibrium allele frequency will be achieved in a predictable number of generations and will be globally stable. If the selection coefficients are known, one can predict the number of generations required to achieve equilibrium and the allele frequencies at equilibrium quite precisely. This is the sense in which selection is deterministic.
However, I think Flint is absolutely correct. The real issue here is the source of genetic variation. Various posters on this blog have claimed that the variation is not random but is produced by some intelligence with foresight and planning for some predetermined goal. I think that it is important to point out the experimental evidence that shows that mutations are random with respect to the needs of the organism. It think it is important to point out that there is no known natural mechanism by which favorable variation can be produced preferentially. I think that it is important to demand evidence when claims of intelligence and foresight are invoked. In the absence of such evidence no one should feel constrained by such a belief.
Dan Gaston · 13 May 2007
David Stanton:
Of course those equations from population genetics only work on an ideal population. Normally there isn't a way for us to work out all of the necessary information to do that, and of course selective pressures can change over the generations. But yea in an ideal situation with all of the data the pop gen equations would give us some pretty incredible predictive power. Of course over the intervening time from when the prediction is made and when the result should occur chances are the selective pressures have shifted and the prediction may have become meaningless.
Thanatos · 13 May 2007
David Stanton · 13 May 2007
Dan,
Of course you are absolutely right. In that sense selection is not deterministic in that the final outcome cannot always be predicted with certainty in the real world. That is why there is always an element of chance in evolution, as you pointed out earlier.
However, if only selection is being considered, if nothing else is affecting allele frequencies, if the population size is relatively constant and mating is relatively random, if the selection coefficients don't change significantly, then accurate predictions can be made. Other things may occur, such as drift, etc. but selection, in and of itself, is still a deterministic process. This scenario may not be realistic, especially given the number of generations required for equilibrium in some cases, but this is essentially how modeling works. The equations only give meaningful results if the assumptions are met. In many cases they do not leave much doubt as to the eventual outcome if the assumptions are met.
Once again, we could argue over the meaning of "deterministic" all day. But in the end, selection is one of the driving forces of evolution and it is not "random" by any meaningful definition. By this I do not mean to imply that there is anything "intelligent" or "purposeful" in the process in the sense of moving towards a predetermined goal. If the environment changes the selection coefficients may change and the outcome may change. That doesn't make it random, even if it is sometimes difficult to make predictions.
Ken Baggaley · 13 May 2007
Actually, I'm fine with everything Romney said (as quoted in this post). I'm not a theist, but at least what he said poses no threat to real science education (evidence, prediction, peer-review, falsifiable, etc).
Individuals are free to believe what they wish - but science should be taught using scientific principles.
Romney still isn't likely to get my vote, however (other, off-topic issues).
Moses · 13 May 2007
harold · 13 May 2007
Anti-Atheists -
Good work using the same name for two posts in a row (I think).
As a non-atheist, I condemn the bigotry it implies against my atheist fellow citizens, and deny your irrational delusion that "atheists" are somehow plotting against you. I conjecture that tormenting religious doubts of your own may motivate you.
BUT - does your latest post mean that you do NOT have a problem with evolution? That you accept "theistic evolution"? If so, one more reason to take your comments to a site that deal with atheism directly.
Glen Davidson · 13 May 2007
wÒÓ† · 13 May 2007
Keith Douglas · 13 May 2007
I also wish people would stop mentioning using philosophy classes as an "intellectual dumping ground". (Not to mention that "theistic evolution" is a very strange position, but that's another story...)
Thanatos · 13 May 2007
PoxyHowzes · 13 May 2007
If I were a creationist, I would be taking great comfort from this thread, in which all you "Darwinists" seem to be proving that you don't know what "random" means to or in "Darwinian" theory and thus cannot, with honest logic or honest science, disprove or even counter my creationist use of the word.
And don't try to cover your confusion by substituting the word "stochastic." My Merriam-Webster "New COLLEGIATE Dictionary" (emphasis mine) defines stochastic as "1. RANDOM...." (Emphasis theirs, and signifying the essential synonymy of stochastic and random.) (So that you don't accuse me of definition-mining, the other meaning of "stochastic" for Merriam-Webster's college students is "2. Involving chance or probability: PROBABABILISTIC..." the emphasis again theirs and again signifying essential synonymy with a word that means that certainty is impossible.)
Certainty, of course, is not a problem to me, a creationist!
So now, as both a creationist and a college student, I'm concluding, from reading this thread and my standard dictionary, that you "Darwinists" haven't a clue as to what your "theory" means, or predicts, or can predict. Indeed, in previous posts, it was asserted that there is no "law" of selection. And another post (#175276) finds it requisite to deny Darwin's sexual selection ("if...mating is relatively random...") as one of a series of conditions necessary so that "then [only then] accurate predictions can be made."
Yup. As a creationist, dictionary-reading college student, I predict that my beliefs are safe: I'll graduate, go through medical school, and become a prominent neurosurgeon during the Romney administration. And you'll find me here arguing against the relevance of "Darwinism" to neurosurgery, and against life's "random" origins, while you "Darwinists" are still arguing the "pathetic details" of what the word means.
David Stanton · 13 May 2007
PoxyHowzes wrote:
"And another post (#175276) finds it requisite to deny Darwin's sexual selection ("if...mating is relatively random...") as one of a series of conditions necessary so that "then [only then] accurate predictions can be made."
Yup. As a creationist, dictionary-reading college student, I predict that my beliefs are safe"
How could you possibly interpret my comment as denying sexual selection? To clarify, if sexual selection is operating in opposition to natural selection, then it will be impossible to make accurate predictions if sexual selection is ignored. There is a vast literature on balancing selection forces. Of course all of the words are in the dictionary, just not in the right order.
As for your prediction, I absolutely agree. Your beliefs are undoubtedly safe.
Cedric Katesby · 14 May 2007
wÒÓ†,
Thanks for the link to http://oneblogaday.com/web/2007/04/15/pharyngula
My personal favorite was
"wÒÓ†Says:
I'd really hoped to engage you in a meaningul dialog, Mr. Davison, but it appears that you're dangerously close to being just another crank with a dialup connection.
With regard to this "I love it so" business... you may not be aware that in some south Tibetan dialects there's a phrase that sounds to the Western ear like "ah laffet show."
It can be broadly translated as "My vagina hurts."
Ah laffet so. Priceless. :) :) :)
KL · 14 May 2007
Dear "PoxyHowzes"
Issues with pre-existing English vocabulary, and debating the various choices of words to explain the evidence collected does not demonstrate problems with the theory. Language is representative. Any complex idea must be expressed in many ways, including using models, analogies and examples. Economics, political science, biology, particle physics all use these methods to commmunicate ideas whose complexities exceed the language they have. Indeed, that is how new words come to be, as it becomes clear that existing vocabulary cannot adequately represent the ideas being explained.
Before you reject evolutionary theory on the basis of dictionary definitions, perhaps you need to examine the evidence. Unfortunately, the evidence is VAST and complicated; people spend their entire lives studying the topic. A little humility is appropriate in commenting about a subject in which you haven't logged enough mileage.
Paul Flocken · 14 May 2007
Dan Gaston · 14 May 2007
David Stanton:I agree, and I don't think we were disagreeing anyway. Of course Drift is always at work, while selection may or may not be, but the pop gen equations all factor in drift and then tack on selection as needed as a scaling factor.
It's interesting to look at some of the beneficial alleles that haven't been fixed in any population and probably won't even when selected for because the forces of drift are just too strong when the initial allele frequency is low. Pop Gen isn't my field of course but I find it very interesting.
PoxyHowzes · 14 May 2007
David Stanton:
Regardless of whether "Alphabetical Order" is the right organizing algorithm for a dictionary, it certainly doesn't help when your attempt "to clarify" seems to say just the opposite of what you originally said.
In #175276, you listed four assumptions, requisites, axioms, whatever as requirements for making accurate predictions. I read the following: If only selection is considered,...if mating is relatively random,...then accurate predictions can be made as meaning that sexual selection cannot be considered if one wants accuracy in one's predictions. (I did not take this as an overall denial by you of sexual selection.)
Now you come along in #175276 with a "clarification" that says that accurate predictions are impossible unless sexual selection is taken into account. I don't see how any order of words in the dictionary could help me resolve this discrepancy.
I have no doubt that there is vast literature. My doubt (as a putative creationist) is that in a thread now more than 60 posts long the "Darwinists" can express to a reasonably intelligent person (a dictionary-reading college student) why the Creationist application of the term "random" is wrong, and what the "correct" use of that word might be for a "Darwinist."
It hasn't happened yet.
David Stanton · 14 May 2007
PoxyHowzes,
Apparently I have been too obtuse. Please allow me to clarify further.
Your argument appears to go something like this: if we are unaware of the jet stream it is impossible to make accurate predictions about the weather, therefore God-did-it. My point was that if we do not take account of the jet stream then our predictions will not be accurate. That doesn't mean that meteorology is worthless. It means that real world systems are complex and difficult to model accurately.
In my post I clearly stated that I was referring to selection and selection only in the absence of any other complicating factors. I clearly stated that other factors could exist and that they must be taken into account in order to make accurate predictions. It is indeed possible to make accurate predictions if the effects of natural selection and sexual selection are considered together. As Dan pointed out, it is also necessary to account for genetic drift as well. This simply requires more than one equation. However, even if no equation ever gave a perfect result, the default position of God-did-it would still be just as inappropriate as a scientific explanation as it was in meterology before the jet stream was discovered.
The word "random" in regards to evolution is properly used to refer to the processes generating genetic variation such as mutations which occur randomly with respect to the needs of the organism. It is not appropriate to assign a metaphysical meaning to the term and apply it to the process of selection.
As far as the dictionary goes, my point was that if you rely on the dictioaary to resolve issues in biology you will fail miserably. As KL pointed out, you need to spend hours every day reading the literature and doing experiments for yourself in order to understand modern evolutionary theory. The answers to these questions are not in the dictionary. Is that clear enough now?
By the way, I'm sure everyone noticed that you started out "If I were a creationist . . . " moved on to "I a creationist" then later became a "putative creationist". Having a little trouble making up our mind are we?
Dan Gaston · 14 May 2007
Paul Flocken · 14 May 2007
Poxy,
To provide a concrete example. When rolling a pair of (honest)dice the result is random. Yet no matter how many, many times I roll a pair of dice in a game of craps I will never, ever pull a straight flush from them. It is simply impossible. This despite the fact that the dice are completely random. Likewise, no matter how random the environmental and internal impacts on DNA replication in oogenesis and spermatogenesis and no matter how random the choice of which sperm combines with which egg and no matter how random the impacts are to development, no child will ever be born that has a whale flipper in the place of a leg or a sparrow's wing in the place of an arm or kiwi fruit in place of eyes or carrots for hair. No sea turtle will ever give birth to a racoon. Being random does not mean that anything is possible. Only that, within the constraints of possibility, from all that is possible, what actually comes to pass is unpredictable (and uncorrelated with environmental selection pressures).
Sincerely,
Paul
(Improvements to or demonstrations of imprecision in my argument are solicited.)
GuyeFaux · 14 May 2007
PoxyHowzes · 14 May 2007
Dan Gaston: Thank you. Your succinct argument/explanation gives me much to go on as a supposed creationist/college student with dictionary. I may not understand your distinctions fully, but you give me confidence that there is something out there to understand. Perhaps I can guide my college career in such a way as to avoid becoming a neurosurgeon who believes that evolution is bunk. Even if I want to spend my life arguing with "evilutinists" like you, I know that we lack a common definition of a common word. To prepare myself for such argumentation, you've shown me that I need a broader/different understanding of how you think. At the very least, you've alerted me that I may need to consult texts other than the Christian bible in order to engage you in discussion.
Dave Stanton: Thank you, too. Actually, in my posts here in this thread, I never (had to) get to the "Goddidit" conclusion or default. I (the supposed creationist) was merely pointing out that previous posters were all too eager to denigrate/ belittle/ dismiss my use of the word "random" without telling me why your side thinks I was/am wrong.
{OT: I think that the "jet-stream" analogy is significantly flawed (as an analogy). Folks who didn't think "goddidit" were making weather forecasts well before they knew about the jet stream. And simple knowledge that there is such a thing as a jet stream doesn't help meteorology or weather forecasts until we can model the jet stream with some degree of accuracy better than the accuracy of [weather forecasts without the jet stream model/component]. So far as I know, the thing(s) Darwin called "variation" cannot yet be modeled well enough to predict the next variation(s).}
In case it is not clear, I have been making a forensic argument (you could look it up in the dictionary!). "If I were" is a subjective statement in the American language, meaning, roughly, "I'm not, but I'm playing the role." "I a creationist" is intended to remind you that I'm still playing the role, something that better punctuation might help me convey better. "Putative Creationist" means (I'm looking at the dictionary again!) "supposed creationist," again meaning that you should answer me as if I really were one, whether I am or not. One might say that I was/am playing "Devil's Advocate."
PoxyHowzes · 14 May 2007
Paul Flocken You've gone way too far and way too OT, IMO. I, the role-playing creationist, would argue something like: life on earth is observed to be too complex to have arisen from random events. To someone who did not raise his hand when asked "who does not believe in evolution?" the creationist's use of the word "random" is one issue among other issues. (E.g., "observed.")
Your mere assertion that there cannot ever be a vegetarian Medusa (carrots for hair) is, IMO of no greater weight or value than my (the putative creationist's) mere assertion that my ancestors were not monkeys. Neither statement adduces any observational or experimental evidence, and so both are vacuous. All vacua are equal, by definition.
The Ghost of Paley · 14 May 2007
Only experts pay attention to the details. Romney probably defined "random" in the sense Flint intended (with no intent or purpose), and didn't give too much thought beyond that. The vast majority of people on both sides of the evolution divide don't think about the theory very often, and their comments reflect their indifference.
Thanatos · 14 May 2007
Thanatos · 14 May 2007
wÒÓâ€
I bow before your perseverance and endurance!
honestly
I tried and tried ang finally read till #651 (without commenting)
but now I feel, I'll really be needing a period of detoxication,cleansing,catharsis,total absence from
BS of whatever kind for the next hmmm 10 years.
I guess John A. Davison was a regular here before I started to pass by.(thank God!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
next to,compared to John A. Davison realpc,carol clouser and some others are intellectual Giants.
I'm starting to appreciate them. :-)
joking of course
Thanatos · 14 May 2007
PoxyHowzes sorry for being harsh and crude but
you made no sense
and anyway having just finished reading
this
I really can't stand nonsense and I surely can't be civil...
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 14 May 2007
Science Avenger · 14 May 2007
Moses · 14 May 2007
john · 15 May 2007
You might find what you're looking for here...
http://www.biblelife.org/evolution.htm
Science Avenger · 15 May 2007
Richard Wein · 15 May 2007
Richard Simons · 15 May 2007
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 15 May 2007
David B. Benson · 15 May 2007
Richard Wein --- The laws of thermodynamics (correctly stated) appear to be certain. In no other part of physics can the same be said.
The laws of biological evolution (correctly stated) appear to be essentially certain...
Thanatos · 15 May 2007
David Stanton · 15 May 2007
"The sperm are created in the male on a daily basis. This short time between the creation of the sperm and conception within the female precludes any possibility that the male can be a part of the evolutionary theory."
Tennis balls are produced in factories on a daily basis. The short time between the production of a tennis ball and a tennis tournament precludes the possibility that tennis balls can be used in tennis tournaments.
Well, it makes as much sense as the quote anyway.
miranda · 25 July 2007
Panda's are Cool!!!!!