It really does matter if it's right.
I just read, for the second time, an article by Doug Kern that's available at Tech Central Station. After my blood pressure came back down a bit, the article got me to thinking. The tone of the piece is annoying and condescending, and there is far more in it that is wrong than is right, but it illustrates a number of the political problems that we face all too well.
The title of the article is, "Why Intelligent Design is Going to Win." The thesis statement is short and simple: "Intelligent Design theory is destined to supplant Darwinism as the primary scientific explanation for the origin of human life. ID will be taught in public schools as a matter of course."
Read more (at The Questionable Authority)
57 Comments
kay · 10 October 2005
That ID would win by evolutionary pressure would be delightful irony... or not so delightful, but still.
DrFrank · 10 October 2005
ID will win because it can be reconciled with any advance that takes place in biology, whereas Darwinism cannot yield even an inch of ground to ID.
So you've discovered the missing link? Proven that viruses distribute super-complex DNA proteins? Shown that fractals can produce evolution-friendly three-dimensional shapes? It doesn't matter. To the ID mind, you're just pushing the question further down the road. How was the missing link designed? What is the origin of the viruses? Who designed the fractals? ID has already made its peace with natural selection and the irrefutable aspects of Darwinism. By contrast, Darwinism cannot accept even the slightest possibility that it has failed to explain any significant dimension of evolution. It must dogmatically insist that it will resolve all of its ambiguities and shortcomings -- even the ones that have lingered since the beginning of Darwinism. The entire edifice of Darwinian theory comes crashing down with even a single credible demonstration of design in any living thing. Can science really plug a finger into every hole in the Darwinian dyke for the next fifty years?
Well done, you've just shown why ID is completely non-falsifiable and worthless. Anything fits your ID hypothesis in a post-hoc fashion, yet it can be used to predict nothing. The statement `Darwinism cannot yield an inch of ground to ID' rings oddly true, though, as research slowly fills those gaps that ID dwells within, and ID can never take any of it back.
This is how losers act just before they lose: arrogant, self-satisfied, too important to be bothered with substantive refutation, and disdainful of their own faults
Too important to be bothered with substantive refutation?! Douggy, you're a liar. That's not an insult, that's just plain fact. Either that, or you must be a p*ss poor lawyer with research skills that non-existent.
a maine yankee · 10 October 2005
ID may "win" (everyone else loses) the same way the "work" of Trofim Denisovich Lysenko "won" in the now defunct Soviet Union---by government mandate!
The United States has lost its world educational leadership already. We are now ranked seventh, tied with Belgium (no offense aginst the "Belgics?")! Georgia's most recent claim to academic excellence touts its tie with South Carolina for last place in SAT averages. (It's not clear if this is Georgia's advance or South Carolina's decline.) If we hope to have a secure future for our children and nation, we cannot return to the world of giant turtles carrying the world on its back.
Perhaps it is the end of the American Dream. Perhaps it is karma. I sincerely hope not, but evolution will continue to select for fitness.
Sorry for the pessimism. Been living deep in a red state too long. It gets to a person.
AV · 10 October 2005
Lurker · 10 October 2005
Two words: pyrrhic victory
An FYI for Kern: It won't be the first time that teleological thinking has "won" the day, only to immediately lose in a decisive manner. Teleological thinking has had nearly 2500 years since Aristotle to improve its evidential base. Can anyone seriously believe that, despite all the of the ardent defenders of teleology throughout the ages, ID has been waiting all this time for a couple of Creationists to come up with a sound theory? Right...
GT(N)T · 10 October 2005
"May you live in interesting times."
A curse.
Flint · 10 October 2005
Kern sees this as a genuine political battle, between purely political adversaries. If this were the case, then he'd be on the right track, since he is presenting an argument not really designed to address issues, be coherent, make sense, or pay the slightest attention to facts. He's presenting an argument intended to boost votes, and crafted to appeal to anyone sympathetic to the religious cause but perhaps confused about the political controversy the religioso have ginned up.
I think it's important to recognize that in genuine political battles, there is no right or wrong answer; the battle is by definition between vested interests, each side trying to protect and/or increase its interest at the expense of the others. Science and scientists have always been a mystery and an aggravation to purely political actors; they are bafflingly unpredictable. Politicans can't tell which side they'll take, they flip-flop around on the issues, they will take sides clearly against their vested interests on the basis of facts! Any politician knows deep in his bones that facts exist to serve political ends. As such, they should be created as needed. To predict scientists, politicians would have to know not only what the facts ARE, but what they MEAN. Why would anyone in their right mind even bother with such an irrelevant exercise?
The story is told (by Steven Leavitt) of a friend who planned to sell his house and buy another one. His agent was pushing him to buy a property at some price, because in the booming housing market he'd better act quickly. But when his friend said he was planning to sell his old house himself, his agent argued against it on the grounds that the tanking housing market required a professional! His agent was political: the housing market was "in fact" doing whatever the agent's bests interests called for.
Kern is doing this same thing. He is *promoting* a cause he favors for reasons unrelated to any facts anywhere. The notion of actually referring to a real fact probably never crossed his mind while he wrote the article. Another story I read tells of a robber baron who called in his lawyer and demanded a legal way to do something. His lawyer said "but sir, that's illegal!" And the robber baron said "That's not what I asked." In politics, you don't act based on the rules, you "find" the rules necessary to support your actions. Law works identically. I guarantee that a creationist judge will have absolutely no problem discovering that the law supports teaching creationism in schools, and will be able to deploy countless cases as precedent (if looked at in the right way), as part of a closely argued and entirely logical opinion.
And this is the human condition. Hook the emotions, and the intellect will follow meekly and obediently. Every time.
Reed A. Cartwright · 10 October 2005
Frank J · 10 October 2005
Just for fun I did an edit/find on the Kern article. Approximate word count:
Darwinism: 7
Darwinist(s): 3 (including "Darwinist catechism", whatever the heck that is)
pro-Darwin: 2
Charles Darwin: 0
Evolution: 2 (including "evolution-friendly")
Evolutionary biology: 0
Abiogenesis: 0
Common Descent (or Ancestry): 0
Missing link: 2
Is Kern scammed or a scammer? You decide. If you're unsure, note how he baits-and-switches the two senses of ID. That may help. But it's a safe bet that "honest, educated, and open-minded" is not an option.
Adam · 10 October 2005
The article is wrong on so many things, but it's right about one: most people on the pro-science side act like losers.
This is a political battle, not a scientific one, but many pro-science advocates are simply politically tone deaf. They seem more interested in smugly asserting that their right and making their opponents look foolish rather than actually winning over red state types. That is precisely the way to lose a political fight.
Russell · 10 October 2005
Bayesian Bouffant, FCD · 10 October 2005
Russell · 10 October 2005
Fernmonkey · 10 October 2005
Flint · 10 October 2005
Sigh. As usual, we have a bunch of scientist types picking away at the factual accuracy of Kern's article. Russell doesn't seem to understand that Kern isn't ignorant at all about what's important to Kern - and DNA ain't it. But science really can't fight this battle on emotional grounds and hope to accomplish anything. That would be as dishonest and doomed to failure as ID fighting on the grounds of scientific accuracy. It's not that scientists are politically tone deaf, it's that they realize that they MUST dance with what brung them. And what brung them is meticulous attention to detail and an unfailing willingness to go where evidence leads even if they don't like it.
This approach is guaranteed to be a mystery to nearly everyone outside the field of science, and where some of the evidence leads is guaranteed to alienate people whose interests lie in needing it to lead elsewhere. Science shouldn't fantasize about winning at the voting booth, that's the wrong battle. Politicians on the whole are not stupid; they recognize (a) that scientific research works, and is really the only hope of making meaningful progress; and (b) their voters don't understand how this works, and never will. So intelligent politicians make noises appealing to their voters, but recognize the power and proper role of science. The danger is dumb politicians in high places. And even that is generally temporary.
To Russell, Kern is spreading the gospel of ignorance. To Kern, Russell is opposing God. And Russell can argue forever that there's no such conflict, but Kern and his target audience know better. Russell is saying to them "God might have actually MEANT to make your ancestors into monkeys, you can't know, so there's no conflict." And they think "uh huh, riiiight! Dumbass."
Adam Ierymenko · 10 October 2005
I always wonder if Dembski is the reincarnation of Lysenko.
While Lysenko's "theories" led in part to the utter failure of Soviet agriculture, I can see how Dembski's "theories" might lead to America missing out on one of the next major revolutions in science and technology: complexity, synthetic biology, and evolving technology. His bogus ideas seem almost deliberately crafted to blind us to any real understanding of, for example, how information theory really does intersect with biology.
"I think the next century will be the century of complexity."
- Stephen Hawking
louis homer · 10 October 2005
I hope Mr Kern is wrong, but his remarks deserve some thought. I believe he does reflect the public feeling that it would be ok to toss a little ID into class, and those who object are elitist nit-pickers. He is also right that science and technology can be conducted perfectly well with all sorts of religious ideas (including ID) swirling about. The reason is that ironically ID is science proof, and science is ID proof. ID just doesn't matter to science as an intellectual activity. As a social and cultural activity it is another matter. Funding could be affected, faculty compostion controlled. He is also right that there is too much argument by ridicule offered by anti ID people. If one of our points of argument is that ID is intellectually unsound, we should sound intellectually capable when we offer such an argument.
Ed Darrell · 10 October 2005
Doesn't a newspaper have a duty to make at least a cursory check of the facts before publishing an opinion piece?
Shame on the newspaper.
Shame on Kern.
If intelligent design plans to win, why does it need to tell fibs?
Flint · 10 October 2005
JS · 10 October 2005
If you can keep yourself from vomiting long enough to reach the bottom of the "article", you'll find this nice link:
http://www.techcentralstation.com/100705B.html
At least she gets it mostly right.
Funny thing is: I can't seem to find any link from the sound article back to Mister Kern's
Maybe Mister Kern's article is a joke. A bit early out for April Fool's Day, though.
Frank J · 10 October 2005
Pierce R. Butler · 10 October 2005
Russell · 10 October 2005
duh · 10 October 2005
Well, considering that big mouth conservative wankers have been spectacularly wrong in their opinion of every single public issue since Bush gained office, this article is a good sign.
Mona · 10 October 2005
I'm a Virginia Postrel-style, dynamist libertarian. As such, I've had Techcentralstation bookmarked for over a year, and it has usually been a daily read.
Kern's anti-intellectual, populist excrement is only the latest pro-ID diatribe TCS has hosted. Now, it is true, they also publish anti-ID pieces, but in my strong opinion a pro-science and technology blog should not be pandering to anti-science writers. Period. Not even for "balance." (And I would add, even the anti-ID writers there cannot hold a candle to what I have seen at PT, in terms of depth.)
So, I am copying this post to TCS's owner, Jim Glassman, by way of explaining why his blog is now unbookmarked. If Glassman wants to publish libertarian-right authors on the subject of ID, he should invite Paul Gross to opine. Until then, I'm now done with TCS.
CJ O'Brien · 10 October 2005
Steve Bryson · 10 October 2005
Frank J · 10 October 2005
'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 10 October 2005
sanjait · 10 October 2005
"Proven that viruses distribute super-complex DNA proteins?"
I know that lateral transfer of complex "genes" (aka DNA proteins?) has been demonstrated, but I fear that ID will win because we may never achieve a demonstration of "supercomplexity" in the lab. [sc]
sanjait · 10 October 2005
"It may well be that our brains are physically configured in such a way that we can't help but find order and design in the world. Don't look so surprised, evolutionists -- a brain attuned to order and design is a brain more likely to survive. The ability to detect design is essentially the ability to detect patterns, and the ability to detect patterns is the key to most applications of human intelligence. Hammers tend to find nails, screwdrivers tend to find screws, and the human mind tends to find design. Of course, the propensity to see designs doesn't mean that the designs aren't actually there. But the quintessential human perception is one of design -- and, to the extent that perceptions define reality"
A string of unsupported and mostly meaningless assertions to support his claim, bereft of any acknowledgment of empiricism .... this guy is definitely an IDer.
Pierce R. Butler · 10 October 2005
Steve S · 10 October 2005
Alienward · 10 October 2005
Pierce R. Butler · 10 October 2005
Frank J · 11 October 2005
Alienward,
ID has lost the science battle (unlike classic creationism, it didn't even try to fight it), but can win (& is winning if you ask me) the political one. For another prominent example, Astrology has lost the former and won the latter.
Frank J · 11 October 2005
Russell, how could I forget this example?:
Scientific American, in giving its award to PT, did it no favors with: "Devoted to debunking all existing and nascent theories related to the anti-evolution movement..."
There are no theories, existing or nascent, in the anti-evolution movement. And if there were, PT would be defending them, not "devoted to debunking" them. Given the public's misconceptions, both of ID as a "theory" that deserves equal time in science class, and of evolution defenders as "reactionary censors," SA's wording only reinforces the myth.
Fernmonkey · 11 October 2005
'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 11 October 2005
Russell · 11 October 2005
Pierce R. Butler · 11 October 2005
Randy · 11 October 2005
Alienward · 11 October 2005
'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 11 October 2005
'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 11 October 2005
Mona · 11 October 2005
As I had said I would, I contacted TCS to state that the Kern piece is an outrage against science. Their editor thanked me for my feedback, and asked that I check out today's postings by Bob McHenry and Max Borders. Those take issue with the Kern post and are anti-ID.
But that's not good enough. Crap like the Kern article has no place on a supposedly pro-science blog.
Pierce R. Butler · 11 October 2005
Frank J · 12 October 2005
Louis · 12 October 2005
Lenny and others,
The reason that the ID creationism issue so often reverts to a sort of strawman "science vs religion" or "atheists vs theists" type of situation is precisely for a reason that Lenny repeats often, the theistic motivation behind ID creationism keeps slipping out. The theists behind IDC don't want their beliefs secret. It is the IDC theists who keep bringing religion into the picture, not the atheists.
The problem arises from the special case of the "Gish Gallop" favoured by these people, they bring up a swathe of topics, relevant, irrelevant and emotive because this is how they view the issue. Their anti-evolution stance has sod all to do with the science of biology, it is 110% to do with their literalist religion, or their loathing of secular society, or their loathing of permissive society, etc etc etc all based on their RELIGION. I can count secular IDists on the fingers of one hand. Using only my thumb ;-) !
The problem you rightly allude to is that we then confront the religious claims of these people as well as their pseudoscientific claims. The pseudoscience is fair game, and most people will have no problem with that. The religion is also fair game, but most people will have a problem with that. We are socially conditioned to give special tenderness to religious claims (extremely wrongly in my view, but that is irrelevant). Personally, I think it's something that needs to change, BUT for the purposes of the IDC issue, I agree that the "X vs religion" (whatever X is) debate is a distraction, an irrelevance, and one that will not help the scientific and political cause.
There is another aspect to this, we need to get the IDCists to focus on the science. This is the core claim they make, that they are doing science. When this goes to court they have to be shown to be doing no science, thus their claims do not belong in a science class. Whenever their metaphysics, morals or religion comes into the picture, we need to steer them back to the science. They have no legs to stand on there, so, simply on those grounds, they can never win.
Even if they DO win, well I take the long view. They cannot win forever because they deny reality. Reality I am afraid, like it or not, always wins. If the US wishes to reduce itself to a Dark Ages backwater, then the rest of the world will smile and get on with it. After the nuclear holocaust of course......
Arden Chatfield · 12 October 2005
Alienward · 12 October 2005
Hiya'll · 13 October 2005
"Once in power, fascists are not beaten by political maneuvering. They are beaten by bullets.
I hope it doesn't come to that."
I can imagine you PT posters hiding out in the wilderness, machine guns and copies of the constitution ready to go, no doubt organized by Dennet or Scott, trying to reconstruct the wall between church and state, fighting a battle agains a seemingly all powerful theocratic government . It would make a great theme for a sci fi book. Unfourtnately you wouldn't have a hope in real life, if a theocracy came about it would be by popular support, and I've never heard of Guerrila's beating a government with public support on it's side ( that could just be my own ignorance of course)
Has anyone read summaries of the work of radical christian reconstructists? It's really quite terrifying. Here's some of the stuff that would happen in a reconstructionist organized government:
1- Homosexuals would be stoned to death
2- Professing atheists would be stoned to death
3- Non christians would be stoned to death
4- Rape victims would sometimes be stoned to death
5- Women would be kept away from the professional sphere
6- Evolution would be efectively banned
Anyone heard of Calvins Geneva, well imagine transplanting it's rules and thrusting them onto modern secular society.
I am scared.
'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 13 October 2005
shenda · 13 October 2005
From the Rev's post:
"So it's no wonder that the Discovery Institute is reluctant to talk about the funding source for its Intelligent Design campaign."
I caught the tail end of an interview/press conference that the DI gave at the start of the Dover trial. When asked about their Christian donors, they refused to answer and ended the interview/press conference. Unfortunately I cannot recall which network this was on.
Pierce R. Butler · 13 October 2005
Frank J · 15 October 2005
sir_toejam · 18 October 2005