Plaque--evidence for Design!

Posted 22 February 2005 by

↗ The current version of this post is on the live site: https://pandasthumb.org/archives/2005/02/plaqueevidence.html

Every now and then, I check in over at The Institute for Genomic Research (TIGR) to see what new projects they’re up to, as well as to see if they’ve released a particular genome sequence I’m waiting on. Yesterday I noticed this project:

Innovative Metagenomics Strategy Used To Study Oral Microbes

Rockville, MD - The mouth is awash in microbes, but scientists so far have merely scratched the surface in identifying and studying the hundreds of bacteria that live in biofilm communities that stick to the teeth and gums.

In an innovative new project that could help improve the detection and treatment of oral diseases, scientists are now using a metagenomics strategy to analyze the complex and difficult-to-study community of microbes in the oral cavity.

***

In recent years, molecular methods have indicated that there are well over 400 species of bacteria in the oral cavity. But, so far, only about 150 of those species have been cultured in laboratories and given scientific names. Using a metagenomics sequencing strategy, TIGR scientists will be able to identify bits and pieces of the DNA of many of those oral microbes that so far have not been grown in labs and studied.

Now, I know that there are an insane amount of microbes in the mouth, but 400 species? Holy cow.

158 Comments

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

While the sheer number of different organisms a biofilm may contain makes it a challenge to study, I personally relish that challenge, and would much rather tackle it than throw my hands in the air and say it's "too complex" to have come about naturally.

— Tara Smith
This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset. Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia. There are many serious complaints that can be lodged against design arguments - this isn't one of them.

PvM · 22 February 2005

Let's differentiate between religious faith not interfering with science and ID arguing from an argument from ignorance. ID does not provide any scientifically relevant hypothesis that outlines biologically complex systems, how they came about, when, where, etc.

Russell · 22 February 2005

This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset. Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia. There are many serious complaints that can be lodged against design arguments - this isn't one of them.

This seems a bit simplistic. Had western civilization not been dominated by the Cosmic Watchmaker mindset, who's to say we wouldn't have had 10 Newton-like geniuses?

It seems to me it IS valid to ask how Behe-like defeatism ("couldn't have happened naturally - had to be the work of something beyond human understanding") could fail to dampen one's enthusiasm for asking questions like "How could this have come to be?"

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

Let's differentiate between religious faith not interfering with science and ID arguing from an argument from ignorance.

— PvM
Let's also differentiate between an investigation of biological systems and an investigation of their origins. The implication of Tara Smith's comment was that a belief in a designer has adverse effects on the scientist's desire to investigate biological systems per se: "Why should I study nature? I believe it was designed."

ID does not provide any scientifically relevant hypothesis that outlines biologically complex systems, how they came about, when, where, etc.

Why is the hypothesis of a designer not scientifically relevant? The biological phenomena are consistent with the hypothesis of a designer. There are predictions that follow from such a hypothesis, e.g., similarities in structure (cf. similarities between different paintings and sculptures of the same artist). What kinds of explanation (as oppossed to particular explanations) can Darwinism supply that design theory cannot?

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

This seems a bit simplistic. Had western civilization not been dominated by the Cosmic Watchmaker mindset, who's to say we wouldn't have had 10 Newton-like geniuses?

— Russell
Who is to say? Who's to say we wouldn't have had any? I can only look at what in fact occurred: modern science was constructed by men who believed that nature owes its structure to a divine being.

Paul Orwin · 22 February 2005

Aah, nothing like talk of oral biofilms to get everyone to brush their teeth a lot! That is a great schematic, I'll have to er, use it, for my biofilm lecture. In the second week of micro lab, we have the students scrape the base of their teeth, and look at it under the darkfield 'scope to see Treponema, They usually can find some...even if they brush a lot!

Russell · 22 February 2005

Michael Finley:

Who is to say? Who's to say we wouldn't have had any?

No argument from me there. It's just that this:

Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia.

is false.

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

Russell:

How is it false? If belief in a designer thwarts scientific inquiry, and, e.g., Newton believed in a designer, wouldn't it follow that Newton's scientific inquiry would have been thwarted?

Doesn't the fact that Newton had the drive to write Principia provide a counter-example to the above antecedent?

Grey Wolf · 22 February 2005

Michael Finley said:

What kinds of explanation (as oppossed to particular explanations) can Darwinism supply that design theory cannot?

All kinds of explanaitions except the universal blanket "he wanted it so" which is the empty explanation intelligent design theory can give. For example: "Why is the sky blue?" "The Designer wanted it so" "Why do so many species exist?" "The designer wanted it so" etc. ID is an empty theory that explains everything with that one answer and, by extension doesn't explain anything, because if the sky happened to be green or we happened to be the only species in the planet, they would still be valid answers. In short, ID has only one explanaition which fits every possible question imaginable. Thus, it is useless. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf

Tara Smith · 22 February 2005

Let's also differentiate between an investigation of biological systems and an investigation of their origins.

— Michael Finley
I don't see much difference there, frankly. The issue is complex systems, and how they could have come to be. A flagellum, for example, is assembled in an analogous manner to a biofilm. Instead of different species of bacteria, it's different proteins that build on each other, with the final product being quite a bit more than the sum of its parts.

The implication of Tara Smith's comment was that a belief in a designer has adverse effects on the scientist's desire to investigate biological systems per se: "Why should I study nature? I believe it was designed."

Not necessarily on a scientist's desire to study them, though it could affect that as well. However, I do indeed think it has an effect on non-scientists. I've asked this many times and never gotten an answer from a creationist/IDist--if we assume something is "designed," and that this designer can just jump in and poke around with stuff willy-nilly, why bother investigating at all? I see this as a fundamental difference between Newton and many early Christian scientists, who sought to further understand God by understanding his creation, and modern-day "intelligent design." ID claims that such "designs" could not have happened without interference--as such, why bother investigating them at all, if they're too hopelessly complex for we mere mortals to understand?

How is it false? If belief in a designer thwarts scientific inquiry, and, e.g., Newton believed in a designer, wouldn't it follow that Newton's scientific inquiry would have been thwarted?

Depends on what their belief is that the "designer" actually did, as I said above. Clearly many people can, and do, believe in a designer who set in motion the wheels of the universe, so to speak, but didn't intervene at every little step along the way.

frank schmidt · 22 February 2005

Michael, your statement

Doesn't the fact that Newton had the drive to write Principia provide a counter-example to the above antecedent?

brings up an old saw that we use in intro science courses: If you were in a burning building and could save only two of the following, which would you allow to be lost: A painting by Picasso, a symphony by Mozart, or the Principia Mathematica? The answer is easy; for all his genius, the work of Newton would be most expendable, because the laws of mechanics would be independently discovered. After all, like the theories of biological evolution, they are founded on data.

Russell · 22 February 2005

See, that's where my "simplistic" description comes in. Does "thwart" mean "to absolutely prevent" or does it mean "inhibit"? Clearly the sense in Ms. Smith's post was "inhibit" - so that's what I'm going with. The fact that there was an Isaac Newton does not prove that those other 9 potential Newtons were not discouraged by the design paradigm. I'm not saying they were; I'm just saying your example doesn't provide any evidence one way or the other.

Prince Vegita · 22 February 2005

Why is the hypothesis of a designer not scientifically relevant? The biological phenomena are consistent with the hypothesis of a designer. There are predictions that follow from such a hypothesis, e.g., similarities in structure (cf. similarities between different paintings and sculptures of the same artist).

That analogy only works if you know the nature of the designer (e.g. human). If you find a watch in the forest, you distinguish the fact that it is designed because the implicit statement is that everything surrounding it (rocks, trees, etc) is not designed. In order to prove otherwise, you need to identify the designer.

What kinds of explanation (as oppossed to particular explanations) can Darwinism supply that design theory cannot?

First of all, it isn't "Darwinism". Evolution was expanded upon with the re-discovery of Mendel's work. Secondly, evolution can provide us with mechanisms. ID can't. It can't even identify the designer, so it isn't anything more than metaphysics. The hallmarks of ID, IC and CSI, are nothing more than Argumentum ad Ignoratum attempts to classify, and empirically they fail at doing so.

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

All kinds of explanations except the universal blanket "he wanted it so" which is the empty explanation intelligent design theory can give. ... ID is an empty theory that explains everything with that one answer and, by extension doesn't explain anything, because if the sky happened to be green or we happened to be the only species in the planet, they would still be valid answers.

— Grey Wolf
As far as I know, the ID explanation to "Why is the sky blue?" is the same as the naturalist's answer, viz., because light waves corresponding to the color blue are scattered by the earth's atmosphere. While it is true that the last explanation in the series of explanations admitted by ID is "Because the designer made it so," and is therefore "unexplained," this fact should not bother critics. Naturalistic science is the same. The current candidate for "ultimate explanation" is super strings. Physicists hope to answer all questions (e.g., why gravity has just the strength that it does, etc.) in cosmogony through the vibrations of super strings. But any philospher or 3-year-old could follow up with the question "But why are strings the way they are, and why do they vibrate in these ways, and...?" To borrow a phrase from Wittgenstein: "Explanations come to an end somewhere." Every series of explanations, whether theistic or naturalistic, begins from first principles that cannot themselves be explained. Why all the fuss?

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

ID claims that such "designs" could not have happened without interference --- as such, why bother investigating them at all, if they're too hopelessly complex for we mere mortals to understand?

— Tara Smith
This the sentiment I object to. The ID claim is not that some biological systems are too complex to understand, but that the complexity that is understood is too complicated to arise without design.

Michael Finley · 22 February 2005

First of all, it isn't "Darwinism". Evolution was expanded upon with the re-discovery of Mendel's work.

— Prince Vegita
Sigh. "Neo-Darwinism" if you insist. Might I suggest a principle of charity instead of rhetorical nit-picking.

Secondly, evolution can provide us with mechanisms. ID can't. It can't even identify the designer, so it isn't anything more than metaphysics.

. Your correct if you restrict "mechanisms" to "natural mechanisms," i.e., if you assume naturalism. That may be your preference, but understand that's all it is, a philosophical preference.

Tara Smith · 22 February 2005

This the sentiment I object to. The ID claim is not that some biological systems are too complex to understand, but that the complexity that is understood is too complicated to arise without design.

— Michael Finley
And I see that merely as 2 sides of the same coin. Who's to say that we understand the "complex" systems well enough to be able to claim that they had to be designed?

Prince Vegita · 22 February 2005

Sigh. "Neo-Darwinism" if you insist. Might I suggest a principle of charity instead of rhetorical nit-picking.

As a scientist, I don't believe in charity. I believe in accuracy. "Evolution" would be a good thing to call it.

Your correct if you restrict "mechanisms" to "natural mechanisms," i.e., if you assume naturalism. That may be your preference, but understand that's all it is, a philosophical preference.

Please give an example of a supernatural mechanism. This should be good.

ts · 22 February 2005

This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset. Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia.

Strawman and fallacy of affirmation of the consequent. The claim wasn't that belief in a designer thwarts the desire to study, it was that claims for a designer are presented instead of doing further study. The imputing of motive is yours, not Tara Smith's, or those with "the naturalist mindset" (I guess that's the set of rational attitudes).

This the sentiment I object to. The ID claim is not that some biological systems are too complex to understand, but that the complexity that is understood is too complicated to arise without design.

What pathetic equivocation. "understanding" in this context is causal understanding. I must say, you're a fancier sort of ID troll than most, but troll you be nonetheless. The charter here is "The patrons gather to discuss evolutionary theory, critique the claims of the antievolution movement, defend the integrity of both science and science education, and share good conversation."

Sarg · 22 February 2005

But any philospher or 3-year-old could follow up with the question "But why are strings the way they are, and why do they vibrate in these ways, and . . . ?"

— Michael
As I see it, the difference is: 1- Scientist: "Yes, why indeed? Let's investigate that. I propose this and this hypothesis and these experiments". 2- IDer: "Because it was designed to be so". All explanations come to an end somewhere, but IDers seem to get to that end faster.

Tara Smith · 22 February 2005

I must say, you're a fancier sort of ID troll than most, but troll you be nonetheless. The charter here is "The patrons gather to discuss evolutionary theory, critique the claims of the antievolution movement, defend the integrity of both science and science education, and share good conversation."

— ts
C'mon. Though I disagree with Michael, he's been quite polite in his discussion. Can we please keep it that way on all sides? There can be "good conversation" even with people who disagree.

Steve Reuland · 22 February 2005

Doesn't the fact that Newton had the drive to write Principia provide a counter-example to the above antecedent?

— Michael Finley
Even assuming that Newton was driven by his religious faith, how does this validate the central argument of ID which states that anything whose origin cannot be immediately figured out via natural causes should have its origin attributed to divine intervention? Newton's belief in a "designer" may have given him inspiration, but he did not rely on divine intervention to explain the previously inexplicable phenomena in question. Had he done so, we would have ended up with some useless apologetics (perhaps in the service of 17th century "cultural renewal") instead of a rigorous and predictive science. I would say that Newton's Principia, and indeed every triumph of science, is a direct counter-example to the ID approach.

steve · 22 February 2005

Inspired by Russell, I rechrisen ID Ineffective Defeatism.

ts · 22 February 2005

Please give an example of a supernatural mechanism. This should be good.

Indeed. I've addressed this nonsense over in the Dennett thread. Scientific explanations are predictive; they provide justification for the expectation of an observation: "It would have been reasonable to expect [observation] because [explanation]". "supernatural explanations" aren't explanations at all, they are just fancy ways of saying "no explanation". They don't bear the proper relationship with the explanandum -- to pick it out, among alternatives, as a plausible outcome. "It was designed" -- why this way, rather than some other way? Why does this design utilize components from previous designs for other functions? Why are similar designs related in just those ways that evolution suggests? "supernatural explanations" are moot on such questions. Finlay claims that "it was designed" is predictive, because it predicts "similar" designs, as paintings by a single painter are similar. But "similarity" isn't predictive at all -- all paintings are "similar" in that they are paintings; all collections of organic molecules are similar by virtue of that commonality. "it was designed" cannot predict any feature of this "similarity". What sort of dissimilarity could falsify "it was designed", especially given the range of variability already observed in nature? All the similarity that Finlay refers to is already observed. What does "it was designed" predict? That all future observed organisms will be "similar" to existing organisms? But the whole point of ID is that there are dissimilarities -- that these designs could not, they wrongly say, have evolved from a common ancestor. And who is to say that there is just one designer? Perhaps each species, or each "irreducibly complex" mechanism, was designed by a different designer? How does the evidence support one hypothesis over the other? What evidence could possibly distinguish among them? Finley says that naturalism is "a philosophical preference". Well, doing science rather than religion is certainly a matter of preference -- the IDists and other creationists are welcome to do religion, or expound philosophy. But science is based on "methodological naturalism" -- that's what makes it science, and it isn't "a philosophical preference" whether "supernatural explanations" are allowed in science -- they aren't, period. And, like being right vs. being wrong, this preference isn't neutral -- it's the difference between the epistemological expansion that has resulted from the "natural philosophy" of the enlightenment, and the 2500 years of mental masturbation that has been the result of the misnomered "philosophy" -- more like sophophobia, often. Finley wants to know what all the fuss is about because, after all, any series of explanations bottoms out. But the difference is in being forced to bottom out and choosing to bottom out. It's like this famous New Yorker cartoon: http://www.frameworksoft.com/assets/images/miracle_cartoon.gif "I think you should be more explicit here in step two." Gee, why all the fuss about a model of biology that has a bunch of "Then a miracle occurs" scattered throughout? What's the difference between that and a Theory of Everything that contains undecomposable axioms? Perhaps it's that a) "it was designed" is not an undecomposable axiom and b) we can do, and have done, much better. The difference between naturalists and IDists isn't just a philosophical preference, it's that the former produce detailed predictive explanations and theories where the latter not only do not, but they make many factually incorrect claims, such as "irreducably complex systems could not have evolved". One of the fundamental tools of science is Occam's Razor, and it mandates against introduction of such "entities" as "miracle" or "designer" -- violations of Occam's Razor are worthy of a very big fuss indeed. For centuries, Occam's Razor was considered to be an effective methodological tool, but not a fact or truism. But information theorists have recently proven that Occam's Razor is a theorem, when expressed in the form "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct".

Though I disagree with Michael, he's been quite polite in his discussion.

Opening a conversation on a site devoted to naturalistic science with "This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset" is not polite, it's trolling. If he wants to bash naturalists for being naturalists, there are plenty of places where he can find kindred spirits (sic).

Flint · 22 February 2005

I confess to a philosophical preference for arguments backed by evidence. I understand that I'm probably very much in the minority in this preference, for whatever reasons. I also understand that this minority carries an ungrateful, ignorant, and superstitious majority on its shoulders. And that majority uses the very products of the 'worldview' they despise (which would never have come to pass without that worldview) to do their jobs, provide themselves with food clothing and shelter, and even write to blogs and bulletin boards to deny the validity of what produces their lifestyle.

It's kind of a shame that we can't let those with a philosophical preference for evidence live in one world, and let those with a philosphical preference for magic live in another. I wonder if the lesson would ever penetrate?

David Heddle · 22 February 2005

Just for completeness, the explanation of Rayleigh scattering (preferential scattering of lower wavelengths) for why the sky is blue is incomplete. Otherwise, the wise student should ask "why isn't the sky purple?" The complete answer is the convolution of Rayleigh scattering and the frequency dependent sensitivity of our eyes.

Our eyes are most sensitive to yellow, of course.

The general idea that ID thwarts science is belied by those of us who are IDers and who, in fact, do science.

Jeff Mauldin · 22 February 2005

One obvious problem with this discussion is this assumption that belief in intelligent design causes a person to have no curiousity about nature and how things work. I believe in intelligent design, yet I am quite curious to dig down and understand how things work. I would call it simple arrogance to say "I don't believe in intelligent design, and therefore I have greater curiosity than those who believe in intelliegent design."

Ed Darrell · 22 February 2005

The biological phenomena are consistent with the hypothesis of a designer. There are predictions that follow from such a hypothesis, e.g., similarities in structure (cf. similarities between different paintings and sculptures of the same artist).

If the designer is limited in resources, such a prediction might follow. It does not follow for an omnipotent designer. Be clear what you mean. Similarities in structure are not required of a very creative designer, nor of an omnipotent one, I would posit. Consider that a mechanical watch can be run either by a springwound mechanism with a regulator, or with quartz-crystal vibrations setting the time and controlling an electric motor. One expects such dramatic variations in design of common-job objects, especially where the design meets other standards (a springwound watch might be good for people in the wilderness, a long way from a supply of tiny batteries, for example). But otherwise, similarities in structure are required ONLY if there are no other structures that could possibly do the job or if the designer is incapable of conceiving of a different design, as early springwound watchmakers had no concept of electricity and electric motors, or if the designer is incapable of producing the design dreamed of -- see da Vinci's flying machines, for example. It may also be the case that differences in design argue for different designers. Perhaps the squid has an eye superior to mammals because the squid has a different designer. Where is the intelligent design lab that is working on any of that?

ts · 22 February 2005

Why is the hypothesis of a designer not scientifically relevant? The biological phenomena are consistent with the hypothesis of a designer.

Anything is consistent with the hypothesis of a designer, making the hypothesis scientifically irrelevant -- it is unfalsifiable, and is the grossest possible violation of Ockham's Razor, since it is consistent with, and adds nothing to, any set of hypotheses. The point of the unfalsifiability of design has been made many times; I suggest that you learn the rudiments of philosophy of science.

There are predictions that follow from such a hypothesis, e.g., similarities in structure (cf. similarities between different paintings and sculptures of the same artist).

This too has been discussed at length. If you think there are such predictions, then offer one. "We can expect similarities of structure" is as semantically empty as the daily horoscope.

What kinds of explanation (as oppossed to particular explanations) can Darwinism supply that design theory cannot?

First, "design theory" is not a "theory" at all in the scientific sense, it's just a negative claim against the theory of evolution; this too has been discussed at length. The kind of explanations that the theory of evolution supplies is the scientific kind -- causal explanations that have predictive power. Predictive in the real sense that the predictions are specific and non-obvious in absence of the theory, that they are novel -- they go beyond what has already been observed, and are not made by competing theories or hypotheses. OTOH, there are no "predictions" of "design theory" that are specific, non-obvious, go beyond what has already been observed, or are inconsistent with the theory of evolution -- "organisms have similar structures" fails on all counts. Here are some specific predictions of evolution; kindly provide anything of the sort that results from so-called "design theory": http://www.X.org/creation/evo_science.html (replace "X" with "don-lindsay-archive" -- it seems this site imposes some sort of censorship.) You might want to read the whole site -- you would advance your knowledge immensely from its current state, and it might disabuse you of your confused, mistaken, and fallacious "mindset".

Henry J · 22 February 2005

Re "Perhaps each species [...] was designed by a different designer?"
Perhaps each species was "designed" by the gene pools of its ancestors? ;)

Re "and let those with a philosphical preference for magic live in another"
Abracadabra! (Heh heh)

Henry

Russell · 22 February 2005

The general idea that ID thwarts science is belied by those of us who are IDers and who, in fact, do science.

See my comments above. I don't have an opinion about the effect of ID on nuclear physics (well, I do. I just don't have any data). But there aren't many of you in biology.

jeff-perado · 22 February 2005

Michael Finley wrote: To borrow a phrase from Wittgenstein: "Explanations come to an end somewhere." Every series of explanations, whether theistic or naturalistic, begins from first principles that cannot themselves be explained. Why all the fuss?

In other words, according to IDist's, "Why bother to conduct scientific research when no answer can be found?" Compare this to Michael's original statement:

This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset. Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia. There are many serious complaints that can be lodged against design arguments - this isn't one of them.

I sense a blatant contradiction....

Buridan · 22 February 2005

Jeff,

As ts pointed out above, the issue isn't about curiosity it's about the limiting perspective of ID - the refusal to look for certain explanatory variables due to their interpretive framework. The crucial difference between science and ID is that the former seeks to explain while the latter seeks to interpret. The presuppositions between these two modes of inquiry are miles apart.

Buridan · 22 February 2005

My comment was directed toward Jeff Mauldin (to avoid any confusion)

ts · 22 February 2005

One obvious problem with this discussion is this assumption that belief in intelligent design causes a person to have no curiousity about nature and how things work.

As has already been noted more than once, this is a strawman. It is extremely arrogant to impute to people a much sillier view than the one they profess.

I would call it simple arrogance to say "I don't believe in intelligent design, and therefore I have greater curiosity than those who believe in intelliegent design."

It is extremely arrogant to assert that some biological mechanism could not have evolved, rather than explore ways in which it might have evolved. In this case, it is demonstrable that those who don't believe in intelligent design have greater curiosity about how such mechanisms might have evolved, since it is they, and not the believers in intelligent design, who have actually investigated these matters and shown how many of these mechanisms could have and probably did evolve. These sorts of assertions are argumentum ad ignorantiam, and have no place in science. One might have hoped that, after such nonsense as that rockets can't reach the moon, humans can't survive automobiles going more than 20 miles an hour, the continents could not have drifted, and so on, that we would be done with such nonsense. There are plenty of valid negative claims in science, such as that nothing travels faster than the speed of light and that global entropy can't decrease, but these are the consequences of positive predictive evidentially confirmed theories. "design theory" is nothing of the sort -- it consists of sophistic pseudo-logical deductive "proofs" that evolution isn't possible, and simply ignores the logic and numerous counterexamples that refute these proofs. It's an intellectually dishonest and arrogant enterprise from top to bottom.

Buridan · 22 February 2005

To borrow a phrase from Wittgenstein: "Explanations come to an end somewhere." Every series of explanations, whether theistic or naturalistic, begins from first principles that cannot themselves be explained.

— Michael Finley
If there ever was a philosopher who argued against first principles, it was Wittgenstein.

elephantine · 22 February 2005

The problem is fairly simple. When arguments for design rest upon the ignorance of a natural explanation, there is a tendency to then avoid finding a natural explanation. Some ID arguments flatly rest on natural explanations being eliminated from the field of explanadum.

No one disputes the capacity for IDists to do science. What is disputed is the capacity for IDists offer scientific explanations for phenomena they've already labeled "designed" via a baroque argument from ignorance.

There are no selective hypotheses that flow from the theory of "designer" because that theory is general enough to allow for any observation simply by tweeking the motives and abilities of said mysterious designer. Simply defining one's designer to have the goals and abilities that obtain the observations in question results in a empty tailor-made hypothesis.

Elliott Sober very effectively argues this in his essay, Intelligent Design and Probability Reasoning

"Intelligent design theorists may feel that they have already stated their theory. If the existence of the vertebrate eye is what one wishes to explain, their hypothesis is that an intelligent designer constructed the vertebrate eye. If it is the characteristics of the vertebrate eye (the fact that it has features F1, F2, ..., Fn), rather than its mere existence, that one wants to explain, their hypothesis is that an intelligent designer constructed the vertebrate eye with the intention that it have features F1, F2, ..., Fn and that this designer had the ability to bring his plan to fruition. Notice that both of these formulations of the hypothesis of intelligent design simply build into that hypothesis the observations whose explanation we seek. The problem with this strategy is that the same game can be played by the other side. If the evolutionary hypothesis is formulated by saying "evolution by natural selection produced the vertebrate eye" or by saying that "evolution by natural selection endowed the eye with features F1, F2, ..., Fn ," then it too entails the observations.

To avoid trivializing the problem in this way, we should formulate the observations so that they are not built into the hypotheses we want to test..."

http://philosophy.wisc.edu/sober/ID&PRword.PDF#search='Elliot%20Sober%20intelligent%20design'

These type of radically tailor-made explanations are scientifically worthless. The hypothesis yeilds no independent prediction, nor does it yeild any insight into the phenomena. The only evidence for a designer existing having the motive and ability to obtain some feature of reality is the mere existence of that feature. This can be done with literally everything from volcanoes to plaque to weather, which should clue you into why it doesn't work.

Adam Marczyk · 22 February 2005

I believe in intelligent design, yet I am quite curious to dig down and understand how things work.

That's precisely the problem: advocates of ID want to understand how things work, but not why. They're not interested in understanding how things came to be as they are. I'm sure IDists would be perfectly happy if biology was a large pile of unrelated facts, with no deeper explanation (other than "ID did it" - which, as numerous contributors have already capably shown, is really equivalent to no explanation at all since it is equally applicable to all imaginable evidence). Why is it important to investigate the why as well as the how? Because that understanding often leads us in new directions by enabling us to recognize things we didn't even recognize as unusual before. Think how many advances in modern electronics, and how many likely future advances, owe their existence to quantum mechanics - which would never have been invented if physicists had not been persistent at crafting a theory that unified and explained several interesting phenomena rather than just describing them and then letting them drop.

ts · 22 February 2005

If there ever was a philosopher who argued against first principles, it was Wittgenstein.

One of the difficulties with using Wittgenstein as an authority is that he presented at least three different and to some degree contradictory philosophical views -- and each was a work of genius. The Wittgenstein of Tractatus was very much a believer in first principles, while the Blue and Tan Wittgenstein thoroughly rejected the views of his predecessor, but then the late Wittenstein of On Certainty held that our "language games" are grounded in unrevisable certainty, beyond any epistemological judgments -- "first principles" so deep that they are not propositional, but rather are instinctive, animalistic, a matter of how we act rather than what we "see". For Wittgenstein, "certainty" is in a different category from "knowledge"; it is not the sort of thing we might doubt or even be sure of -- it goes beyond that. The question "How do you know?" isn't even applicable to the certainties he is talking about. For instance, I might doubt that this is my mouse, but I cannot doubt that this is my hand. That this is my hand is descriptive, but no explanation is warranted as to why this is my hand, on what basis I claim that this is my hand. To claim skepticism as to whether this is my hand, is to misuse words. "We might describe his way of behaving as like the behavior of doubt, but his game would not be ours.", Wittgenstein writes. Interestingly, there are forms of brain damage that result in people being unaware of or disowning their body parts, so some of the things that Wittgenstein held to be foundational and not propositional may be more propositional than he thought. I believe this is my hand because I am conscious of it, I feel sensation from it, and it seems to move when and as I wish it to, but in the absence of any of those, skepticism might be warranted. OTOH, there's something to his claim that to suppose that one is dreaming is to suppose that the supposition itself is a dream and therefore to render it meaningless. David Chalmers approaches this the other way around, arguing in his paper "The Matrix as Metaphysics" (http://consc.net/papers/matrix.html) that, if his brain is in a vat on an alien planet, being fed by a computer simulating a life as a human being living in Tucson, his belief that he is in Tucson is nonetheless a true belief, not a delusion. It is worth noting that his argument applies to Creationism (which is not what I had in mind when I started writing this post!):

The Creation Hypothesis says: Physical space-time and its contents were created by beings outside physical space-time. This is a familiar hypothesis. A version of it is believed by many people in our society, and perhaps by the majority of the people in the world. If one believes that God created the world, and if one believes that God is outside physical space-time, then one believes the Creation Hypothesis. One needn't believe in God to believe the Creation Hypothesis, though. Perhaps our world was created by a relatively ordinary being in the "next universe up", using the latest world-making technology in that universe. If so, the Creation Hypothesis is true. I don't know whether the Creation Hypothesis is true. But I don't know for certain that it is false. The hypothesis is clearly coherent, and I cannot conclusively rule it out. The Creation Hypothesis is not a skeptical hypothesis. Even if it is true, most of my ordinary beliefs are still true. I still have hands, I am still in Tucson, and so on. Perhaps a few of my beliefs will turn out false: if I am an atheist, for example, or if I believe all reality started with the Big Bang. But most of my everyday beliefs about the external world will remain intact.

Actually, I think Chalmers here underestimates the radical nature of his argument. Even if a God outside of physical space-time created the universe, that does not negate atheism. Nor does the proposition that God created the universe less than 10,000 years ago to look exactly as if there were a Big Bang negate the belief that the universe started with a Big Bang. These beliefs are just as correct as the belief that my brain is in my head, even if my brain is in a vat and my head and the brain in it are "a dream", because the dream is a virtual reality, and the truth or falsity of propositions relating to the facts of that virtual reality are determined solely those facts, and not by anything that can be said of some other or outer or higher-level reality -- which I suggest are, for all intents and purposes, figments of the imagination, i.e., "dreams", since they cannot in any way be confirmed.

Michael Finely · 22 February 2005

[author=TS]One of the fundamental tools of science is Occam's Razor, and it mandates against introduction of such "entities" as "miracle" or "designer" --- violations of Occam's Razor are worthy of a very big fuss indeed. For centuries, Occam's Razor was considered to be an effective methodological tool, but not a fact or truism. But information theorists have recently proven that Occam's Razor is a theorem, when expressed in the form "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct".

Anything is consistent with the hypothesis of a designer, making the hypothesis scientifically irrelevant --- it is unfalsifiable, and is the grossest possible violation of Ockham's Razor, since it is consistent with, and adds nothing to, any set of hypotheses.

As a doctoral student in the philosophy of language and science, I find your recommendation of more philosophy of science education somewhat humorous. Ockham's razor is an aesthetic concern with no logical force whatsoever. Given two theories that explain the phenomena (say, the Einsteinian and quantum mechanical explanations of gravity), on being simpler than the other, there is not a non-aesthetic reason to prefer one to the other.

Coincidentally, my dissertation is on the continuity of Wittgenstein's philosophy. Forget the fact that I was merely appropriating a quote of LW's for my own purposes; the claim that Wittgenstein was not the man for first principles is ridiculous - what do you call the simple objects of the Tractatus.

I would love to digress into a discussion of Wittgenstein, but I have already been asked to take my ball and go home with respect to criticizing Darwin. Perhaps those among you who don't want to discuss such matters, should simply ignore me.

Ruthless · 22 February 2005

David Heddle wrote: The general idea that ID thwarts science is belied by those of us who are IDers and who, in fact, do science.

A strawman. No one is arguing that someone who believes in god or aliens or Elvis can't do science. Most here would argue, however, that one cannot do science using "Intelligent Design" philosophy (except where the designers in question are human or at least have manifested themselves in some observable fashion, of course.) Additionally (and I'm not saying you said this, but this is relevant to this thread), mainstream scientists are not upset that people believe in god or other non-evidenced entities nor do they (nor I) wish to ban such a philosophy. What they (and I) have a problem with is when some believers in "ID" wish to change the definition of science to include specious reasoning, untestable hypotheses, theories which have no explanatory value and lead to no knew insights nor research, theories which cannot be compared against other imagined explanations, mysticism, etc. One may argue "What's the harm in allowing those things into science?" Aside from the fact that they would not lead anywhere intellectually, the government decides what research gets funded and what research does not; and since our government is run by Christians, it wouldn't be long before all funded scientific research would have to include the "intelligent designer". Not long after that, they'd drop the pretense and just say "god". Not long after that, they'd drop the pretense of being non-denominational and just say "Jesus". That shouldn't be hard to imagine; most Americans are Christians, so there'd be little opposition...except from people of minority faiths/philosophies. Anyone not on the bandwagon would become second-class citizens. Later, anyone not on the bandwagon would like be converted or killed. Sound far-fetched? Read a history book. I'm not saying it will happen soon, but that's what the ID camp has in mind. We've already seen government dictating science: The current administration is an excellent example. There are numerous reports of pressure to change findings to agree with the White House's agenda and of the White House silencing and ignoring findings that contradict their ideology. And, of course, the White House cuts funding for science that doesn't match their ideology.

Air Bear · 22 February 2005

David Heddle wrote:
"Just for completeness, the explanation of Rayleigh scattering (preferential scattering of lower wavelengths) for why the sky is blue is incomplete. Otherwise, the wise student should ask "why isn't the sky purple?" The complete answer is the convolution of Rayleigh scattering and the frequency dependent sensitivity of our eyes.

"Our eyes are most sensitive to yellow, of course.

"The general idea that ID thwarts science is belied by those of us who are IDers and who, in fact, do science."

I would be interested to know just how you use ID in your work, how it generates hypotheses, how it leads to discoveries. And how it applies to the case of blue sky.

I'm not talking about ID as a harmless philosphico-religious diversion that is external to science, but as a positive aid in doing scientific research.

(BTW, any graduate of high school physics knows that our eyes are most sensitive to yellow-green, not pure yellow. I hope you're more precise in your professional work.)

Ruthless · 22 February 2005

This is a common error ingrained in the naturalist mindset. Were it actually the case that belief in a designer thwarted the desire to study nature and discover its secrets, e.g., Newton would never have written Principia. There are many serious complaints that can be lodged against design arguments - this isn't one of them.

Newton is an excellent example of the utility of Intelligent Design. Prior to Newton, angels were invoked to explain forces and motion; Newton explained kinematics naturalistically. Which do you think is the more useful explanation? Newton himself was puzzled about the solar system and concluded that god must be responsible for its form. Laplace then determined--naturalistically--how the solar system formed. Which explanation do you think is more useful? And finally: "Intelligent Design" is not a new theory by a long shot. In fact, probably since well before recorded human history, it has been the default theory. Given that it's had at least a few thousand years, shouldn't we expect it to have accomplished something? What has been accomplished by appealing to an unevidenced designer? People used to pray to the sun and moon; they thought they were intelligent beings that controlled their lives. That idea seems pretty foolish today (though some still worship the sun and moon, I'm sure.) People used to think that lightning and storms were the wrath of the gods. Today we have meteorology. People used to think that disease was caused by demons. Today we have medicine. People used to think that comets were messages from god. Today we have astronomy. ID certainly isn't a new idea. It's been around forever. And it has always been steadily replaced by scientific, naturalistic explanations.

Dave S. · 22 February 2005

The biological phenomena are consistent with the hypothesis of a designer. There are predictions that follow from such a hypothesis, e.g., similarities in structure (cf. similarities between different paintings and sculptures of the same artist).

This seems a fair test. If we compare organisms that function in a similar manner and in a similar environment, they should be more closely related both anatomically and at the molecular scale than those that function very differently. So what do we find when we compare a whale, a shark, and a cow? Clearly you'd expect based on common design that the similarities should be closer between whale and shark, and the cow should be very different from those two. Is that what we find? If this is not a fair test of the "similarities in stucture" argument, then please explain why, and propose what would be a fair test.

The general idea that ID thwarts science is belied by those of us who are IDers and who, in fact, do science.

If they ignore ID, even an ID advocate can advance our knowledge in science. Having a philosophical soft spot for "design" does not mean you can use it in any practical way as a methodology in science. Nor does it mean that any advancement you do make necessarily has anything to do with ID. Say for instance you decide a certain feature, for example the vertebrate blood clotting cascade, shows evidence of design, based not on any positive case for design but because you don't think it could have arisen via an evolutionary mechanism. We take this as a given. OK. What now? How do you continue to investigate it. The obvious questions are who was the designer(s)? How did they do it? When did they do it? Why did they do it. Unfortunately ID "theory" as it exists not only cannot answer any of these, it does not even tell us how to go about finding the answers. So we have scientists in lab coats sitting around twiddling their thumbs. What are they supposed to do now? What they can do is to find molecular homologies and construct probable pathways and look at other organisms for clues, but none of these activities flow from ID. They flow from evolution. And if they do these things, it means they are ignoring design as a possibility. They are studying as if the conclusion of 'design' was never reached. Unless the design mimicked evolution of course. In any case, what good has reaching a conclusion of design done for us as a tool for understanding nature?

Dan S. · 23 February 2005

From www.evolvefish.com - it really sums it all up for me:

"The Heretical Rod
The first major blow against these biblical superstitions about storms and lightning [that they were caused by demons/spirits] was struck in 1752 when Benjamin Franklin made his famous electrical experiments with a kite. The second and fatal blow was struck later in the same year when he invented the lightning rod. With Franklin's scientific explanations of lightning, the question that had so long taxed the minds of the world's leading theologians-"Why should the Almighty strike his own consecrated temples, or suffer Satan to strike them"-could finally be answered rationally.

Thunder and lightning were considered tokens of God's displeasure. It was considered impious to prevent their doing damage. This was despite the fact that in Germany, within a span of 33 years, nearly 400 towers were damaged and 120 bell ringers were killed.

In Switzerland, France and Italy, popular prejudice against the lightning rod was ignited and fueled by the churches and resulted in the tearing down of lightning rods from many homes and buildings, including one from the Institute of Bologna, the leading scientific institution in Italy. The Swiss chemist, M. de Saussure, removed a rod he had erected on his house in Geneva in 1771 when it caused his neighbors so much anxiety that he feared a riot.

In 1780-1784, a lawsuit about lightning rods gave M. de St. Omer the right to have a lightning rod on top of his house despite the religious objections of his neighbors. This victory established the fame of the lawyer in the case, young Robespierre.

In America, Rev. Thomas Prince, pastor of Old South Church, blamed Franklin's invention of the lightning rod for causing the Massachusetts earthquake of 1755.

In Prince's sermon on the topic, he expressed the opinion that the frequency of earthquakes may be due to the erection of "points invented by the sagacious Mr. Franklin." He goes on to argue that "in Boston more are erected than anywhere else in New England, and Boston seems to be more dreadfully shaken. Oh! There is no getting out of the mighty hand of God."
. . .
A typical case was the tower of St. Mark's in Venice. In spite of the angel at its summit, the bells consecrated to ward off devils and witches in the air, the holy relics in the church below, and the Processions in the adjacent square, the tower was frequently damaged or destroyed by lightning. It was not until 1766 that a lightning rod was placed upon it-and the tower has never been struck since.
. . .
The Rod Spared
Such examples as these, in all parts of Europe, had their effect. The ecclesiastical formulas for preventing storms and consecrating bells to protect against lightning and tempests were still practiced in the Churches, but the lightning rod carried the day. Christian Churches were finally obliged to confess its practicality. The few theologians who stuck to the old theories and fumed against Franklin's attempts to "control the artillery of heaven" were finally silenced, like the lightning, by Franklin's lighting rod and the supremacy of the scientific method. "

RBH · 23 February 2005

Ed Darrell asked

It may also be the case that differences in design argue for different designers. Perhaps the squid has an eye superior to mammals because the squid has a different designer. Where is the intelligent design lab that is working on any of that?

Almost everyone in this thread persists in using the singular "designer," when the evidence for a designer (if there is any such evidence) unmistakeably implicates multiple designers. While it's now proprietary, there's more actual research directly on questions raised by Multiple Designers Theory than there is from all of the Wells's, Behes, Dembskis, and those "Darwin-doubting" signers of petitions who unreasonhably cling to a single-designer conjecture. I'm dead serious: as ts indirectly implied above, it is the necessity to hold to a single designer that renders ID explanatorily vacuous by not allowing it to make differentiating predictions. RBH

Gary Hurd · 23 February 2005

Great post Tara. Thanks for the information.

I was once told that there were forams that lived in human mouths, is that true?

ts · 23 February 2005

As a doctoral student in the philosophy of language and science, I find your recommendation of more philosophy of science education somewhat humorous. Ockham's razor is an aesthetic concern with no logical force whatsoever.

— Michael Finley
As I noted, Ockham's Razor has been proven as a theorem in information theory, so either your education or your ability to absorb it are lacking. Since your education has not only left you with the absurd impression that OR is merely "an aesthetic concern" but has also apparently failed to provide you with the skill to properly refute or confirm a claim such as "information theorists have recently proven that Occam's Razor is a theorem", I will help you out by pointing you to a couple of the many pages that come up in response to googling occam+razor+theorem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_Razor http://eprints.pascal-network.org/archive/00000817/

We provide a new representation-independent formulation of Occam's razor theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity. This new formulation allows us to: (i) Obtain better sample complexity than both length-based \cite{blumer1} and VC-based \cite{blumer} versions of Occam's razor theorem, in many applications; and (ii) Achieve a sharper reverse of Occam's razor theorem than that of \cite{board}. Specifically, we weaken the assumptions made in \cite{board} and extend the reverse to superpolynomial running times.

Hopefully you will be able to make some sense of that in spite of any "philosophy of language" that you may have been exposed to.

Given two theories that explain the phenomena (say, the Einsteinian and quantum mechanical explanations of gravity), on being simpler than the other, there is not a non-aesthetic reason to prefer one to the other.

Well, there's the one I already stated: "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct". But I guess your graduate level education in philosophy of language and science hasn't taught you about

http://www.ukpoliticsmisc.org.uk/usenet_evidence/argument.html ... The Rebuttal Principle One who presents an argument for or against a position should attempt to provide an effective rebuttal to all serious challenges to the argument or the position it supports and to the strongest argument on the other side of the issue.

...

the claim that Wittgenstein was not the man for first principles is ridiculous - what do you call the simple objects of the Tractatus.

Well, it would seem that ability to absorb is indeed lacking, since I (the apparent referent of "you" above) just wrote "The Wittgenstein of Tractatus was very much a believer in first principles"

I have already been asked to take my ball and go home with respect to criticizing Darwin.

Darwin is long dead and biological science has moved far beyond him, in part due to the sort of intensive criticism of his views that is at the heart of "the naturalist mindset". Criticizing Darwin rather than prevailing evolutionary theory is a common behavior of anti-evolutionist trolls, but it isn't relevant to either science or public policy.

Perhaps those among you who don't want to discuss such matters, should simply ignore me.

As I noted, the charter here includes "discuss evolutionary theory, critique the claims of the antievolution movement, defend the integrity of both science and science education" -- if you have a different agenda, your mistaken claims and sophistic arguments against evolution, science, and the methodological naturalism it is based on will likely receive the sort of comment they deserve. It's worth noting that the charter isn't complete -- due to the open posting policy, anti-evolutionist trolls are a common occurrence, and ripping their fallacious arguments to shreds is considered by some to be a form of sport.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

this designer can just jump in and poke around with stuff willy-nilly, why bother investigating at all?

— Tara
Because we can assume that the designer of biological systems is working within the constraints of physical laws just like the designer of the computer you used to write your little missive.

ts · 23 February 2005

P.S.

the claim that Wittgenstein was not the man for first principles is ridiculous - what do you call the simple objects of the Tractatus.

— Michael Finley
There's a fallacy implicit in this strawman that should be of particular interest to a student of philosophy of language. Buridan didn't say that "Wittgenstein was not the man for first principles". Rather, he said

If there ever was a philosopher who argued against first principles, it was Wittgenstein.

Wittgenstein could well be "the man for first principles" and have argued against first principles -- if, say, he rejected some of his earlier work. As someone doing his dissertation on Wittgenstein, you presumably have some idea as to whether that's the case.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Ockham's Razor has been proven as a theorem in information theory, so either your education or your ability to absorb it are lacking. Since your education has not only left you with the absurd

— ts
Where on earth did you come up with that nonsense? Occam's Razor is a rule of thumb not a theory. It says the simplest solution is usually the correct one. Note it's not ALWAYS the correct one. Quantum physics certainly isn't simple compared to Newtonian physics. And by the way, the simplest solution to the overwhelming appearance of design, is that it's a design. Tortured and unproven hypotheses to the contrary that attempt to explain how the most complex machine ever observed happened by a long series of random chance defeating virtually impossible odds are NOT what William of Occam advises as the leading presumption.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

all of the Wells's, Behes, Dembskis, and those "Darwin-doubting" signers of petitions who unreasonhably cling to a single-designer conjecture

— RBH
The signers of the petition explicitely doubt mutation + natural selection as being adequate to explain the diversity of life. Can't you at least get that little bit right? Mischaracterizing the opposition through either ignorance or dishonesty does nothing to further your side's agenda. In fact it does just the opposite.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Who's to say that we understand the "complex" systems well enough to be able to claim that they had to be designed?

— Tara
I have designed enough complex computer hardware to recognize design when I see it. I may not know the design team but the design is apparent nonetheless. Just the combination of DNA/ribosome, which is perhaps the best understood subset of cellular machinery at the moment, is very much like a computer controlled milling machine able to fabricate all the parts required to replicate itself. And that just scratches the surface of the machinery of life. One little, but important and moderately well understood subsystem that churns out 3-D protein sculptures to specifications contained in the genetic code. Machines like that don't just appear out of thin air. At least none are known for a fact to have appeared out of thin air. Especially troublesome to non-intelligent origin is when the storage media for the specifications (DNA) requires the milling machine (ribosome) to produce it and the milling machine requires the specifications for the milling machine parts to be produced. I have yet to see any hypotheses even remotely supportable about how the chicken/egg paradox of DNA/ribosome came about with no intelligent design input. In fact all machines except biological systems are known to be the result of intelligent design. The rational assumption is that machines are the result of intelligent design until proven otherwise. Biological machines are no exception.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

One obvious problem with this discussion is this assumption that belief in intelligent design causes a person to have no curiousity about nature and how things work. I believe in intelligent design, yet I am quite curious to dig down and understand how things work. I would call it simple arrogance to say "I don't believe in intelligent design, and therefore I have greater curiosity than those who believe in intelliegent design."

— Jeff Mauldin
Very good. In the world of commercial computer design (my professional world), working specifications are often held as trade secrets so the owner can maintain control & profitibility as long as possible. Others who which to capitalize on the capabilities of those systems are then forced to do what is commonly called "reverse engineering" where we figure out how the thing in question works through dissection and experimentation rather than getting a copy of the code or schematics from the original designer(s). Reverse engineering is exactly what science is doing with the machinery of life. The motivation for the effort is not dependant on who or what came up with the design but rather the practical benefits derived from knowing how it works.

Randall · 23 February 2005

Despite claims to the contrary, design theory is not "simpler" in an Occam's Razor sense than evolution. Evolution assumes that simple processes we have already seen work in the lab can have a cumulative effect over time to create the diversity of life we see today. Design assumes that diversity has to be designed, and that there exists a designer. That's the thing: In order for design "theory" to have any remote validity, you must first prove the existence of a designer without using the "designed" things as evidence! Why? Because otherwise, your argument looks like this: How do we know this cell was designed? Its intricate parts bear the signature of the designer. How do we know the designer exists and what his/her signature looks like? Because we know this cell was designed. Do you see why that argument is circular? Does design "theory" make any actual testable claims that aren't question-begging?

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Clearly you'd expect based on common design that the similarities should be closer between whale and shark

— Dave S.
Clearly not. The shark is cartilage boned, cold blooded, and breathes water while the whale has calcium bones, warm blood, and breathes air. At first blush I'd put the cow and the whale closer than the shark and the whale based upon those easy structural observations. Examples of things you might expect from design is relatively rapid instantiation of new forms followed by long periods of stasis which mutation/selection DID NOT predict. You'd expect to see top-down evolution where new forms appear from a paucity of ancestral forms instead of bottom-up design where new forms appear from a plethora of ancestral forms which mutation/selection predicts. In point of fact the fossil record reveals both rapid instantiation of new forms and top-down evolution. Mutation/selection is perhaps the greatest failed hypothesis since the days when scientists believed the earth was at the center of the universe and everything else spun around it. Its days are numbered. An increasing number of people are examining the evidence and noting how mutation/selection fails to adequately explain it. Darwinian evolution ceased being science a long time ago and became a faith based philosophy much closer to a religion than a science which explains its dogged hanger's on despite spectacular failures in its predictions.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

the most complex machine ever observed happened by a long series of random chance defeating virtually impossible odds

Tell me, DaveScot, how many times will it have to be pointed out to you that that is not what evolution states before you actually learn about evolution and try to attack it instead of attacking a strawman of your own creation? I mean, for God's sake, the "evolution means getting a machine by pure chance" cannard has been disproven for what, 100 years now? Not to mention that the odds are extremelly probable (see bellow). Besides, you aren't even fluent in your own field, which you have demonstrated with your lack of knowledge of information theory, why should I listen to what you say in a field that is not even your own? To whit: evolution says that complexity arises. It doesn't predict which of the billions of possible complexities will arise, only that a small subset will. You draw 100000 cards from a million decks, and are amazed at the combination you get. We look at it and note that since any of them would be equally amazing, none really are.* By the way, speaking now to someone who knows about this kind of thing, has there been any study into the prediction horizon of evolution theory? In case my words are getting mangled in translation, we can predict three days of weather and millions of years of planetary movements, but after that event horizon, chaos makes things "murky" (as stated by chaos theory). I wonder, as I say, what that horizon is for evolution (I'd say a few generations, but is just a guess), so I'd like to know if someone has looked into it and what his or her conclussions were. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf *This is a very simplified version of evolution, since evolution is able to predict that some subsets are more probable to evolve than others - specifically, any subset that is best for the then current environment and can evolve from the subset already in palce

ts · 23 February 2005

Ockham's Razor has been proven as a theorem in information theory, so either your education or your ability to absorb it are lacking. Since your education has not only left you with the absurd Where on earth did you come up with that nonsense?

— DaveScot
From the fact that there's considerable literature on the subject, including published proofs, like the one I actually cited in the post you're responding to, you imbecile.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Evolution assumes that simple processes we have already seen work in the lab can have a cumulative effect over time to create the diversity of life we see today.

— Randall
In other words some perfectly good observations obtained through the scientific method that explain minor scale adaptations over short periods of geologic time to best fit any particular environmental niche have been extrapolated into major form adaptations over geologic timespans. Morever, the predictions of these small scale changes gradually accumulating into a great diversity of species from which new forms are selected has utterly failed to be supported in the fossil record which shows major new forms emerging from a scarcity of species and not emerging gradually but very rapidly. The extrapolation's predictions failed. Admit it and move on. The overwhelming appearance of design is not an illusion. It's real. It's the only explanation which perfectly fits the facts.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

From the fact that there's considerable literature on the subject, including published proofs, like the one I actually cited in the post you're responding to, you imbecile.

— ts
You linked to a wikipedia article that properly calls Occams's Razor a "principle". That does not support your position that it's a proven theorum. Neither does some obscure paper submitted to Information Processing Letters. Pay attention. Occam's Razor is a perspective, not a falsifiable or provable hypothesis. Get a clue. Purchase one if necessary.

Randall · 23 February 2005

The minor changes we've seen show that organisms adapt to their environments. Whether or not major changes happen over geologically long or geologically short time periods is predicted to depend on whether the environments have changed over geologically long or short time periods. Lab results can give us a rough idea of the maximum rate of evolution, but also predict that if the environment is constant, evolution will asymtotically approach a well-suited organism and then stop making major changes. So any questions about the pace of evolution cannot be answered in the lab; rather, they'll have to be answered in the field (since we can't, y'know, figure out what environmental conditions were based on some lab tests).

Randall · 23 February 2005

Oh, and you're right about Occam's Razor; the article ts linked to talked about how it's applied to science. This link shows how it's a proven theorm of information theory. Hope that helps.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

that is not what evolution states

— Grey Wolf
"Evolution" is not a precise term. How many times must I point out to you that I don't deny that evolution happened? The evidence that a common single celled ancestor unfolded into the diversity we see today is stark and compelling. I don't deny it. What I deny is the ability of mutation/selection to explain it all, just like the hundreds of scientists that had the courage to sign a statement saying they question mutation/selection's ability to explain the diversity of life. Write that down.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Randall

I suggest you read the article you linked to. Pay particular attention to "the one generating the shortest overall message is more likely to be correct".

So it's been proven to be likely.

Thanks. Statements like that are proven likely to provoke laughter.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

The overwhelming appearance of design is not an illusion. It's real. It's the only explanation which perfectly fits the facts

I'm still waiting for you to design that circuit that distinguishes between 1000 Hz and 10000 Hz with less than 50 logic gates, DaveScot. Do you think that the one we have (which fullfils the criteria, but was evolved) is designed? And I am quite underwhelmed by your appearance of design - mainly because I've seen none so far. Also, of course your explanaition fits the facts. It fits all the facts - all imaginable facts. No matter what we observe, it might have been created by a designer. Of course, it is useless to science, since it is unfalsifiable. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_Razor

In science

Ockham's Razor has become a basic perspective for those who follow the scientific method. It is important to note that it is a heuristic argument that does not necessarily give correct answers; it is a loose guide to choosing the scientific hypothesis which (currently) contains the least number of unproven assumptions. Often, several hypotheses are equally "simple" and Ockham's Razor does not express any preference in such cases.

Now STOP this nonsense about Occam's Razor being a proven theorum RIGHT NOW. It's not a theorum. Period. End of story.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

DaveScot said: "just like the hundreds of scientists that had the courage to sign a statement saying they question mutation/selection's ability to explain the diversity of life"

How many Steves in that list, DaveScot?

And I was refering to evolution theory. Sorry for not being more clear. My fault.

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf

Randall · 23 February 2005

If you read any of the claims you're trying to disprove, you'll see that everyone always used the phrase "most likely." For example, from ts's first post in this thread on Occam's Razor:

For centuries, Occam's Razor was considered to be an effective methodological tool, but not a fact or truism. But information theorists have recently proven that Occam's Razor is a theorem, when expressed in the form "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct". (Bold added)

— ts
So if you were trying to prove that Occam's Razor doesn't absolutely guarentee that the theory with the fewest extraneous assumptions is correct, you might want to look up another philosophy term: straw man.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

your explanaition fits the facts. It fits all the facts - all imaginable facts

— Grey Wolf
It disobeys no known laws of physics. It does not fit all imaginable facts, whatever those might be, as I haven't spent any time trying to imagine facts - imagined facts seems to be the mutation/selectionist's forte - they imagine extrapolations are facts and use the ACLU to enforce their faith when someone trys to point out that it is an extrapolation and not a fact. Design fits the observered facts which mutation/selection does not do. Fitting the observed facts within the confines of the known laws of physics is what hypotheses are supposed to do, in case no one taught you that yet.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

DaveScot, please state what kind of proof I could dig up or observe that would show that the Designer does not exist

GW

Randall · 23 February 2005

So you claim design does not fit all imaginable facts? Give us an example of evidence which, if found, would disprove design. If you want design called a hypothesis (we can talk about being a theory later), it'll need to be falsifiable.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Well no sh@t simpler explanations are more likely to be correct. Duh. That's why Occam's Razor is an enduring, guiding principle in science and engineering. It's still a principle, by the way, not a theory.

Randall · 23 February 2005

There's an information science theory which states "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct." I mean, I posted a link to an article saying just that. And since the theory specifically uses the phrase "more likely," I don't see your problem with it. Is it just that you creationists get really hung up on the word "theory"?

Cubist · 23 February 2005

When asked what ID has to say about the nature of the Designer, IDolators claim that ID doesn't address that question, but, rather, that ID merely confirms that some things were Designed. Very well: taking the IDolators at their word that ID is indeed utterly silent on the question of who/what/when/where/why the Designer was, the core premise of ID works out to be, "Somewhere, sometime, somehow, somebody intelligent did something." Any ID partisan who disagrees with me is welcome to explain what else -- if anything -- ID does have to say about the Designer, over and above "he was intelligent" and "he existed". And if, in fact, ID doesn't have anything to say about the Designer, over and above "he existed and was intelligent", how do you suggest we go about testing the proposition that "somewhere, sometime, somehow, somebody intelligent did something"?
If "somebody intelligent did something" is all ID 'theory' can bring to the table, exactly what good is ID 'theory'? What benefits can ID 'theory' offer science?

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

So you claim design does not fit all imaginable facts? Give us an example of evidence which, if found, would disprove design. If you want design called a hypothesis (we can talk about being a theory later), it'll need to be falsifiable.

— Randall
The salient question is what evidence can disprove mutation/selection since that's already being peddled as a well tested theory.

Randall · 23 February 2005

The salient question is what evidence can disprove mutation/selection since that's already being peddled as a well tested theory.

— DaveScot
Thank you for demonstrating your lack of understanding of the scientific method. I could not have said it better. If you truly think that the existing, well-established theory with lots of evidence to support it (even if you deny the existence of such evidence) needs to continually prove itself against rival not-even-hypotheses which haven't a shread of evidence in their favor, than I can simply say that we are not speaking the same language and may never be. I mean, as I've mentioned earlier, it's hard to make a factual error with regards to science, since all of science's claims are provincial. But you have nonetheless succeeded in saying something categorically wrong. By the very definition of what science is, your claim is wrong. If you cannot see that, nothing I will say can convince you.

Randall · 23 February 2005

The salient question is what evidence can disprove mutation/selection since that's already being peddled as a well tested theory.

— DaveScot
Thank you for demonstrating your lack of understanding of the scientific method. I could not have said it better. If you truly think that the existing, well-established theory with lots of evidence to support it (even if you deny the existence of such evidence) needs to continually prove itself against rival not-even-hypotheses which haven't a shread of evidence in their favor, than I can simply say that we are not speaking the same language and may never be. I mean, as I've mentioned earlier, it's hard to make a factual error with regards to science, since all of science's claims are provincial. But you have nonetheless succeeded in saying something categorically wrong. By the very definition of what science is, your claim is wrong. If you cannot see that, nothing I will say can convince you.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Ruthless

No one is arguing that someone who believes in god or aliens or Elvis can't do science.

No, they are only arguing that we are "flawed" in some sense, like Adam above who wrote "advocates of ID want to understand how things work, but not why."

Most here would argue, however, that one cannot do science using "Intelligent Design" philosophy

Perhaps, though Flint provided a very useful anti-ID essay that discusses how Hoyle used anthropic arguments in nuclear chemistry. Air Bear

I would be interested to know just how you use ID in your work, how it generates hypotheses, how it leads to discoveries. And how it applies to the case of blue sky. I'm not talking about ID as a harmless philosphico-religious diversion that is external to science, but as a positive aid in doing scientific research. (BTW, any graduate of high school physics knows that our eyes are most sensitive to yellow-green, not pure yellow. I hope you're more precise in your professional work.)

I don't use ID in my work, except to the extent that I believe everyone's approach and choice of topics is influenced by their personal beliefs. (For example, I wouldn't do research on morning-after pills, and some won't do research that may have defense related applications.) I don't know that it leads to discoveries. I would have to think about the blue sky---that is related to our atmosphere which is related to many other things that I do believe have design implications, including our moon. So in some sense the blue sky (and especially a sky transparent in a certain frequency range) is tied to design. However, if I were researching the blue sky, I would look at Rayleigh scattering. Thanks for the correction (yellow-green.). You are wrong, however, that any high school physics student knows this. In all the years I taught college physics, I don't think a single student was aware of this fact. I think you are employing hyperbole here.

Randall · 23 February 2005

Stupid Refresh not showing me my new comment.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Randall:

Give us an example of evidence which, if found, would disprove design. If you want design called a hypothesis (we can talk about being a theory later), it'll need to be falsifiable.

Well, for me, proof that either (1) the universe had no beginning or (2) there are an infinite number of parallel universes would destroy ID. Both of these are active areas of research, and so ID is being subjected to possible falsification.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

David Heddle, while I might agree that in your private version of ID those might be possible falsifications (I won't try to attack your version of ID), the general ID hypothesis could simply state that the Designer had created a universe without a beginning or that he had created multiple parallel universes. After all, it is an all powerful Designer.

So those aren't good enough answer to the question I gave DaveScot, sorry. Please note that I am not, at this time, dealing with your version of ID (which I hope you admit is different from the one used by most IDers).

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf

Randall · 23 February 2005

You're making the same mistake that Kent Hovind makes in his $250,000 offer: You're conflating cosmology, astronomy, geology, abiogenesis, and evolution into one large straw-man theory you call evolution. Let's say I believed in deism, that is, that God created the universe but hasn't done anything else in ~13.5 billion years. Would that make me a believer of design theory? Or would that just mean I had let the God of the Gaps handle the biggest gap of them all and let science do the rest? The point is, if design "theory" claims to explain the diversity of life on earth, I want to see an example of something that, if found on earth, would demonstrate that design had nothing to do with the diversity of life. Even if God started the universe, evolution still explains life on earth, and design still explains nothing and is unfalsifiable with respect to the diversity of life.

ts · 23 February 2005

You linked to a wikipedia article that properly calls Occams's Razor a "principle". That does not support your position that it's a proven theorum.

No, it's the parts of that article that do support my position that support my position, such as the discussion of OR having been derived from probability theory, the link to the minimum_message_length article that Randall noted, and the exernal links to information theoretic proofs. Sheesh.

Neither does some obscure paper submitted to Information Processing Letters.

The "obscure paper" was a proof of the theorem -- I think a proof of a theorem supports the position that it's a proven theorem, no matter how "obscure". Here are other papers giving a proof: http://www.cs.helsinki.fi/u/forsblom/occamsrazor_a4.pdf http://l2r.cs.uiuc.edu/~danr/Teaching/CS397-99/Lectures/lec3.ps.gz And in http://szabo.best.vwh.net/complexity.html we find

A formal proof of Occam's Razor and the formula 1 - c1^(|p|-|x|+c2) that gives the probability of the regularity/predictive power of a model p to explain data x, can be found in Li & Vitanyi, _An Introduction to Kolmogorov Complexity_, Springer & Verlag 1993

Li & Vitanyi is not an "obscure paper", it's a leading textbook in information theory.

Now STOP this nonsense about Occam's Razor being a proven theorum RIGHT NOW. It's not a theorum. Period. End of story.

You're a moron.

I suggest you read the article you linked to. Pay particular attention to "the one generating the shortest overall message is more likely to be correct". So it's been proven to be likely.

Yes, "the one generating the shortest overall message is more likely to be correct", which is a restatement of OR, has been proven -- that makes it a theorem. Geez you are stupid.

ts · 23 February 2005

There's an information science theory which states "the predictions of simpler (in an information theoretic sense) explanations are more likely to be correct." I mean, I posted a link to an article saying just that. And since the theory specifically uses the phrase "more likely," I don't see your problem with it. Is it just that you creationists get really hung up on the word "theory"?

They do, but that's not an issue here because Occam's Razor is an information theoretic theorem (or "theorum", for DaveScot), not a theory.

DaveScot · 23 February 2005

Falsifiability is tied to verifiability.

Design can, in principle, be verified by locating a designer.

What can, in principle, verify mutation/selection acting in distant past to accomplish the diversity we see today?

I've seen no documented observations of mutation/selection having the ability to change one closely related group of organisms into something different. Mutated insects remain insects, mutated mammals remain mammals, mutated bacteria remain bacteria, even mutated viruses remain viruses. Mutation has not been observed to make the kind of changes required to turn a bacteria into a bird. It's a huge extrapolation. That's not a well tested theory, it's an educated guess. Design is on equal footing except I'd say it's a more rational guess since intelligent tinkering with genomes is something we're already doing today and all the machines where the origin is known are of intelligent design.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

So I offer legitimate ways to falsify ID, but those don't count. And no matter what I or anyone else provides, you can always say "that doesn't count, because IDers will just say God did it that way."

That is an over simplification. If you chip away at what IDers see as evidence, which for me is the fine tuning universe at large-- not the diversity of life-- then at least the scientic-IDers will withdraw support. Sure, people who do not know science and support ID purely for (as opposed to in conjunction with) religious reasons will never give up. But scientists who are IDers will. And I gave some examples that would falsify it for me.

I could make the same argument about evolution falsifiability. When that question comes up, and after you weed out the absurd ("sure, just find a 200 million year old human fossil") you get things like the discovery of species with no common DNA would falsify evolution. Would it? Or would people just say that life originated more than once? My point is, can you come up with a non absurd finding that would falsify evolution for everybody? Or would would some zealots hang on?

So when you ask for falsifiability of ID, I think you should ask: would a scientific minded ID proponent accept something as falsifying, and forget about those who are just religiously motivated.

Shirley Knott · 23 February 2005

Um, DaveScot, you continue to assert that you can distinguish designed things from non-designed things, and do so reliably. Kindly distinguish the designed portions of the British landscape from the undesigned. When you've completed that, we will discuss various Japanese gardens and natural sites -- you will need to reliably distinguish the designed from the natural.
As you yourself noted, albeit without sufficient strength to the claim, design can be verified by locating a designer.
In fact, this is the ONLY way in which design can be verified. There are no other marks/signs/attributes/features which distinguish the designed from the undesigned.
And you should know that by now. But if you acknowleged and accepted that, you'd have to abandon dembskiism.
All of ID depends on the notion that any given item can be accurately determined to be designed or not without recourse to the designer. This cannot be done, and the myriad false positives that any algorithmic approach to determination of design produces is in and of itself sufficent warrant to dispose of dembskiism on the trash-heap of pseudo-intellectual bs.

regards,
Shirley Knott

Russell · 23 February 2005

proving :
(1) the universe had no beginning or
(2) there are an infinite number of parallel universes

... are practicable experimental proposals for disproving ID, but finding out-of-place fossils is absurd?

OK.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Russell:

proving : (1) the universe had no beginning or (2) there are an infinite number of parallel universes . . . are practicable experimental proposals for disproving ID, but finding out-of-place fossils is absurd? OK.

Yes, because those are precisely hot areas of cosmology. But asking to find a 200 million year old human fossil is absurd, and using that as an example of falsifying evolution weakens the case. You need something plausible. If only a miracle can falsify evolution, then evolution is not falsifiable.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

Mutated insects remain insects, mutated mammals remain mammals, mutated bacteria remain bacteria, even mutated viruses remain viruses.

So you will be able to find me, then, bird fossils predating the dinosaurs, won't you DaveScot? Since they can't evolve outside their "kinds" (your word, not mine - not in this last post, but in a previous one), they must have been around since the start, I assume. Or maybe you postulate separate creations. Of course, none of that actually fits the data, but that hasn't stopped you so far. I'm curious, what rhetoric do you use to ignore inter-genera (maybe even inter-Orders) fossils like the dinosaur/bird Archaeopteryx? You started saying that species remain fixed. Now you're up to genus. Of course, when change between genera becomes obvious you'll climb up to phylums, then kingdoms ("plants remain plants, animals remain animals"). And later "multicelled/single celled", I'm sure. I also wonder, why do you think that past certain ages we stop finding animals with backbones? Given that it's impossible (according to you) for a cold blooded animal to become warm blooded, and later develop mamaries, how the hell did any of them develop a backbone? This is all rhetorical questions, of course. The fact remains that evolution fits the data, while all you propose is an unverifiable, unfalsifiable statement of faith. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf

GCT · 23 February 2005

DaveScot wrote:

Because we can assume that the designer of biological systems is working within the constraints of physical laws just like the designer of the computer you used to write your little missive.

So, DaveScot, are you positing something about the designer? It would be the first time I've ever seen anyone do that, since the IDers at the DI specifically say that ID makes no inferences about who/what the designer is. You seem to claim here, however, that the designer is constrained, and not omnipotent. That raises some questions for me. 1. When and how did this designer interact with our world? How do they do it with no one noticing (especially if they are constrained by physical laws?) 2. If the designers are not deities, then they must be very complex individuals themselves. Does it not follow that they also had a designer? Wouldn't it also follow that the designer of our designer had a designer? At what point do we say that the designer must be supernatural? 3. Since there is much design theory tied into the "design" of the physical laws of this universe, do you refute those arguments? To David Heddle, I would have to agree with GWW. Why couldn't the designer have created infinite universes? Why couldn't the designer have operated in a universe without a beginning? Besides, the IDist could easily say, "The designer stepped in and made all of our observations make it appear as if the universe had no beginning or that there are parallel universes, but that's really not the case and ID is still valid." The whole point to the exercise is that explaining things by a supernatural cause is really no explanation at all because you can not prove nor disprove the supernatural.

GCT · 23 February 2005

Oops, it appears I meant to say that I agree with Grey Wolf (GW) not GWW.

ts · 23 February 2005

Falsifiability is tied to verifiability.

— troll DaveScot
Uh, yeah, it's "tied" to it in the sense that Popper showed that science operates via the former and not the latter. Your claims are so moronic that it's not entirely implausible that you're pretending to be a creationist to make them look bad. And the other troll isn't any better:

Give us an example of evidence which, if found, would disprove design. If you want design called a hypothesis (we can talk about being a theory later), it'll need to be falsifiable. Well, for me, proof that either (1) the universe had no beginning or (2) there are an infinite number of parallel universes

— troll David Heddle
Proofs aren't evidence. Scientific hypotheses are empirical, and are falsified by empirical observations that contradict their empirical predictions. For falsifiability to obtain, the empirical predictions must be testable in practice so as to produce the observations that might falsify the hypothesis. "the universe had a beginning" and "there are not an infinite number of parallel universes" are neither predictions of design nor are they empirical, and proofs for or against these propositions are neither empirical nor contradict design, nor are they obtainable. You might as well say that a proof that no more than 27 angels can dance on the tip of a pin would falsify design, thereby relieving yourself of any burden of validating your hypothesis through testing.

I could make the same argument about evolution falsifiability. When that question comes up, and after you weed out the absurd ("sure, just find a 200 million year old human fossil") you get things like the discovery of species with no common DNA would falsify evolution.

Evolution is falsifiable because tests for its many predictions could have yielded contradictory results, but they didn't -- evolution is falsifiable but not, in fact, false -- it has passed the test. Such predictions include quite non-absurd things such as # Darwin predicted that precursors to the trilobite would be found in pre-Silurian rocks. He was correct: they were subsequently found. # Similarly, Darwin predicted that Precambrian fossils would be found. He wrote in 1859 that the total absence of fossils in Precambrian rock was "inexplicable" and that the lack might "be truly urged as a valid argument" against his theory. When such fossils were found, starting in 1953, it turned out that they had been abundant all along. They were just so small that it took a microscope to see them. # There are two kinds of whales: those with teeth, and those that strain microscopic food out of seawater with baleen. It was predicted that a transitional whale must have once existed, which had both teeth and baleen. Such a fossil has since been found. # Evolution predicts that we will find fossil series. # Evolution predicts that the fossil record will show different populations of creatures at different times. For example, it predicts we will never find fossils of trilobites with fossils of dinosaurs, since their geological time-lines don't overlap. The "Cretaceous seaway" deposits in Colorado and Wyoming contain almost 90 different kinds of ammonites, but no one has ever found two different kinds of ammonite together in the same rockbed. # Evolution predicts that animals on distant islands will appear closely related to animals on the closest mainland, and that the older and more distant the island, the more distant the relationship. # Evolution predicts that features of living things will fit a hierarchical arrangement of relatedness. For example, arthropods all have chitinous exoskeleton, hemocoel, and jointed legs. Insects have all these plus head-thorax-abdomen body plan and 6 legs. Flies have all that plus two wings and halteres. Calypterate flies have all that plus a certain style of antennae, wing veins, and sutures on the face and back. You will never find the distinguishing features of calypterate flies on a non-fly, much less on a non-insect or non-arthropod. # Evolution predicts that simple, valuable features will evolve independently, and that when they do, they will most likely have differences not relevant to function. For example, the eyes of molluscs, arthropods, and vertebrates are extremely different, and ears can appear on any of at least ten different locations on different insects. # In 1837, a Creationist reported that during a pig's fetal development, part of the incipient jawbone detaches and becomes the little bones of the middle ear. After Evolution was invented, it was predicted that there would be a transitional fossil, of a reptile with a spare jaw joint right near its ear. A whole series of such fossils has since been found - the cynodont therapsids. # It was predicted that humans must have an intermaxillary bone, since other mammals do. The adult human skull consists of bones that have fused together, so you can't tell one way or the other in an adult. An examination of human embryonic development showed that an intermaxillary bone is one of the things that fuses to become your upper jaw. # From my junk DNA example I predict that three specific DNA patterns will be found at 9 specific places in the genome of white-tailed deer, but none of the three patterns will be found anywhere in the spider monkey genome. # In 1861, the first Archaeopteryx fossil was found. It was clearly a primitive bird with reptilian features. But, the fossil's head was very badly preserved. In 1872 Ichthyornis and Hesperornis were found. Both were clearly seabirds, but to everyone's astonishment, both had teeth. It was predicted that if we found a better-preserved Archaeopteryx, it too would have teeth. In 1877, a second Archaeopteryx was found, and the prediction turned out to be correct. # Almost all animals make Vitamin C inside their bodies. It was predicted that humans are descended from creatures that could do this, and that we had lost this ability. (There was a loss-of-function mutation, which didn't matter because our high-fruit diet was rich in Vitamin C.) When human DNA was studied, scientists found a gene which is just like the Vitamin C gene in dogs and cats. However, our copy has been turned off. # In "The Origin Of Species" (1859), Darwin said: "If it could be proved that any part of the structure of any one species had been formed for the exclusive good of another species, it would annihilate my theory, for such could not have been produced through natural selection." Chapter VI, Difficulties Of The Theory This challenge has not been met. In the ensuing 140 years, no such thing has been found. Plants give away nectar and fruit, but they get something in return. Taking care of other members of one's own species (kin selection) doesn't count, so ants and bees (and mammalian milk) don't count. # Darwin pointed out that the Madagascar Star orchid has a spur 30 centimeters (about a foot) long, with a puddle of nectar at the bottom. Now, evolution says that nectar isn't free. Creatures that drink it pay for it, by carrying pollen away to another orchid. For that to happen, the creature must rub against the top of the spur. So, Darwin concluded that the spur had evolved its length as an arms race. Some creature had a way to reach deeply without shoving itself hard against the pollen-producing parts. Orchids with longer spurs would be more likely to spread their pollen, so Darwin's gradualistic scenario applied. The spur would evolve to be longer and longer. From the huge size, the creature must have evolved in return, reaching deeper and deeper. So, he predicted in 1862 that Madagascar has a species of hawkmoth with a tongue just slightly shorter than 30 cm. The creature that pollinated that orchid was not learned until 1902, forty years later. It was indeed a moth, and it had a 25 cm tongue. And in 1988 it was proven that moth-pollinated short-spurred orchids did set less seed than long ones. # A thousand years ago, just about every remote island on the planet had a species of flightless bird. Evolution explains this by saying that flying creatures are particularly able to establish themselves on remote islands. Some birds, living in a safe place where there is no need to make sudden escapes, will take the opportunity to give up on flying. Hence, Evolution predicts that each flightless bird species arose on the island that it was found on. So, Evolution predicts that no two islands would have the same species of flightless bird. Now that all the world's islands have been visited, we know that this was a correct prediction. # The "same" protein in two related species is usually slightly different. A protein is made from a sequence of amino acids, and the two species have slightly different sequences. We can measure the sequences of many species, and cladistics has a mathematical procedure which tells us if these many sequences imply one common ancestral sequence. Evolution predicts that these species are all descended from a common ancestral species, and that the ancestral species used the ancestral sequence. This has been done for pancreatic ribonuclease in ruminants. (Cows, sheep, goats, deer and giraffes are ruminants.) Measurements were made on various ruminants. An ancestral sequence was computed, and protein molecules with that sequence were manufactured. When sequences are chosen at random, we usually wind up with a useless goo. However, the manufactured molecules were biologically active substances. Furthermore, they did exactly what a pancreatic ribonuclease is supposed to do - namely, digest ribonucleic acids. # An animal's bones contain oxygen atoms from the water it drank while growing. And, fresh water and salt water can be told apart by their slightly different mixture of oxygen isotopes. (This is because fresh water comes from water that evaporated out of the ocean. Lighter atoms evaporate more easily than heavy ones do, so fresh water has fewer of the heavy atoms.) Therefore, it should be possible to analyze an aquatic creature's bones, and tell whether it grew up in fresh water or in the ocean. This has been done, and it worked. We can distinguish the bones of river dolphins from the bones of killer whales. Now for the prediction. We have fossils of various early whales. Since whales are mammals, evolution predicts that they evolved from land animals. And, the very earliest of those whales would have lived in fresh water, while they were evolving their aquatic skills. Therefore, the oxygen isotope ratios in their fossils should be like the isotope ratios in modern river dolphins. It's been measured, and the prediction was correct. The two oldest species in the fossil record - Pakicetus and Ambulocetus - lived in fresh water. Rodhocetus, Basilosaurus and the others all lived in salt water.

Bob Maurus · 23 February 2005

Shirley Knott

"As you yourself noted, albeit without sufficient strength to the claim, design can be verified by locating a designer.
In fact, this is the ONLY way in which design can be verified. There are no other marks/signs/attributes/features which distinguish the designed from the undesigned."

Actually, I don't think that's the case, though the reality doesn't bode well for IDers.

It is quite an easy thing to distinguish design in non self-replicating CSI exhibiting manufactured objects. Moreover, in every instance where the identity of the designer is known, that designer is known to have been a human. The logic of ID would draw an inference from that knowledge, and claim it proves that biological organisms were designed by humans. ;>)

Tara Smith · 23 February 2005

Because we can assume that the designer of biological systems is working within the constraints of physical laws just like the designer of the computer you used to write your little missive.

— DaveScot
Why can we assume that?

I have designed enough complex computer hardware to recognize design when I see it. I may not know the design team but the design is apparent nonetheless.

— DaveScot
This is a poor argument that was already soundly refuted in the discussion of Behe's recent editorial. The rest of your post is based on this faulty premise.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

Wow! Nice post, ts. Someone should turn it into a main page post or even a TO FAQ. I'm always at a loss when I try to think of predictions of evolution. I should at least jot down the post, so I can use it for future reference.

Kudos!

Grey Wolf who is not, indeed, GWW

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

TS: My exchange with you has long-since passed the "pearl before swine" threshold. I suggest you read more books (say, on the logic of scientific inquiry and the sense/reference distinction).

Until the next thread, farewell.

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

I couldn't resist one parting shot: Curious that the disagreement between the Einsteinian and quantum mechanical explanations of gravity (the warping of space and the exchange of gravitons respectively) wasn't solved simply by an appeal to Ockham's Razor. Someone should tell the physicists their wasting a lot of time over something that could be decided by appealing to a simple principle.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

GCT,

Why couldn't the designer have created infinite universes? Why couldn't the designer have operated in a universe without a beginning? Besides, the IDist could easily say, "The designer stepped in and made all of our observations make it appear as if the universe had no beginning or that there are parallel universes, but that's really not the case and ID is still valid." The whole point to the exercise is that explaining things by a supernatural cause is really no explanation at all because you can not prove nor disprove the supernatural.

I'm an IDer, and I just told you what would falsify it for me, and your argument is that "no it wouldn't falsify it for you." But, sorry, it (parallel universes) would. Why? Because it is the fine tuning of this universe that does it for me. If there are infinite universes, then the argument that "we just happen to be in a lucky one, otherwise we wouldn't be here talking about it" becomes very plausible--i.e. I.D. is dead. Non-Scientist known as ts, You are ignorant and rude, a bad combination.

For falsifiability to obtain, the empirical predictions must be testable in practice so as to produce the observations that might falsify the hypothesis. "the universe had a beginning" and "there are not an infinite number of parallel universes" are neither predictions of design nor are they empirical, and proofs for or against these propositions are neither empirical nor contradict design, nor are they obtainable. You might as well say that a proof that no more than 27 angels can dance on the tip of a pin would falsify design, thereby relieving yourself of any burden of validating your hypothesis through testing.

Hawking, for one, is working on theories in which the universe has no beginning. If his theory makes unique predictions that are verified, it would falsify ID for me. Many are working on theories of parallel universes. If their theories make unique predictions that are verified, it would falsify ID for me. You want to tell all these cosmologists that what they reaseach is akin to asking how many angels dance on the head of a pin? Let me say it one more time: Highly respected scientists, including giants in the field like Hawking, are actively conducting research that would, if they can experimentally confirm their theories, falsify ID (for me, I can only speak for myself.) So the complaint that ID is not falsifiable is false. And there are actually many other examples that would falsify ID for me, and they also are active areas of research in cosmology and astronomy. I just picked two examples. If you want more, just ask.

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

Parting shot #2: An even more curious fact is that physicists are now devising an absurdly complicated theory, string theory, to replace quantum mechanics and general relativity. It posits many more entities than either, e.g., 7 extra dimensions, strings, etc. And that with all of the experimental success of the two preceeding theories. Ockham must be rolling in his grave.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

An even more curious fact is that physicists are now devising an absurdly complicated theory, string theory, to replace quantum mechanics and general relativity. It posits many more entities than either, e.g., 7 extra dimensions, strings, etc. And that with all of the experimental success of the two preceeding theories. Ockham must be rolling in his grave

As I understand it (which I admit is not much, so this will be horribly simplificated), both QT and GR fail to predict all known observations. BUT they manage to between them, explain almost all observations. Thus, scientists are trying to combine them so that we get a quantum relativity theory that explains everything the other two explain. This means that it will be horribly complicated, but it'll be the simplest that explains the facts - which is what Ockham wanted. No rolling in graves. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

An even more curious fact is that physicists are now devising an absurdly complicated theory, string theory, to replace quantum mechanics and general relativity. It posits many more entities than either, e.g., 7 extra dimensions, strings, etc. And that with all of the experimental success of the two preceeding theories. Ockham must be rolling in his grave

As I understand it (which I admit is not much, so this will be horribly simplificated), both QT and GR fail to predict all known observations. BUT they manage to between them, explain almost all observations. Thus, scientists are trying to combine them so that we get a quantum relativity theory that explains everything the other two explain. This means that it will be horribly complicated, but it'll be the simplest that explains the facts - which is what Ockham wanted. No rolling in graves. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

...both QT and GR fail to predict all known observations. BUT they manage to between them, explain almost all observations. Thus, scientists are trying to combine them so that we get a quantum relativity theory that explains everything the other two explain.

— Grey Wolf
Close, but not quite correct. General relativity explains all "large" phenomena, i.e., larger than the realm of particles. Quantum mechanics explains all "small" phenomena. Together, they account for all phenomena. In addition, they both have a perfect predictive track-record. The problem is that they are inconsistent with each other (e.g., they explain gravity in different ways). The simple solution would be to grant that the large and small simply play by different rules. String theory is an enormously complicated attempt to bring both under the same set of rules.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

I actually wouldn't call string theory complicated, I'd call it difficult. There is a difference. It is simple and elegant to write down, but the mathematics required to work with it is difficult--and in some ways has to be invented.

Colin · 23 February 2005

Thanks for some great posts, ts. I really enjoy it when informed people put up solid information - I can call the time I spend here educational, instead of just entertainment, thanks to people like you.

racingiron · 23 February 2005

The salient question is what evidence can disprove mutation/selection since that's already being peddled as a well tested theory.

— DaveScot
I find it hard to believe that you've never before been directed to the "29+ Evidences for Macroevolution" in the TalkOrigins archive, which contains numerous falsifications. However, I don't doubt that you refuse to read it. http://www.talkorigins.org/faqs/comdesc/

Wow! Nice post, ts. Someone should turn it into a main page post or even a TO FAQ. I'm always at a loss when I try to think of predictions of evolution. I should at least jot down the post, so I can use it for future reference.

— Grey Wolf
It's already on a web page that ts referenced earlier (that the ID folks were too busy with their research to look at, apparently). See link in Comment #17514 above.

Russell · 23 February 2005

Let me say it one more time: Highly respected scientists, including giants in the field like Hawking, are actively conducting research that would, if they can experimentally confirm their theories, falsify ID

Which strikes me as a whole lot less practicable than the list that ts presented for testing various aspects of evolution. We know you dislike ts, but putting that aside for a moment, what about that list?

Also, to paraphrase you: the out-of-place fossils and DNA sequences would be enough to falsify "evolution" for me. Why is that criterion any more "absurd" than your personalized criteria for ID falsification?

ts · 23 February 2005

I couldn't resist one parting shot: Curious that the disagreement between the Einsteinian and quantum mechanical explanations of gravity (the warping of space and the exchange of gravitons respectively) wasn't solved simply by an appeal to Ockham's Razor. Someone should tell the physicists their wasting a lot of time over something that could be decided by appealing to a simple principle.

It's not "curious" at all -- what a stupid comment. Ockham's Razor is never the basis for selecting between competing theories; that's done by hypothesis testing -- one or the other theory is falsified.

GCT · 23 February 2005

David Heddle wrote:

I'm an IDer, and I just told you what would falsify it for me, and your argument is that "no it wouldn't falsify it for you." But, sorry, it (parallel universes) would. Why? Because it is the fine tuning of this universe that does it for me. If there are infinite universes, then the argument that "we just happen to be in a lucky one, otherwise we wouldn't be here talking about it" becomes very plausible---i.e. I.D. is dead.

But, why would it not be valid to say that the designer fooled us into thinking we saw parallel universes? Why would it not be valid to say that the designer made all those universes? Perhaps the designer created life on all the parallel universes, life that is different and "fine-tuned" to the laws of each universe. If you really understood the implications of ID, you would realize that it is NOT falsifiable, because the supernatural can always bend the natural to its will.

ts · 23 February 2005

It's already on a web page that ts referenced earlier (that the ID folks were too busy with their research to look at, apparently). See link in Comment #17514 above.

Right. I'm glad someone is paying attention. I did after all preface that URL with "Here are some specific predictions of evolution".

ts · 23 February 2005

Let me say it one more time: Highly respected scientists, including giants in the field like Hawking, are actively conducting research that would, if they can experimentally confirm their theories, falsify ID (for me, I can only speak for myself.) So the complaint that ID is not falsifiable is false.

No, it is true; "ID is falsifiable for troll David Heddle" is not "ID is falsifiable". A hypothesis is not falsified by you ceasing to believe it, it is falsified by an empirical observation that contradicts one of its predictions. Better luck next time, troll.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Russell: The out of place fossils are absurd (as a falsifiability test) because there is no chance of it happening. I'll use an anology I've used before. It would be like saying that gravity is falsifiable: just show that something doesn't fall if you drop it. If that were the only way you could falsify Newtonian gravity visa vis General Relativity, then Newtonian gravity would be unfalsifiable. As for the list TS put up, I am not an expert, but I have no problem with accepting the fact that evolution has made successful predictions. That doesn't free it from further verification. Nothing we do as scientists is free from that requirement. GCT:

But, why would it not be valid to say that the designer fooled us into thinking we saw parallel universes? Why would it not be valid to say that the designer made all those universes? Perhaps the designer created life on all the parallel universes, life that is different and "fine-tuned" to the laws of each universe. If you really understood the implications of ID, you would realize that it is NOT falsifiable, because the supernatural can always bend the natural to its will.

I just told you what would falsify it! It's amazing to me that (a) I am and IDer, (b) I gave plausible outcomes based on ongoing research that would falsify ID for me, only to find (c) that you are telling me that, no, it wouldn't falsify it! If: (1) A universe with no beginning is demonstrated (and such models are being studied) or (2) Parallel universes are demonstrated (and such models are being studied.) I will pay for a front page post on PT where I renounce ID. So exactly how is it not falsifiable? Non-scientist TS: I will no longer respond to your garbage. It took me a while to reach the same point with GWW--and I find it sad--but alas here we are.

Randall · 23 February 2005

The reason that a quantum gravity theory is "better" than saying "GM for large things, QM for small things" is that some observations (black holes, for example) involve both small things and large gravities, and thus can't be properly explained by either GM or QM. If a quantum gravity theory can be formulated which properly explains those observations, then it will have more explanatory power than both GM and QM combined, and thus be favored even by Occam's Razor (since of all the hypotheses which explain all the data, it will be the simplest). Besides, everyone here has agreed that Occam's Razor gives you likelihoods, not certainties.

GCT · 23 February 2005

David Heddle, a couple points.

First, TS has a point. Falsifiable for David Heddle is not the same as ID is falsifiable.

Second, am I to understand that the sole reason you support ID is because of Dembski's (I think it was him) argument of the fine tuning of the universe? I believe the argument goes that this universe was fine tuned so much that we would not exist if anything were slightly different, therefore the universe must have been designed giving rise to us?

If that is your argument, do you have any problem with abiogenesis? Do you dispute evolution? Evolution has nothing what-so-ever to do with the formation of the universe, so you shouldn't have a problem with it.

I also don't understand why you would reject my ideas of how a supernatural being could spoof us or could have made infinite universes, which would still support ID. That's the point of it all. Your version of ID relies on a supernatural being that is beyond time and space by definition, else this being could not have designed the universe, which includes time and space. Therefore, this supernatural being is not bound by the laws of time and space (hence the supernatural nature of it.) This being should be able to warp time/space and make it appear to us that there are infinite parallel universes, should this being wish that to be so. All I'm doing is keeping ID alive, even if it isn't alive for you, should we discover parallel universes or an ever-existing universe. The fact that you can't make that jump shows that you have drawn an arbitrary line in the sand, but the problem with that is that once you start drawing arbitrary lines, anyone else can do the same thing.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

David Heddle, since you're not an official spokesman for ID, the fact that you think up two private falsifying test for your version of ID is useless. The "mainstream" ID cannot be falsified for the reasons above: it uses an omnipotent designer that can be used to explaine everything. As I said back at the beggining of this subthread, I am not interested in discussing your ID since true or false, it is not IDers' ID, just your own private hypothesis.

Are you willing to admit that Dembski's version of ID (with an all powerful designer that hides the Christian God) is unfalsifiable?

Hope that helps,

Grey Wolf

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

So you pose a question (how to falsify ID) that cannot be answered because you can always respond (a) no, your designer could have done it that way or (b) you don't speak for everyone. Then why ask the question?

Second, am I to understand that the sole reason you support ID is because of Dembski's (I think it was him) argument of the fine tuning of the universe? I believe the argument goes that this universe was fine tuned so much that we would not exist if anything were slightly different, therefore the universe must have been designed giving rise to us? If that is your argument, do you have any problem with abiogenesis? Do you dispute evolution? Evolution has nothing what-so-ever to do with the formation of the universe, so you shouldn't have a problem with it.

I have never read Dembski. Your characterization of fine tuning is close enough. As for abiogenesis and evolution, I am ambivalent, and would not have a problem with theistic evolution. Grey Wolf:

David Heddle, since you're not an official spokesman for ID, the fact that you think up two private falsifying test for your version of ID is useless. The "mainstream" ID cannot be falsified for the reasons above: it uses an omnipotent designer that can be used to explaine everything. As I said back at the beggining of this subthread, I am not interested in discussing your ID since true or false, it is not IDers' ID, just your own private hypothesis. Are you willing to admit that Dembski's version of ID (with an all powerful designer that hides the Christian God) is unfalsifiable?

Since nobody is an official spokesman for ID or evolution, this is just a red herring. As discussed above, you have asked a question that can't be answered, since you refuse to accept an IDer's answer. So why ask? I do not know Dembski's version ID, so I cannot answer.

ts · 23 February 2005

Parting shot #2: An even more curious fact is that physicists are now devising an absurdly complicated theory, string theory, to replace quantum mechanics and general relativity. It posits many more entities than either, e.g., 7 extra dimensions, strings, etc. And that with all of the experimental success of the two preceeding theories. Ockham must be rolling in his grave.

Sigh. Quantum mechanics and general relativity are mutually exclusive, so they don't, together, form a coherent theory. And "7 extra dimensions" are not the sort of "entities" that OR refers to. String theory is an attempt to explain all the physical forces and particles within one mathematical model. It is not "absurdly complicated" in the information theoretic sense that is relevant to OR. In string theory, all the particles of physics are manifestations of the excitation of a single construct, a string. It's difficult to discern just what point you're making, or what you think you're refuting. As I have demonstrated, Occam's Razor is a theorem in information theory -- given the citations I provided, this is disputable only by fools. That it is a theorem has no bearing on which physical theories are or are not correct or what physicists might be devising or what Ockham is doing in his grave. All it says is that -- as a matter of mathematical fact -- simpler explanations are more likely to be correct -- to not make false predictions. This has no bearing on string theory, which is AFAIK currently the only known candidate for a consistent ToE. And even if it weren't, that would be no reason not to explore it, since scientists explore many different ideas in the hope that one pans out. What Occam's Razor is aimed at is taking a theory and removing from it chaff that isn't needed to explain existing observation (chaff like "design"). This was never merely "aesthetic" -- more compact theories are easier to manage and take less intellectual resources. They are also less likely to lead one astray or down rabbit holes -- which informally relates to what the proof demonstrates -- that tacking on superfluous explanatory entities overspecifies the theory and makes it more likely to result in erroneous predictions. That's a proven fact.

ts · 23 February 2005

Parting shot #2: An even more curious fact is that physicists are now devising an absurdly complicated theory, string theory, to replace quantum mechanics and general relativity. It posits many more entities than either, e.g., 7 extra dimensions, strings, etc. And that with all of the experimental success of the two preceeding theories. Ockham must be rolling in his grave.

Sigh. Quantum mechanics and general relativity are mutually exclusive, so they don't, together, form a coherent theory. And "7 extra dimensions" are not the sort of "entities" that OR refers to. String theory is an attempt to explain all the physical forces and particles within one mathematical model. It is not "absurdly complicated" in the information theoretic sense that is relevant to OR. In string theory, all the particles of physics are manifestations of the excitation of a single construct, a string. It's difficult to discern just what point you're making, or what you think you're refuting. As I have demonstrated, Occam's Razor is a theorem in information theory -- given the citations I provided, this is disputable only by fools. That it is a theorem has no bearing on which physical theories are or are not correct or what physicists might be devising or what Ockham is doing in his grave. All it says is that -- as a matter of mathematical fact -- simpler explanations are more likely to be correct -- to not make false predictions. This has no bearing on string theory, which is AFAIK currently the only known candidate for a consistent ToE. And even if it weren't, that would be no reason not to explore it, since scientists explore many different ideas in the hope that one pans out. What Occam's Razor is aimed at is taking a theory and removing from it chaff that isn't needed to explain existing observation (chaff like "design"). This was never merely "aesthetic" -- more compact theories are easier to manage and take less intellectual resources. They are also less likely to lead one astray or down rabbit holes -- which informally relates to what the proof demonstrates -- that tacking on superfluous explanatory entities overspecifies the theory and makes it more likely to result in erroneous predictions. That's a proven fact.

ts · 23 February 2005

So you pose a question (how to falsify ID) that cannot be answered because you can always respond (a) no, your designer could have done it that way or (b) you don't speak for everyone. Then why ask the question?

To impose the proper rhetorical burden. The question must be answered with either an empirical prediction of ID and an empirical test of the prediction, or a concession that it isn't falsifiable. Them's the rules, troll.

Russell · 23 February 2005

The out of place fossils are absurd (as a falsifiability test) because there is no chance of it happening... As for the list TS put up, I am not an expert, but I have no problem with accepting the fact that evolution has made successful predictions. That doesn't free it from further verification. Nothing we do as scientists is free from that requirement.

And round and round we go. The reason "there is no chance of it happening" You seem to be invoking two arguments: 1. out of place fossils (and DNA sequences?) are an "absurd" test because "there is no chance of it happening", and 2. The detailed list of tests mentioned above doesn't count, because they've already been done, and - apparently - a scientific theory is not scientific any more the moment no one has a practicable proposal for falsifying it yet again. These seem to me to boil down to the same reason. What would be so absurd about expecting human fossils in the preCambrian before evolution theory prohibited it? And the DNA sequences? Why is that absurd? Your gravity analogy doesn't work for me. I want to test an explanation for an observation, not test its reproducibility.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Russell,

I agree, no more point to the round and round. All I can say is, if you want to damage the case for evolution, preach that it can be falsified if you find a pre Cambrian human fossil.

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

And "7 extra dimensions" are not the sort of "entities" that OR refers to.

— TS
. LOL. Your an expert on scholastic ideas of being too. Wow, you're quite the Renaissance man. Let me assure you that Ockham's use of "entity" is broad enough to inlcude "dimensions."

As I have demonstrated, Occam’s Razor is a theorem in information theory — given the citations I provided, this is disputable only by fools.

Let me get this straight. Because you can type in a search phrase on Google and come back with a reference, this somehow makes your conclusion only disputable by fools. I'm reminded of a statement Milhouse made to Bart: "If it's written in a book, it must be true." It's amazing that your opponents don't immediately concede in the face of such force. I shall continue talking with you for no other reason than your good for a laugh.

ts · 23 February 2005

I could make the same argument about evolution falsifiability. When that question comes up, and after you weed out the absurd ("sure, just find a 200 million year old human fossil") you get things like the discovery of species with no common DNA would falsify evolution.

— lying conniving troll David Heddle
Contrary to your lie, you can't make the same argument, because there are numerous ways in which evolution can be falsified, as I listed, none of which are "absurd" (nor is finding a 200 million year old human fossil since, if the earth is as old as it appears, and humans have not evolved, we should find human fossils throughout the ages, including 200 million years ago). And when you are given that list, to rebut your claim, you don't retract it but rather offer some irrelevant twaddle about "That doesn't free it from further verification". And when that is challenged, you offer further irrelevant twaddle about "All I can say is, if you want to damage the case for evolution, preach that it can be falsified if you find a pre Cambrian human fossil". No, that's not all you can say -- you can acknowledge that your original claim that you could make the same argument about evolution falsifiability was false. But instead you dodge and avoid, because you're a lying conniving troll who doesn't follow the basic tenets of good faith debate.

ts · 23 February 2005

LOL. Your an expert on scholastic ideas of being too. Wow, you're quite the Renaissance man. Let me assure you that Ockham's use of "entity" is broad enough to inlcude "dimensions."

Let me assure you that you are an ignorant idiot. An 11-dimensional model is only one model. Next you'll be telling us that each symbol in the description of the theory is an "entity".

Let me get this straight. Because you can type in a search phrase on Google and come back with a reference, this somehow makes your conclusion only disputable by fools.

When I provide URLs to three papers each of which contains a proof of Occam's Razor, and a reference to a leading textbook in information theory that contains a proof of Occam's Razor, then indeed only a fool would dispute that it's a theorem.

I'm reminded of a statement Milhouse made to Bart: "If it's written in a book, it must be true."

Your principle is apparently "If Michael Finley denies it then it must be false". It's true because it's a proof, you moronic troll.

Henry J · 23 February 2005

Re "Curious that the disagreement between the Einsteinian and quantum mechanical explanations of gravity (the warping of space and the exchange of gravitons respectively) wasn't solved simply by an appeal to Ockham's Razor. Someone should tell the physicists their wasting a lot of time over something that could be decided by appealing to a simple principle."

I didn't know graviton theory was developed far enough to be used as a working theory?

Henry

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

Heddle said:

Since nobody is an official spokesman for ID or evolution, this is just a red herring. As discussed above, you have asked a question that can't be answered, since you refuse to accept an IDer's answer. So why ask?

I asked the question to DaveScot, because he is a classical creationist who would reveal his lack of ground if he were to try and answer it. As in all the previous times I have asked him any such question, he has fled and refused to face the challenge - demonstrating once more that he has no theory or even viable hypothesis. And you're very wrong - if I came out and said "evolution theory says that the more you use your legs, the better the legs of children will be, so a falsifiable proof would be to find that this isn't true" you could point out that I was stating lamarkian evolution, not the currently accepted dawirnist evolution theory. You're doing essentially the same - you call your own private theory "ID" and think you can answer questions posed to other people who are defending an ID theory which is incompatible with yours. Well, sorry to put it like this, but I wasn't speaking to you, so your answers are useless. They're as useful to the conversation as if you joined a conversation on InfraDarkness* and claimed that your view on the finetunning proved ID exists. Apples and oranges, they have got nothing in common even if they share the acronym. You have admitted you haven't read Dembski. I assume you haven't read Behe either. Thus, you're in no position to defend their theory - unless you now tell me that you know what their ID actually states, and your answers are defending this and not your own private ID (henceforth, DHID). But since you're aching to get questions, answer this: given that your Intelligent Designer is God, why do you state that He couldn't have created multiple universes? or even a universe without a beginning? (I am assuming that you do equate your designer with the Christian God, since you have stated repeatedly that you are a Christian, or at least implied it heavily). Hope that helps, Grey Wolf *To learn more about InfraDarkness, read DiscWorld. Particularly, "The Truth". All books in the series by Terry Pratchett. I would suggest that both Heddle and Scot try out the experiment to see InfraDarkness, since they're at it.

Steve Reuland · 23 February 2005

The salient question is what evidence can disprove mutation/selection since that's already being peddled as a well tested theory.

— DaveScot
Quite simply, if mutation and selection were empirically shown to be incapable of producing adaptations, that would disprove it. As it turns out, mutation and selection is nothing short of amazing in its ability to produce adaptations, and this holds true whether we're talking about domestic plants and animals, insect pests, pathogenic bacteria, individual proteins, viruses, computer simulations, etc, and so on, and so forth. Of course I suppose it could be Amoeba duria using its super-powers behind the scene, but I'll leave that experiment to you.

GCT · 23 February 2005

David Heddle,
The point I am making is that you have not shown ID to be falsifiable. Let's explore this further.

You believe that some designer made the universe and made it just so so that we can come to life and be human. Who is this designer? May I assume it is some deity, most likely the Xtian god?

OK, now supposed someone proves that parallel universes exist. Does this disprove ID? Well, to you it does, or does it? Doesn't it really disprove your philosophical idea that we are a special creation of your deity placed in this special universe? Was that really a scientific point that you held that was falsified, or was it philosophical? My discussion of the arbitrary line in the sand was to say that you drew a philosophical line in the sand, which is non-scientific. The reason that finding parallel universes would destroy ID for you is that it is philosophically held by you, not scientific. Therefore, you have not shown ID to be a scientific hypothesis that is falsifiable. You have only shown us what would make you change your personal philosophy.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

But since you're aching to get questions, answer this: given that your Intelligent Designer is God, why do you state that He couldn't have created multiple universes? or even a universe without a beginning? (I am assuming that you do equate your designer with the Christian God, since you have stated repeatedly that you are a Christian, or at least implied it heavily).

I am not saying he couldn't. But in that case there would be no evidence for his design. GCT, Sorry I don't get it. (BTW, I never claimed ID as a scientific theory.) This business of "my" version of ID is nonsense. First of all, why do Dembski and Behe (I have read some of Behe) own ID? The ID in the book The Privileged Planet is very similar to what I believe. They also list many ways that ID can be falsified. Does that not count because they (Gonzalez and Richards) are not Dembski or Behe? Or Hugh Ross? I agree with much of what he writes--but falsfying his ideas doesn't count? As far as I can tell, nobody will admit that ID is falsifiable because you don't want to admit that ID is falsifiable. But you still have this nasty problem that if certain ongoing research turns out a certain way, then certain people (not just me) will drop ID. If that isn't textbook falsifiability, then I don't know what is.

Flint · 23 February 2005

As far as I know, the ID explanation to "Why is the sky blue?" is the same as the naturalist's answer, viz., because light waves corresponding to the color blue are scattered by the earth's atmosphere.

This is a remarkably informative answer. People ask two questions: why is the sky blue, and why do life forms change over time. In both cases, after some investigation and collection of evidence, satisfactory mechanisms have been identified. Now, we could go one step further and ask why those mechanisms are the way they are and not some other way. And here is where the theists have an answer that satisfies them ('because that's what God intended') and the non-theists have their own answer ('because that's the way it works'). But I notice that Finley has permitted the intermediate step, the identification of mechanism, in one case but disallowed it in the second. God designed his universe in such a way that our atmosphere is blue, but did NOT design his universe in such a way that life evolves. Why not? I speculate that the first mechanism doesn't conflict with doctrine, and the second does. Then again, nobody has ever suggested that creationists are consistent.

Flint · 23 February 2005

As far as I can tell, nobody will admit that ID is falsifiable because you don't want to admit that ID is falsifiable.

This is just self-serving. What Heddle has done is specified something that will satisfy HIM that ID has been falsified (though it's not clear whether his conditions are in principle capable of investigation. They might be), but it's extremely doubtful that any other creationist would be satisfied. If we discover that our universe had no beginning or is one of an infinity of universes, well, that's just the way God did it! He created an infinite number of eternal universes (there's no requirement that it had a beginning even so since God controls time) because, well, God need not explain His motivations to us. It's all creation. Heddle doesn't seem to grasp that ID is not falsifiable in principle, EVEN IF he's willing under hell-freezes-over circumstances to change his mind. He might as well argue that the way to falsify ID is to administer a frontal lobotomy to every creationist.

Grey Wolf · 23 February 2005

David Heddle said:

I never claimed ID as a scientific theory

Ok, so what is DHID*? If it is just your belief, your revelation or your intuitive truth, it is irrelevant for me (or anyone else except you, most likely). In fact, if it is not a scientific theory, why do you want to show it is falsifiable? What difference would it make? Why do you subject us to it? And once again, I remind you that I was talking to DaveScot, and thus using his ID, which is Behe's and Dembski's ID (or close enough, anyway). I asked how that ID could be falsified. I'm still waiting. I had not touched your theory at all, and now that you have told me that is it not a theory at all, frankly, I am not interested in hearing a word about it. Hope that helps, Grey Wolf *DHID: David Heddle's Intelligent Design

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Flint:

Heddle doesn't seem to grasp that ID is not falsifiable in principle, EVEN IF he's willing under hell-freezes-over circumstances to change his mind. He might as well argue that the way to falsify ID is to administer a frontal lobotomy to every creationist.

No, I can quote ways that Gonzalez and Richards list for falsifying ID. They are not the same as what I posted. They are all, in principle, doable. So at least according to Heddle, Gonzalez, Richards, and Ross ID is falsifiable. As for the hell freezing over, you are sidestepping the fact that I am not talking about research that "in principle" could be done to falsify ID, but research that *IS* being done. Grey Wolf: The DHID is childish. As I pointed out, I do not have a unique view of ID.

Michael Finley · 23 February 2005

I notice that Finley has permitted the intermediate step, the identification of mechanism, in one case but disallowed it in the second. God designed his universe in such a way that our atmosphere is blue, but did NOT design his universe in such a way that life evolves. Why not? I speculate that the first mechanism doesn't conflict with doctrine, and the second does. Then again, nobody has ever suggested that creationists are consistent.

— Flint
I would disagree that this is an accurate account of my position. Let me try and clarify. My position can can be summed up in a single sentence: Try to natural explanations, and if, in a given circumstance, none are forthcoming, consider supernatural explanations. Let me be clear: I am not in principle oppossed to completely natural explanations (excluding the first principle of the universe), but by the same token, I am also not in principle oppossed to supernatural explanations. Admittedly, it is a philosophical position, but the foundations of science are the province of philosophy, not science. Take Behe's example of the bacterial flagellum. I am willing to grant that Behe may be completely wrong, i.e., that the system is not irreducible, or even that "irreducible" faces conceptual difficulties here. Were either the case, they would be legitimate criticisms of Behe. What, in my estimation, is not legitimate is the criticism of supernatural causes per se. Consider it this way. Suppose, ex hypothesi, that natural explanations of the origin of a particular biological system were not forthcoming, and there were good arguments against the probability of such an explanation. Are supernatural cuases an option? If not, why not? It could be replied that there are natural explanations of the system in question, and the arguments against the probability of natural explanations are poor. Be that as it may, it would be a dodge of my question.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Gonzalez and Richards list these ways to falsify or at least damage their theory:

1)To find a distant environment that was hostile to life and yet a better place than earth for making scientific observations.

2)Find complex life where they claim you won't find it--say on a gas giant, or near a x-ray emitting star in the galactic center, or on a planet without a dark night, etc.

3)Find complex life on a planet that does not have a large moon (that produces good solar eclipses.)

4) Find non-Carbon based life

Flint · 23 February 2005

Michael Finlay:

My position can can be summed up in a single sentence: Try to natural explanations, and if, in a given circumstance, none are forthcoming, consider supernatural explanations.

I hope that you understand that I consider this answer at best disingenuous. Natural explanations of how life changes over time are more than merely forthcoming, they are overwhelming. And so I certainly respect your generic position that if explanation A is lacking B is an acceptable default. But when A is abundant and STILL regarded as lacking, this is NOT a valid application of your generic position. This is doctrine.

I am not in principle oppossed to completely natural explanations (excluding the first principle of the universe), but by the same token, I am also not in principle oppossed to supernatural explanations.

This position I regard as quite dangerous, because supernatural explanations are (1) possible to apply without the need for the slightest hint of evidence; and (2) as a result,impossible to dislodge by any conceivable evidence. So my personal philosophy is, don't accept "it's magic, no need to wonder any more" instead of "I haven't a clue, but I'm still looking for one."

Suppose, ex hypothesi, that natural explanations of the origin of a particular biological system were not forthcoming, and there were good arguments against the probability of such an explanation. Are supernatural cuases an option? If not, why not?

I think I've covered this, but perhaps I can explain it slightly differently. I'm suspicious of your word "forthcoming", because in your usage, it sounds disconcertingly like "good enough to satisfy me, and NO natural explanation can satisfy me." In other words, it sounds like you have started and ended with the conviction that biological systems appear and change by magic, and now you're asking what's wrong with this conviction. There is some semantic question as to whether the phrase "supernatural causes" even parses out. Certainly the notion does serious insult to the meaning of "cause". It's nearly the definition of "supernatural" as meaning "happens without any cause at all." But ultimately, I guess I fall back on the observation that the assumption of natural causes, and the search for them if they are unknown, has a fabulously successful track record. The presumption of magic has a terrible track record.

It could be replied that there are natural explanations of the system in question, and the arguments against the probability of natural explanations are poor. Be that as it may, it would be a dodge of my question.

Let's be careful not to change the subject here. You are addressing two separate issues on this thread: Whether or not giving up any hope of finding natural causes before even looking (or alternatively rejecting causes even after they have been found in spades) in preference for magical explanations is valid (and to this question, I reply that I find such a policy perverse and useless), and whether IN FACT natural explanations have been provided in the specific issues of biology (and they have, in abundance and in detail), So back to the top: fully sufficient natural explanations have been provided for both evolution and the blue sky. You reject the first, and accept the second, for no reason I can see other than religious preference. I have no objection to religious preferences, so long as you don't try to pretend it's anything else. My own ignorance is vast, but I don't fill it by making stuff up, or by claiming magic. If (for REAL) no explanation is forthcoming, I can accept that I remain ignorant about that particular item. When nearly every specialist in the world has accepted an explanation (which has in turn produced countless useful and successful predictions), I needn't share their specialty to recognize that a good and sufficient answer has been found. If, not sharing their specialty, I continue to deny that any answer is forthcoming, I'm not doing so out of ignorance, but out of an unshakeable conviction that some alternative explanation is superior. And so (as I just said) I can state that I prefer my explanation for religious reasons. It's simply dishonest for me to say that their explanation doesn't exist!

Flint · 23 February 2005

David Heddle:

OK, this is kind of interesting. After all, if someone agrees that ID has been falsified, what they are necessarily agreeing is that God might not have created what ID creationists are crediting Him with. They are, in essence, specifying criteria by which design can be distinguished from non design. But as I tried to say, this means that they can (at least hypothetically) point to something and say with full confidence that God didn't create it. And THAT I'll believe when I see it!

Your sources are basically saying, life as we know it is the only kind of life God could possibly have made, and if we find life as we don't know it (AND identify it as life, AND agree that it's life, both of which are highly unlikely if it is NOT life as we know it) then there was no designer! But if I were a creationist, I'd laugh at this. Why can't my omniscient God do whatever He wills?

Buridan · 23 February 2005

What exactly are "supernatural causes"? For some reason, it doesn't sound quite right. They're certainly not natural causes, so how are we to understand causation as a supernatural event. For that matter, how are we to understand "supernatural events"? What distinguishes the two?

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Flint:

OK, this is kind of interesting. After all, if someone agrees that ID has been falsified, what they are necessarily agreeing is that God might not have created what ID creationists are crediting Him with...this means that they can (at least hypothetically) point to something and say with full confidence that God didn't create it. And THAT I'll believe when I see it!

I don't agree. To me, falsifying ID means that God has not left any evidence that he created something. It doesn't mean he didn't create it. For example, if parallel universes were demonstrated, I would lose the evidence that God created the universe. But I wouldn't have to abandon the belief. I just couldn't call it ID anymore. It would just be old fashioned faith. Actually what Gonzalez and Richards say is not restricted to finding life as we "don't" know it. If you find garden variety carbon based intelligent life on a planet that doesn't experience good solar eclipses, they say that would damage their theory. I think you all are making a blanket statement like "You cannot falsify ID" when what you really mean is something like "You cannot falsify ID to a YECer."

Joe the Ordinary Guy · 23 February 2005

I flatter myself that I can contribute something useful to this discussion, so here goes: Michael Finley wrote:

Are supernatural causes an option? If not, why not?

The reason that science confines (if you can call it that) itself to "naturalistic materialism" is that the goal of science is to help human beings to Do Stuff. Science seeks to advance knowledge of the natural material world because that's where we ARE. If we as humans want to DO anything, we have to do it in the natural material world. We cannot operate RELIABLY in the supernatural realm. So it behooves us to understand the natural material aspects of our world, since this is where we are going to spend our lives. Does the supernatural exist? Probably. Is it important? Probably. Can we understand its workings and use that understanding to DO stuff? Well, no. Oh, certainly there are those who CLAIM to do that now, but they cannot demonstrably do so. It's extremely unlikely that you can build a bridge using ONLY prayer. It's POSSIBLE, (in the sense that God can do anything) but I wouldn't book the brass band for the dedication ceremony too far in advance. Should we study and investigate the supernatural? Certainly. That has been the purview of religion for millennia. But it's not science -- BY DEFINITION! It's a useful and valid avenue of human inquiry. But it is no more Science than Wood Shop is Home Ec. They are DIFFERENT. You study them in isolation for just that reason. If you wish to employ the natural and supernatural, in conjunction, in one or more areas of your life, that's fine. But they are not best Studied that way. And by extension, they are not best TAUGHT that way.

ts · 23 February 2005

1)To find a distant environment that was hostile to life and yet a better place than earth for making scientific observations. 2)Find complex life where they claim you won't find it---say on a gas giant, or near a x-ray emitting star in the galactic center, or on a planet without a dark night, etc. 3)Find complex life on a planet that does not have a large moon (that produces good solar eclipses.) 4) Find non-Carbon based life

These are all notably extreme cases of what Popper would call "non-risky" predictions. I've got a hypothesis that there are non-material space goblins living in the middle of the sun that love chocolate truffles and gobble up any within reach. All you have to do to falsify my theory is to find a chocolate truffle in the middle of the sun.

ts · 23 February 2005

1)To find a distant environment that was hostile to life and yet a better place than earth for making scientific observations. 2)Find complex life where they claim you won't find it---say on a gas giant, or near a x-ray emitting star in the galactic center, or on a planet without a dark night, etc. 3)Find complex life on a planet that does not have a large moon (that produces good solar eclipses.) 4) Find non-Carbon based life

These are all notably extreme cases of what Popper would call "non-risky" predictions. I've got a hypothesis that there are non-material space goblins living in the middle of the sun that love chocolate truffles and gobble up any within reach. All you have to do to falsify my theory is to find a chocolate truffle in the middle of the sun.

Flint · 23 February 2005

David Heddle:

I don't agree. To me, falsifying ID means that God has not left any evidence that he created something. It doesn't mean he didn't create it.

Why do I feel I'm chasing the horizon? ID says that biological organisms were designed by an intelligent designer. Are you seriously proposing that the designer theory is "falsified" simply by saying that if the designer did such a seamless job of design He left behind no good evidence, therefore although things WERE STILL DESIGNED, the proposal that they were designed is falsified? David, if ID is falsified, then THERE WAS NO INTELLIGENT DESIGN! NONE! Falsified means shown to be false. If the claim is design, falsifying it means showing there WAS NO DESIGN. Doesn't this even begin to penetrate? Your claim that things were STILL intelligently design even if Intelligent Design is falsified contradicts itself immediately. You are simply affirming that your faith is true EVEN IF IT'S FALSE. Can't get much more religious than that.

If you find garden variety carbon based intelligent life on a planet that doesn't experience good solar eclipses, they say that would damage their theory.

Maybe you can explain to me why carbon-based life on dark planets couldn't have been designed? After all, to meet any of our notions of life, it would almost HAVE to have been designed. Certainly we'd have to seriously rethink a great deal of our understanding of not just biology, but most of chemistry.

Flint · 23 February 2005

David Heddle:

I don't agree. To me, falsifying ID means that God has not left any evidence that he created something. It doesn't mean he didn't create it.

Why do I feel I'm chasing the horizon? ID says that biological organisms were designed by an intelligent designer. Are you seriously proposing that the designer theory is "falsified" simply by saying that if the designer did such a seamless job of design He left behind no good evidence, therefore although things WERE STILL DESIGNED, the proposal that they were designed is falsified? David, if ID is falsified, then THERE WAS NO INTELLIGENT DESIGN! NONE! Falsified means shown to be false. If the claim is design, falsifying it means showing there WAS NO DESIGN. Doesn't this even begin to penetrate? Your claim that things were STILL intelligently design even if Intelligent Design is falsified contradicts itself immediately. You are simply affirming that your faith is true EVEN IF IT'S FALSE. Can't get much more religious than that.

If you find garden variety carbon based intelligent life on a planet that doesn't experience good solar eclipses, they say that would damage their theory.

Maybe you can explain to me why carbon-based life on dark planets couldn't have been designed? After all, to meet any of our notions of life, it would almost HAVE to have been designed. Certainly we'd have to seriously rethink a great deal of our understanding of not just biology, but most of chemistry.

David Heddle · 23 February 2005

Flint: Falsifying ID is not the equivalent of falsifying God. Falsifying ID means there is no evidence of anything other than natural means for things to be the way they are. Why is this a tough concept? Like you (I think) said, God could have made parallel universes. With one universe, I can claim the fine tuning is evidence for design--for I don't see any other credible explanation. With parallel universes, I have to acknowledge the anthropic arguments rather than ID. But God is not falsified--only the claim that there is physical evidence of his handiwork. What's the big deal?

Maybe you can explain to me why carbon-based life on dark planets couldn't have been designed?

I could give their argument (it is actually for planets without a dark night--which means too close to other stars), but it is not germane. After all, we (thankfully) are not debating whether their theory is correct, but only whether it is falsifiable.

Wayne Francis · 23 February 2005

David "What evidence would falsify ID" != "What evidence would make David Heddle not believe in ID" There can be no evidence that falsifies ID because you can't claim restrict an all powerful being. Perhaps there are multiple universes. Perhaps "God" is working in a lab spawning off universes seeing how the form. Maybe "God" has control over the parameters of the universe and didn't really realise that "carbon based life" might be an emergent property of some of the universes "God" has created. Maybe the "God" of this universe is the equivalent to a high school student in some other universe far more advanced then us doing a lab experiment as part of some science class we could never be able to grasp the concept of. Maybe they live in a full 11 large dimensions. Who knows. You can't say its falsified in any way. Even if "God" appeared before us there is no way we can be sure that "God" is the beginning. Maybe "God" has a creator but God's head is to big to admit that God had some creator. It theology, its abstract ideas. It can not be falsified. You might not believe it but that does not mean it is falsified. You asked for evidence that would falsify evolution....well, as it was said before, it would talk a lot of evidence to falsify it. More importantly you would need a theory that explained what we see better then evolution. Even with John A Davison, Charlie Wagner, and DaveScot their explanation is just that the information has been front loaded. We don't have any evidence to that. If the information was front loaded then there is no real reason why Humans didn't appear on the scene soon after the first life. Their misguided hypothesis doesn't explain what we see and what we know. JAD says speciation no longer occurs as part of his hypothesis. This has been shown to be false with

Drosophila paulistorum developed hybrid sterility of male offspring between 1958 and 1963. Artificial selection induced strong intra-strain mating preferences. (Test for speciation: sterile offspring and lack of interbreeding affinity.)

JAD then moved the goal post DaveScot is totally inconsistent by in one breath saying that species are immutable but in another says Amoeba dubia has all the genetic information for all life on earth and its ready to evolve into many different life forms after an asteroid hits. Don't even get me started about him saying that machines are examples of "novel new body plans" for humans in a biological sense Charlie Wagner also claims front loading but he states that non supernatural aliens that are restricted to our universe that have always been around created life on earth. We know mutations occur. We know mutations can be beneficial. We know mutations can be selected for by natural selection. We know mutations can provide new functionality We know that enough mutations will cause speciation to occur. We know that life has got more complex as time has passed. The exact mechanisms are still being investigated. The mechanisms may be falsified but JAD, CW and DS's hypotheses are currently not among the ideas that might replace evolution because there are more problems with their ideas then there is with the current theories.

Bob Maurus · 23 February 2005

David Heddle,

I think we've been here before. You said,
"With one universe, I can claim the fine tuning is evidence for design---for I don't see any other credible explanation."

Would you mind laying out the scientific basis for that conclusion? Bear in mind that I consider it a prime example of what I call "Lookingback." Let me explain.

From the perspective of the self-proclaimed culmination, everything which preceded us happened specifically to facilitate us. Any claim of fine-tuning therefore explicitly claims that we were the before-the-fact planned and intended result of the meticulous design of everything, including mass extinctions, weather anomalies, local disasters, and anything else you want to toss into the mix. Your God set up a sequence that wiped out up to 90+% of all life on earth multiple times as a path to us. Kinda strains credulity, don't you think?

Air Bear · 23 February 2005

David Heddle wrote:

"I don't use ID in my work, except to the extent that I believe everyone's approach and choice of topics is influenced by their personal beliefs. (For example, I wouldn't do research on morning-after pills, and some won't do research that may have defense related applications.)"

You're making ID sound an awful lot like philosophical inspiration, like the Eightfold Way, rather than actual science. Probably every scientist has philosophical presuppositions -- say, that it is wrong that people must live in misery -- but those presuppositions are not part of science. Work on plant genetics may be motivated by the desire to end world hunger, but such desires cannot be used to test hypotheses.

I don't know that it leads to discoveries.

Oh? Then what is ID good for, then?

I would have to think about the blue sky---that is related to our atmosphere which is related to many other things that I do believe have design implications, including our moon. So in some sense the blue sky (and especially a sky transparent in a certain frequency range) is tied to design. However, if I were researching the blue sky, I would look at Rayleigh scattering.

Wow. The sky being transparent to the same frequencies that the eye is sensitive to, is an example of Intelligent Design!? The Designer coordinated the two phenomena? How about the naturalistic explanation, that eyes EVOLVED to be sensitive to those frequencies that make it to the Earths surface? Sounds like an exercise in making things up. If you think about it long and hard enough, you can imagine that there's a design in there somewhere. Again, you make ID sound like a philosophical inspiration rather than a scientific principle. What aspects of our moon appear to be designed by the Intelligent Being? Are aspects of all moons of all planets designed by the Intelligent Being, or just some of them? Is IC involved somehow, or is the evidence for ID in non-living things different from evidence for ID in living things? If so, what are the scientific implications and testable hypotheses derived therefrom? You're treading on dangerous ground here. If you admit to believing that heavenly bodies show evidence of Intelligent Design, then space aliens or other mundane intelligent agents are pretty much ruled out as the source of the Design; only God could pull off designs of the scale you're talking about. If so, then the protestations by IDers about being agnostic about the identity of the Intelligent Designer sound disengenuous or ignorant. I think it's best to stick with "The heavens declare the glory of God; and the firmament sheweth his handywork." (Psalms 19:1) and leave it at that. The religious impulse and reverence for Nature are good enough inspirations for one's life's work; don't try to pretend that they're an actual part of science.

Thanks for the correction (yellow-green.). You are wrong, however, that any high school physics student knows this. In all the years I taught college physics, I don't think a single student was aware of this fact. I think you are employing hyperbole here.

Sorry for the "every shoolboy knows ..." comment. I was trying to think back to when I first learned about yellow-green, and it seems to fit in with color theory that I first became aware of in high school. This is just one of those things that every technically-educated person should know.

Wayne Francis · 23 February 2005

Man I shouldn't post when I have the flu....my post doesn't read as well as it should. Flame me all you want.

Buridan · 23 February 2005

Wayne, I don't know what the hell you're talking about. "It theology, its abstract ideas." Lay off the NyQuil dude!

Naw, I'm just bustin your balls :-)

David Heddle · 24 February 2005

Wayne:

There can be no evidence that falsifies ID because you can't claim to restrict an all powerful being.

Yes, that is what others are saying. With that irrefutable comeback, I claim it is then disingenuous to ask the question. And I also claim you (they) are not really asking "how can I falsify ID?" but are only pretending to ask that. You are really asking "how can I falsify God?" which more-or-less everyone has agreed, through the ages, is impossible.

You asked for evidence that would falsify evolution

Actually I didn't. I said that the pre Cambrian human fossil is a nonsense example of falsifiability. And I said that you can't be sure that any particular result would falsify evolution for everybody. Some would have their foundations shaken before others.

More importantly [to falsify evolution] you would need a theory that explained what we see better then evolution.

Why? At least in principle that is not a requirement for falsifying a theory. Certainly a theory can be falsified, leaving us in a state of "it looks like at the moment we just don't know." A theory can be falsified without being supplanted. Hope you are feeling better. Bob Maurus:

Would you mind laying out the scientific basis for that conclusion?

Not here. I have done that elsewhere and would be happy to do it again, but I wanted to keep this subthread about falsifying ID, not ID itself.

Kinda strains credulity, don't you think?

No. Air Bear:

You're making ID sound an awful lot like philosophical inspiration, like the Eightfold Way, rather than actual science.

That is pretty close to how I think about it.

Then what is ID good for, then?

As a framework. Frameworks are useful in science and philosophy, even if they themselves are not very predictive. The parallel universes research is a similar example. Now since my claim of fasifiability were denied on the basis that it applied only to my private ID, so should my claims that ID is not strictly a science and not (meaningfully) predictive. That applies just to "DHID." You can make some predictions, of course. The obvious ones are just the opposite of the falsifying results. If parallel universes falsify ID, then ID predicts that parallel universes will not be detected.

GCT · 24 February 2005

Sorry I don't get it. (BTW, I never claimed ID as a scientific theory.) This business of "my" version of ID is nonsense. First of all, why do Dembski and Behe (I have read some of Behe) own ID? The ID in the book The Privileged Planet is very similar to what I believe. They also list many ways that ID can be falsified. Does that not count because they (Gonzalez and Richards) are not Dembski or Behe? Or Hugh Ross? I agree with much of what he writes---but falsfying his ideas doesn't count? As far as I can tell, nobody will admit that ID is falsifiable because you don't want to admit that ID is falsifiable. But you still have this nasty problem that if certain ongoing research turns out a certain way, then certain people (not just me) will drop ID. If that isn't textbook falsifiability, then I don't know what is.

— David Heddle
1. If ID is not scientific, why even worry about falsification? 2. No, Dumbski (sic) and Behe don't own ID, they are just as disingenuous as anyone else who tries to push ID as science. 3. This is what you have been waiting for: ID is falsifiable, but only as a philosophical/religious idea. It is not scientifically falsifiable because it is not scientific. That doesn't mean that scientific means can't be used to falsify one's personal philosophy, but it also doesn't make ID scientific. Furthermore, ID can not be scientific because it relies on a supernatural cause, which by definition can not be proven nor disproven (falsified) by natural means, which are the only things we have available to us, which you seem to agree with in the next quote:

Yes, that is what others are saying. With that irrefutable comeback, I claim it is then disingenuous to ask the question. And I also claim you (they) are not really asking "how can I falsify ID?" but are only pretending to ask that. You are really asking "how can I falsify God?" which more-or-less everyone has agreed, through the ages, is impossible.

— David Heddle again
It's not disingenuous to ask when someone pushes ID as a scientific theory. That's the whole point. If ID is scientific, then it must be scientifically refutable. If you are not pushing ID as science, and it appears that you aren't, then the discussion is moot.

Flint · 24 February 2005

David Heddle: I can see that we aren't communicating, and I can also see that we probably can't communicate. I'll try one more time.

Falsifying ID is not the equivalent of falsifying God.

Yes it is! Falsifying ID means demonstrating conclusively that design did not happen and could not happen. There is a vast qualitative difference between (1)demonstrating that something is false; and (2) Not demonstrating that it's true.

Falsifying ID means there is no evidence of anything other than natural means for things to be the way they are.

Absolutely wrong! Amazingly wrong. David, you don't seem to have any idea of what it means to falsify something. If an incorrect hypothesis is proposed, it is falsified by the observation of contradictory evidence. That evidence means that the hypothesis is WRONG. If no such evidence is found, the hypothesis is not falsified. That doesn't mean it's true, only that it has not yet been shown to be wrong. Lack of evidence does not and can not falsify anything. Falsification means actual contradictory evidence. If contradictory evidence cannot be produced, ID cannot be falsified.

Why is this a tough concept?

I don't know. It shouldn't be. To falsify ID, you must produce positive, reproducible evidence that contradicts ID. If finding such evidence is impossible in principle (as it is), then ID cannot be falsified. If such evidence CAN be produced but so far HAS NOT been produced, then ID is a valid hypothesis pending contradictory evidence. If no evidence can be found either for OR against ID (as is actually the case) then ID is a scientifically empty concept. There is an infinity of hypotheses for which no relevant evidence has ever been discovered. Incidentally, this is why no scientific theory can be proved true. Every theory, every hypothesis can be PROVED false, at least in some respects, beyond any doubt or probability. Conflicting evidence shows that a hypothesis is WRONG WRONG WRONG! Supporting evidence doesn't mean the hypothesis is right, only that it's more probable and falsifying observations haven't yet been made -- but they might be!

Like you (I think) said, God could have made parallel universes.

God COULD have done anything whatsoever. God is defined as omnipotent.

David Heddle · 24 February 2005

It's an absurd stance. Some of us who are IDers tell you the experimental results that would make us abandon ID, and yet you insist that ID is unfalsifiable.

So what do you call it if:

Day 1: I am a diehard ID proponent
Day 2: Experimental detection of another universe is announced
Day 3: I renounce ID

And, after you tell me that, tell me what this is called:

Day 1: I am a diehard steady-state universe proponent
Day 2: Experimental detection of the expansion of the universe is announced
Day 3: I renounce the steady-state view of the universe

Wayne Francis · 24 February 2005

David I want to get your position straight. Do you agree that evolution is falsifiable. The thought of things like 50 million year old homo sapian fossils is crazy just as a blue M class star is crazy. But if either of these where found we would have to seriously look the theories that say they shouldn't exsist. I couldn't make a post better then TS's comment # 17633 I personally don't think you can prove/disprove ID if the creator is supernatural. Nor do I care to try. Most people here don't care to try to prove or disprove "God". Can you elaborate on your this from Comment # 6835

how do you falsify the aspects of evolution that go beyond genetics?

— David Heddle
Like others have said the only reason we would not expect to find humans in 50 million year old strata is because of evolution. If we did find one that old it wouldn't be a miracle. It would be a 50 million year old fossil of a homo sapian that we would have to tr to figure out what happened. Would this collapse evolution? It would be a big blow to the theory as it stands .... but just go with TS's comments. They are much more sensable and not far fetched.

David Heddle · 24 February 2005

Yes I believe evolution is falsifiable. I didn't always think so. When you aren't being called stupid, liar, troll, moron, idiot, crack-head, and, most recently, a child abuser, you can occasionally learn something on this site.

Im am not sure how you want me to elaborate on that question (how do you falsify the aspects of evolution that go beyond genetics?) I don't what I was thinking about at that time. Probably looking for falsification in speciation.

ts · 24 February 2005

There can be no evidence that falsifies ID because you can't claim to restrict an all powerful being. Yes, that is what others are saying. With that irrefutable comeback, I claim it is then disingenuous to ask the question.

So, if we don't believe that ID is falsifiable, then it is disingenuous to ask Heddle how one would falsify ID. How droll. And how intellectually corrupt. What is clearly disingenuous is for Heddle to claim that ID is falsifiable ("for me") when it clearly isn't, and to continue to offer up ways that it could be "falsified" that clearly aren't examples of falsification -- disconfirming evidence. Demonstrating to Heddle's personal satisfaction that God did not design us has everything to do with his religious commitments and nothing at all to do with science -- and only the most incredibly disingenuous person would deny it. Tara Smith writes to me complaining that calling people "moronic trolls" "makes us all look bad" -- but what is she writing to David Heddle? If Heddle's sort of bad faith and intellectual dishonesty doesn't make scientists look bad, then nothing does.

Tara Smith · 24 February 2005

Tara Smith writes to me complaining that calling people "moronic trolls" "makes us all look bad" --- but what is she writing to David Heddle? If Heddle's sort of bad faith and intellectual dishonesty doesn't make scientists look bad, then nothing does.

I certainly agree that there are people who carry the label "scientist" who are intellectually dishonest. However, they are not on this site and supporting my position. ts is. As such, I tend to hold people on "my side" of an argument to a higher standard than I do those on the "other side." I feel my arguments can be presented, and judged to be superior, without resorting to calling those on the other side of the aisle "trolls" or other such assorted insults. As such, I'm going to close this for comments at this time. Thank you all for the discussion, and my apologies to those of you who were insulted due to your position. I think that, as adults, we can and should be above that and have good discussion even among those who strongly disagree; and will likely be a bit quicker with the edit function in future posts. Tara Smith