Two previous entries on this blog by John Lynch have discussed the scientific output (or lack thereof) of two intelligent design superstars, Jonathan Wells and Michael Behe. Despite claims that both of these ID supporters are actively engaged in research, Lynch documents that they have published little or no scientific research in the last six years. Now let's look at the record of another one of ID's superstars, William Dembski.
The principal review journal in mathematics is Mathematical Reviews and its online version, called MathSciNet. Both are projects of the American Mathematical Society. The description of MathSciNet states that it is "a comprehensive database covering the world's mathematical literature since 1940." And it really is comprehensive: about 70,000 new reviews are added each year.
I searched MathSciNet for Dembski's publications. Exactly four are listed: a paper called "Uniform probability" that was published in the Journal of Theoretical Probability in 1990; a survey article called "Randomness by design" that appeared in the philosophical journal Noûs in 1991; his 1998 Cambridge University Press book The Design Inference, and his 2002 book No Free Lunch. That's it.
Dembski's CV lists one other scientific publication (a 1990 article in the Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation that was not reviewed by Mathematical Reviews). It also lists a preprint entitled "Random Predicate Logic I" that Dembski posted in 2002 (although it was apparently written in 1990).
To understand how sparse this output is, you need to know that the average research mathematician publishes something like 1-2 research papers each year. Mathematicians at small colleges typically publish less because they have more teaching duties, while those with postdoctoral positions or research positions typically publish more. Dembski received his Ph. D. in mathematics in 1988. By this time, a typical university mathematician would have published something like 15-30 papers in the peer-reviewed mathematical literature; Dembski has published two. (I do not count the paper in Noûs since that journal is a philosophy journal and the paper has no original mathematical research in it.)
Of course, the number of published papers is not the only measure of scientific output. A good researcher could publish a small number of papers with large impact. So it is worthwhile to see how often Dembski's papers have been cited in the scientific literature. I used the ISI Web of Science (previously called Science Citation Index) to see how often Dembski's work was cited. His 1991 Noûs article has been cited five times (once by Beckwith in the Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy and four other citations, including one in Paleobiology, but none in mathematics journals); his 1990 Journal of Theoretical Probability article has been cited twice (once again by Beckwith and once by L. Olsen in the Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society); his 1990 article in Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation has been cited three times (once again by Beckwith, once by Sober, and once by Barbour -- none in mathematics journals). Since important papers often receive dozens or even hundreds of citations, this suggests that Dembski's work has not been very influential among practicing scientists or mathematicians.
Of course, Dembski has been very busy with other projects. His CV lists many articles and reviews in religious periodicals such as First Things and Princeton Theological Review. I do not criticize his activities in other areas; after all, he is a man of many interests. It is the inflation of his mathematical and scientific credentials that I find inappropriate.
For example, Dembski is frequently touted as an expert on information theory; his colleague Rob Koons has called him "the Isaac Newton of information theory". But how many research papers has Dembski published on information theory? According to MathSciNet, none. (By contrast, Aaron D. Wyner, an expert in information theory who died in 1997, has 64 entries in MathSciNet stretching over 40 years, for an average of 1.6 entries per year.)
Dembski himself states in this interview in Christianity Today that he "became something of an expert in the study of randomness". But how many original research papers has Dembski published on randomness? According to MathSciNet, none (or one, if you count the survey in the philosophy journal Noûs). By contrast, Avi Wigderson, a colleague of mine who really is an expert in randomness, has 103 entries in MathSciNet (of course, not all of those are specifically about randomness).
Dembski's supporters will no doubt argue that his books represent original research. But what do mathematicians have to say about his work? David Wolpert, one of the inventors of the "No Free Lunch" theorems that inspired the title of Dembski's 2002 book, wrote a rather uncomplimentary review for Mathematical Reviews, saying that his work "is written in jello". I have criticized Dembski's mathematics here and here and here, but Dembski has never found the time to reply.
Dembski may be a fine theologian; I don't have the expertise to judge. But it is clear that hyped accolades such as "the Isaac Newton of information theory" have yet to be earned. In terms of mathematical output, Dembski is far below the median. ID advocacy appears to be an excellent way to derail a promising scientific or mathematical career.
56 Comments
mithras · 12 May 2004
Mark Perakh · 12 May 2004
Although we all knew how insignificant Dembski's mathematical output is, Jeff's detailed search provides a documented support for such an assertion. Also, whatever tiny mathematical work Dembski may have done, it is worth noticing that it all was done at the beginning of his career. It looks like he tried doing some math, but it turned out to be hard, so he chose to turn to easier pursuits. Claiming to be an expert in randomness is just another example of Dembski's amusing predilection to admire himself. Does anybody know how good his barbecue in Riesel, TX, is? If as good as his math, who would want to pay for it?
Gwangi · 12 May 2004
Katarina · 12 May 2004
Dembski's audience doesn't care how good of a mathematician he is. He is in the front lines and if you materialists can't see the bigger picture well, that just means Dembski has surpassed you!
shiva pennathur · 13 May 2004
Katrina says "Dembski's audience doesn't care....". Thanks for making that clear. Dembski's audience (includes you?) and many of us on the side of science seem to think alike. Dembski's no mathematician? Dembski has a hard time accepting that he isn't doing anything mathematical or scientific (regardless of the PhDs he's earned). Now maybe his audience shd help him understand that?
Aaron · 13 May 2004
"Dembski's audience doesn't care how good of a mathematician he is. He is in the front lines and if you materialists can't see the bigger picture well, that just means Dembski has surpassed you!"
I believe Jefferey's purpose is not to malign Dembski but merely to point out that Dembski can no more call himself an expert in math than Roger Penrose can call himself an expert in theology.
Drieux · 14 May 2004
Katarina wrote:
"Dembski's audience doesn't care how good of a mathematician he is. He is in the front lines and if you materialists can't see the bigger picture well, that just means Dembski has surpassed you!"
Hmm...If we're matrialists, does that make you and your ilk spiritualists?
Just curious....
Drieux
Alex Fradera · 14 May 2004
I'm almost certain that Katarina was being wry... anyway, I think I can start calling myself a respected research mathmatician now. I'm just 2 papers away from Dembski...
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Russell · 26 July 2004
I'm glad to see we have a new visitor who is knowledgeable in math and statistics who seems favorably inclined toward Dembski. Maybe he can explain this higher plane of thought to us mere biology types who find the whole ID enterprise so unconvincing.
Introducing a comment with "someone insignificant wrote", however, does not bode well in terms of attitude.
Reed A. Cartwright · 26 July 2004
You should see what O'Brien posted on EvoMath 0.
Pim van Meurs · 26 July 2004
O'Brien: You are in no position to comment on Dembski's mathematical contributions or ability because you are not even remotely a mathematician.
Since Dembski's mathematical contributions or lack thereof are even obvious to the non-mathematicians your comment sounds a little silly.
But if you want mathematicians comment on Dembski then for instance you would appreciate Wolpert's comments about http://www.talkreason.org/articles/jello.cfm]Dembski: William Dembski's treatment of the No Free Lunch theorems is written in jello?
Cheers
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 26 July 2004
Interesting how o'Brien seems to be moving the goalposts. First it was 'Dembski's mathematical contributions' now it is mathematical prowess... When confronted with the quite strong comments about Dembski's mathematical 'prowess' in NFL, Wolpert had to conclude that Dembski's treatment of the NFL theorems was written in jello.
Since Dembski's claims are hardly that 'mathematical' although (som simple) mathematics is used to obfuscate the concepts, I disagree that it would take mathematicians to point out the errors in Dembski's claims (and there are many may I add.)
Rather than disputing that non mathematicians are qualified to evaluate Dembski's claims, why not address the arguments presented by these 'non-mathematicians'?
Cheers
Russell · 26 July 2004
Before anyone's cage gets rattled unnecessarily, I note that "Robert O'Brien" has only posted a lot of braggadocio and nothing of substance.
It's quite possible that he's another prankster who doesn't particularly know or care anything about evolution or Dembski's critique of it, but just likes to rattle cages.
I, for one, propose to ignore him unless and until he writes something with some actual content.
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 26 July 2004
In other words, lets just ignore the critics' comments because it's easier to consider them to be unqualified.
I see... Interesting strawman which does allow one to ignore valid criticism.
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Bob Maurus · 26 July 2004
Mr O'Brien,
You said, ". . . You (Perakh) are in no position to comment on Dembski's mathematical contributions or ability because you are not even remotely a mathematician. By way of contrast, I am in probability and statistics . . ." and, to Pim, "What, may I ask, is your educational background?"
I wonder if you might answer the same question? What, may I ask, is your educational background?
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 26 July 2004
So you are in an excellent position to address the claims made by Dembski's critics.
And yet...
john m lynch · 26 July 2004
Reed A. Cartwright · 26 July 2004
Robert O'Brien · 26 July 2004
Wayne Francis · 27 July 2004
Forgive me for being a layman here. But how does the statement of "In terms of mathematical output, Dembski is far below the median." Take someone with a math degree to comment on? Surely counting the number of papers he has writen on one hand does not take a degree in theoretical mathematics to do.
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
Great White Wonder · 27 July 2004
Jeffrey Shallit · 27 July 2004
steve · 27 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 27 July 2004
Robert: Quality is more important than quantity, and I do not think anyone here (whom I've seen thus far) is qualified to comment on the quality of William Dembski's work.
Perhaps not qualified by your 'standards' but certainly many have been able to document the lack of quality in Dembski's arguments and achievements.
Robert, rather than addressing the claims and objections, seems to have chosen the much easier route of just ignoring it basd on his perception that these people are not qualified to raise objections...
Fascinating... i do not envy Robert's self appointed task of defending Dembski. Even with Robert's 'qualifications' it seems that Dembski may be beyond 'rescue' ;-)
Pim van Meurs · 27 July 2004
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
Reed A. Cartwright · 27 July 2004
So what? You'd think that someone who the aideeists call "the Issac Newton of Information Theory" would actually have been cited more than a handful of times. Dembski has a mediocre technical publication record and no noticible impact on mathematics.
steve · 27 July 2004
That does qualify him to be the Isaac Newton of creationism, though, Reed.
BTW, I wonder what Dembski would say about Wolpert's dismissal of his use of NFL? I think if I used a theorem to get a math result, and the theorem's co-creator came along and said I was wrong, I hadn't said anything concrete, I had failed to meet the requirements of the theorem, I would probably retract my result in embarrassment. I've got $50 says Dembski won't. Any takers?
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
Russell · 27 July 2004
john m lynch · 27 July 2004
Gentlemen: Let's not feed the troll.
Pim van Meurs · 27 July 2004
O'Brien: No, I read that part, too. Again I say, "So what." The myopia and pedantry you display in evaluating William Dembski's mathematical contributions is characteristic of people in your field.
Irony alert
Fascinating to see how O'Brien seems to undermine his own arguments.
So far nothing substantial from Robert though.
Sigh
G3 · 27 July 2004
Ian Menzies · 27 July 2004
steve · 27 July 2004
steve · 27 July 2004
$50 on Dembski? Anybody?
steve · 27 July 2004
steve · 27 July 2004
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 27 July 2004
Not even a clever retort. Of course I can understand that many of the contributions on this site may be above your comfort level, since most are actually applied science.
But so far you have yourself contributed little other than to hide behind what you seem to consider shortcomings of others.
Creationist Timmy · 27 July 2004
Don't listen to these Evilutionists Rob! I myself find your comments extremely trenchent. Obviously Dembski has these guys over a barrell and they don't know what to do so they resort to Ab Homonymn attacks. Also I like how you pointed out that Steve "Don't Write to Me Argentina" Story is just inbred. Pompus bloviaters like Dr. Wolpert need to get a clue. If they would only get their heads out of the sands of oblivion maybe they could make some real contribution(s) to sceince.
Bob Maurus · 27 July 2004
Welcome back, Timmy - you go, dude! I too am fed up to here with these evil ones suggesting that such a multi-talented individual as Dembski - a philosopher, a mathematician, and a theologian - isn't qualified to expose the utter bankruptcy of evolution, whether or not he actually knows the first thing about it. Hell, he knows about lots of other stuff, including barbecue. And, and -
And, wait a minute here - wasn't it O'Brien who was claiming that non mathematicians weren't qualified to critique Dembski's mathematics? Doesn't that mean that mathematicians aren't qualified to critique evolution, or science in general? Hetr Robert, thanks for clearing that up for me.
Creationist Timmy · 27 July 2004
I will not be fooled by your reverse psychology Bob. Like Dr. O'Brien pointed out math is superior to biology and no biologists know anything about math. To answer your question, any time any math is involved non-mathmaticians are unfit to discuss it. In fact you should not even have asked me that question.
If you would just think for a minute you would understand the truth of O'Brien's statements. He is a Paladin of Truth. David Wolpert does not understand Dr. Dembski's arguments because he is not a mathematician. Wolpert got a Ph.D in physics, so he has no idea what he is talking about in either math or biology! So I don't know how he dares making those foolish clams against Dr. Dembski.
Bob Maurus · 27 July 2004
Damn it Timmy, you saw right through me - but didn't Dr. Wolpert formulize the National Football League rules that the Rev. Dr. Dembski subsequently morphed into jello - to Dr. Wolpert's dismay - to prove his ID/DI hypotheses?
I'm not a mathematician, and I've never even played one on tv but I play Lotto South every week, so I know a lot about probability and numbers. Are your qualifications as good as mine? And isn't there some guy named Rosenhouse, or something like that, who's a mathematician, who dismantled Dembski's math?
But you may be right - how dare a physicist challenge a mathematician who challenges evolutionary biology?Sounds like some major chutzpa to me.
Robert O'Brien · 27 July 2004
G3 · 27 July 2004
Pim van Meurs · 27 July 2004
O'Brien: Hello Timmy. It is nice to see that this place is not just populated by self-important, self-aggrandizing profs and clueless undergrads.
And please don't forget clueless mathematicians in training.
Michael · 12 June 2005
Oh, O'Brien, please tell me you aren't an anti-evolutionist! Not with all the results in nonlinear dynamics that support the idea that order can come from a system which is completely probabilistically defined!
On another topic -- that of the relation between math and science -- I do have something of a reputation as an arrogant pure math student (first year grad, with my copy of Royden's Real Analysis to prove it), so to preserve my rep, I am obliged to make an argument that math is indeed superior to science. Isn't Hilbert's sixth problem, "Can physics be axiomized?", an attempt to reduce physics to a branch of mathematics? From there, it's a short step to all of science, as physics is the mother science. Of course, this does not take into account the differing techniques in the different fields, but I'm sure that's just a trifling technicality.